The cream has risen in Europe.

At the end of the group stages, demotions, pre-qualifying and ancillary qualifying, the knockout rounds have been set. 16 teams in the Champions' League and 32 in the UEA cup will go head to head for the final chalice in their respective competitions. I for one, am glad the tedium is now finally over. While the knockout rounds are still over 2 months away and there is a transfer window in between, I'll try and sketch out my initial thoughts of the draw. This is always dodgy. I make no claims of being clairevoyant - not at this stage anyway.

At the end of Matchday 6 in the Champions' League, the only surprises for me was Inter failing to beat Bayern and Celtic losing to Kobenhavn. As a result both Inter and Celtic missed out on topping their groups. While Inter may well fancy their chances against Valencia, Celtic surely do not relish their tie against Milan.

The Rossoneri may have dropped their last game against Lille but it was a dead rubber. When it comes to navigating through knockout rounds, few do it better than Milan. Celtic have the speed to trouble Milan's ageing backline but they have no hope of coping with the twin threats of Pirlo and Kaka, when on song. Form will have a large part to play in this game but Celtic may find that they are up against wily veterans who have campaigned for many springs in Europe. Milan are good for atleast another round in Europe this season - they've been lucky that their opponents are Celtic rather than someone more wily and experienced.

Inter are my dark horses and outside bets for the whole damn thing this year. They are balanced, poised and have lost their initial jitters. Valencia are excellent in Europe but seem to be slowly imploding with every passing week. However they have the personnel to be quietly confident going into this tie and if they can hold onto David Villa past January, they may well be fit to cause an upset. Their organisation and experience are their chief threats but it will be Inter who will be looking forward to this tie more than Valencia. Expect a grinding contest decided by a Stankovic header or a Villa penalty.

Arsene Wenger's remarks at the end of the draw may have been taken out of context. When he said the draw was "not an easy one" he did not necessarily mean that they had drawn a tough opponent - step forward Liverpool, who have done just that - he meant that PSV cannot be considered easy pushovers and that there are no easy games at this stage at this level. This time round there were few bunnies, if any, sitting in the pot waiting to be drawn for the group winners - even LOSC Lille may well give United a run for their money - and as such, although PSV can be considered a non heavyweight; they are by no means an easy opponent. Still, Wenger can be safe in the knowledge that PSV are not as muscular in their approach as some of the other group runners-up could be and spend time playing the ball on the ground. I doubt he would have enjoyed going head to head with Inter or Porto, definitely not with Arsenal's unease at set pieces and aerial balls.

Liverpool, 2005 winners, drew the short straw and have the plum tie of Barcelona, themselves winners last year. No one would envy them the task of dethroning the current champions of Europe - however the two glimmers of hope that Kopites can cling to, is that Benitez is a shrewd operator in Europe (2 finals with Valencia, the title with them, a 4-1 upset win over Barcelona in the 1999-2000 season) and that even though Liverpool are inconsistent at times - so are Barca. But, If Iniesta and Deco can continue their heady form while sharing the workload with the ever brilliant Ronaldinho, Liverpool are in big trouble, Gerrard's long range missiles notwithstanding.

Chelsea will meet Porto, winners in 2004. Even though Mourinho coached Porto to the summit 2 years ago, he will have his work cut out as Porot have moved on from then. Tricky winger Quaresma will terrorise Chelsea down the flanks - especially if they insist on playing a solid but narrow defensive midfield. Lucho will tease from distance, Postiga may well turn in a few close range tallies. Having said that, however, I cannot see Porto upsetting Chelski over 2 legs. There may well be some nervous moments on set pieces but Chelsea have too many tricks up their sleeves. They are far too established and settled a machine to come unstuck against Porto. If in the mood Drogba can singlehandedly bludgeon in a few goals against the Portugese leaders.

Man U seem to be on some sort of trail of redemption this season. They have mounted a furious pacesetting challenge domestically, belying their usual slow starts, they've conquered their nemesis from last season in the group stage, Benfica. Now, in Lille, they find themselves up against another one of the teams that ended their European campaign at the group stage last year. Revenge must surely be on their minds. Yes, I'll be honest, Man U are the favorites, but don't count out the plucky French outfit, Odemwingie will be a handful for the United backline, Tavlardis more than a match for Saha, their midfield capable of controlling United's gaping absence in the middle of the park. I guess we'll have to wait and see. If Man U do win, keeping with my theme of redemption, they might well be drawn against Milan next.

Real renew rivalries with Bayern. From 1998 to 2002, 4 of the 5 European Cups were won by these two clubs. So, recent pedigree and history should not be lacking when it comes to motivation. Both have fallen off the summit in recent years. More attacking, fresher upstarts in the German Bundesliga seem to be giving Bayern a run for the title while the heavyweight duopoly in La Liga has shifted back to Barcelona. Real were dressed by Arsenal last year and have stuttered this year. Bayern started very well but have slowed up a little in recent weeks. So expect this to be a stop start game depending on form and finishing. Bastian Schweinsteiger can turn the tie for Bayern along with Roy Makaay. At the same time watch for Ruud or Raul to bundle home some loose balls in the 6 yard box.

The best tie though, of the whole competition and perhaps in all of Europe this season, has to be Roma versus Lyon. Whereas Inter versus Valencia will be more tactical and at times more brutal in the sheer physicality of the tie, the aesthetic brilliance of Lyon versus Roma is hard to match. This will be a game of 2 teams commited to attacking - two teams who believe the only way to win is to score more goals than your opponent. They will go forward at every stage and send balls crossfield searching for ever more attacking options. Lyon should shade this though, if only in that they are more assured, settled and consistent than Roma. The Italians, however are more mercurial and can upset the applecart if De Rossi and Totti are in the mood. Watch for plenty of goals and some audacious shots from distance.

So, off the top of my head at first glance, these are my initial picks:

Chelsea over Porto
Milan over Celtic
Arsenal over PSV
Man U over Lille
Lyon over Roma
Barcelona over Liverpool
Bayern over Real
Inter over Valencia

Prelude to the Serengeti - Matchday 5 Part 2

Group A

If Mourinho had expected his declaration of taking the match seriously, to give Werder a filip, he was cruelly underestimating the Bundeliga side. Condescension has the habit of pulling the rug out from under your feet the odd time. And so it proved. Not only did Werder burst out of the blocks and claim an early lead that settled the match, Chelsea picked up 2 crucial injuries that leaves them exposed in certain parts of the field against Man U for their decider on the weekend. Mourinho may have wanted Werder to win anyway, but always be careful what you wish for, the cost of defeat in this case proving to be more than it's worth.

Werder may not have the financial power or global appeal of teams from Spain, Italy or England, but are every much a solid outfit. From the experienced defence to the rip roaring attack they are among the most balanced teams in Europe this year. The fact that they play a sparkling brand of football makes them all the more popular. And this win gives them real belief that they can make it through to the next stage. They were menacing from the outset in this game, direct, clinical and trying to overwhelm Chelsea with both men and balls into the final third. I doubt Chelsea would have been able to beat even if they had 'officially' tried. The fact that their progression will be at the expense of Barcelona, is the one touch of sadness that greets the conclusion of this group.

With Barcelona following the script and beating Levski, the game is very much on. This group will have a gripping end come next round. One thing is certain though, whichever of Barcelona or Werder fall out, it is the UEFA Cup's gain and the Champions' League loss.

Group B

Such is the depth of Internazionale this season that Mancini can pretty much name a completely different XI for consecutive matches and still strike fear into the hearts of their opponents. For Inter, it was a case of another cleansheet, another win, another goal by another Argentinian striker. This was the Italian team's third such win on the trot and after a serious series of opening hiccups, they are now easing through to the finishing line. Their early season malaise may well and truly be over and are boning up for the top spot in Group B at just the right time. Inter haven't been overwhelmingly dominant by any estimation. Yet, few people, myself included, will put money on Bayern holding on to the top spot in the Group B come next matchday when they host Inter in the decider for top spot.

Sporting were tenacious again, hustling and bustling for loose balls and trying to thread balls to their lone striker Alecsandro. But Inter were in ominous form, their 4-3-3 rattling up 10 shots on target, if anything the biggest surprise was Inter not adding to their tally. With this defeat Sporting ensured they will not progress but still, they are in prime position to make the UEFA CUP.

If I were a Bayern Munich fan I would be a little troubled. They lack teeth against real opposition and are strangely devoid of a ruthless streak one would expect of a team with their pretensions. They can put away teams struggling with their own demons (Inter, Hamburg, Dortmund) but come a cropper against established sides brandishing some real firepower (Werder, Stuttgart) and struggle against anyone who puts up a resemblance of a fight (Sporting, Spartak). Bayern's midfield invention comes down to the intentions of one Schweinsteiger, their attack completely reliant on the fortunes of their strikeforce of the day, their defence generally absent. Their seems to be lacking a concept of even, consistent all round play that puts paid to their hopes of being a threat in Europe this season. They drew against a superior Spartak side in a result that leaves the door open for Inter and were generally stale for large periods in this game.

Magath has his work cut out to try and stop Inter in their last game.

Group C

Liverpool continue to be a study in contrasts. Good one day, woeful the next. Sparkling one game, stale the following one. Perhaps, Benitez has given up on the marathon that is the domestic league to concentrate on the sprints of the FA Cup and the Champions' League. Whatever the reasoning may be, it clearly works in Europe where 'Pool, still unbeaten, comprehensively wrapped up top spot in the group with a controlled win in an even game against PSV. Admittedly, PSV experimented with a makeshift 4-3-3 featuring the marquee talents of Csaba Feher and Ibrahim Afellay in their starting XI (sic). But they were outfought by the home side led by the the impressive Gerrard - once again restored to his preferred place in the centre of midfield.

I doubt PSV threw the towel in pre-game, being as they were tied at the start with Liverpool on 10 points, but their reasoning behind trying a new formation in a seemingly crunch game in the Champions' League escapes me. They still matched Liverpool for large periods of the match and it was their wayward finishing, if anything, that let them down. Job well done for the Dutch though so far - they will prove tricky opponents for anyone in the second round.

The problem with groups like this (see also Group A) that are decided so early, is that interest in games between the other 2 teams, and later games in general are of minor significance. True, UEFA Cup football may be at stake but that hardly gets the pulse racing as it is more of a consolation prize. Bordeaux finally got some just rewards for their attacking verve in a good 3-1 win over a poor Gala side. One of the few bright spots for the Turkish team for Japanese midfielder Junichi Inamoto who scored a good goal. Japan can in fact take much heart from the performances of Inamoto and Nakamura this week. If they can unearth/develop/import a strong holding midfielder, they may well make the jump from being simply Asian heavyweights to Global middleweights.

It'll be good to see Bordeaux move on to the UEFA cup. Gala meanwhile have to back to the European drawing board.

Group D

Valencia emphatically wrapped things up. This may be only a small resurgence (their game against Real on the weekend will prove that) in their recent slump but it was a good game to go out and win while taking the pressure of their final game. At kickoff they knew they were only 3 points ahead of Roma, who it seemed were on a high after a 7-0 humiliation of Catania the weekend before, and knowing they had to travel to the Stadio Olimpico for what could possibly be the crunch game, took matter into their own hands (Little did they know that Roma would contrive to lose). 2 quick goals either side of the breather, and they were home. For a change Joaquin started on the right wing while the versatile Raul Albiol started in central defence and Miguel Pallardo in the engine room in the middle of the park. Beating Valencia at home is hard enough, coming back form 2 goals down is near impossible. Olympiakos do not have the guile, talent or skill to break through formations like Valencia and their organization, though commendable, it eventually counted for nought. This defeat would not have worried them as much as Shakhtar's win over Roma, a surprise to say the least. That result, more than this put their UEFA Cup participation in doubt. They have to travel to the frigid steppe in their final game and beat Shaktar to progress. Intimidating to say the least.

Roma, should, for all intents and purposes have joined their Spanish counterparts in the last 16. Yet, inexplicably, they managed to somehow lose to a nippy Shakhtar side and now have to at least draw their last game. I'd still not be unduly worried If I were a Roma supporter as they have the tie breaker against Shakhtar. But playing away, in your last game, at the Mestella no less and needing a point to be absolutely sure, is not the ideal closing to a group stage. If Shakhtar do beat Olympiakos, which is entirely possible, and Valencia hold firm at the Mestella, while nicking a goal, thereby denying Roma a win, the Italians could well and truly be headed to the UEFA cup. Their participation in Europe would continue post Christmas, but not at the Nou Camp or Bernebeu but at St James' Park and Steaua stadium in Bucharest. That would be hard luck for a team featuring the talents that Roma have. However as the saying goes, you make your own luck - still, as maddeningly inconsistent as Roma is, they would surely be a welcome addition to the later stages of the Champions' League.

Shakhtar, them of the nouveau-riche Ukrainian pretensions, have set themselves up beautifully for a spot in the last 16. A win over the Greek side could take them into the next round while anything other than a loss would still give them UEFA Cup football - where let's be honest, they would make better opponents.

Continental European football, what's left of it, is and should be all about matching up teams of equal stature and means to provide thrilling even contests. It should not be David versus Goliath goalfests featuring the usual suspects playing musical chairs with the final few places. Shakhtar would be a better match in the UEFA cup, while they would be out of their depth in the round of 16 of the Champions' League. Roma, on the other hand, would better handle the challenges that lie ahead. Keeping that in mind we should not be overtly happy if Shakhtar do make it through. Their qualification would just provide an easy tie for one of the heavyweights while cruelly unbalancing one end of the draw. In the UEFA Cup however they could go very far and as such would fit in better. Additionally, they should last longer in the UEFA cup than in its richer cousin, so the extra matches, providing extra revenue would be another side benefit, in addition to the closer matches that it will bring.

One can only hope then that the chips do fall in place come next round.

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Speaking of next round - I would like to mention that I shall not be writing about it. I will be on vacation, going on safari around an African game park. I doubt there will be much to write about though. Still I hope it's enjoyable, exciting stuff. I, myself, hope the hippos and crocodiles of the Zambezi river keep their end of the bargain. I hope to spot the next Collins Mbesuma though (hint to my destination).

Cheers.