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The Calm before the Storm II

Saturday, 10 February 07, 09:25 PM

Part 2 of 2.

We're in the final home stretch leading up to the first legs of the knockout round, here's a look at where all the various contestants stand. The engines are revving in the pit lane and we're about to embark on the warm up lap - the last few matches before they square off Feb 20/21. Who's hot, who's not and who's still looking for a working clutch pedal - or in Lyon's case a functional healthy strikeforce. All stats since the new year and accurate upto Friday Feb 9 2007.

A little wobbly

Liverpool
4 wins 1 draw 2 losses over all. In 2 cup ties: 2 home losses.

While sailing along smoothly in the league, Liverpool's showing in cup play have been worrying. Although some of those defeats can be attributed to the surely departing Jerzy Dudek, Liverpool's positioning and closing down of opposing players was poor. The talisman that is Steven Gerrard may play out the rest of the season the middle but his performances are increasingly hit or miss - terrific when on song, rubbish when not. Surely carrying an entire team on his shoulders is beginning to take it's toll.

Benitez will no doubt refocus and motivate them for the game against Barcelona - especially with the Catalan's looking a little leaden footed themselves, but Liverpool lack few matchwinners if the team as a whole is playing badly.

Lyon
3 wins 1 draw 4 losses overall . 4 cup ties. 1 home win 1 away loss 2 away wins.

I would never have thought Lyon would lose back to back matches all season, leave alone being winless in 5 in all competitions. I wouldn't write them off yet, as their collective talent, skill and experience still makes them formidable, but they do look to be reeling. Add in the fact that they replaced John Carew, whom I rate as bruising, crushing, centre forward with a rather ropey Milan Baros (goal on debut notwithstanding). Lyon's style is fast, fluid and direct. Although Baros would fit in perfectly in that style, he will need some time to gel and is still short on form. Carew however represented a different approach which could have served Lyon well if things were to ever get tight. Especially since they're still a little short on strikers.

They did notch up 2 away wins though, albeit against lower level opposition. Still, Lyon need to get a few solid wins under their belt before they meet Roma.

PSV
2 wins 2 losses overall. In 1 cup tie: 1 home win.

Think Lyon, but on a smaller scale and in Holland. PSV are still clear the top in Eredivisie but they're lead is down to 5 points and have split their 4 games. It could just be start of the year jitters coupled with the fact that they have one eye on their tie against Arsenal. Then again, AZ Alkmaar did play play but PSV were at home. The game before they were comprehensively beaten at Roda. So something's definitely up, since upto this point PSV had won 18 out of 21 with only 1 loss.

Milan
3 wins 2 draws 2 losses overall. In 4 cup ties: 1 home win 1 home draw 2 away losses.

Milan have never quite shaken off the sloth permanently all season. It seems Kaka and Pirlo are encases in this sludgy ether that prevents them from breaking free. They are mired in midtable and came unstuck in their first real test in the Coppa Italia, losing to Roma. Judging by the distance that separates them from Inter, one would have felt Milan's best chances of silverware this season would have been the Cup. Losses at Arezzo and Roma put paid that dream however and surely Ancellotti must be nervily loooking over his shoulder whenever he sees Galliani.

When teams are a little static and seem to be going through the motions without getting tangible results, common sense dictates getting a player that can turn things around and fire them up. Not at Milan though, who acquired Ronaldo, thereby ensuring that they will stay mired in the mud, both metaphorically, and judging by Ronaldo's physique, literally.

Barcelona
4 wins 3 draws 2 losses overall. In 3 cup ties: 1 home win 1 away win 1 home loss.

Being defending champions and one of the best teams in Europe has it's own set of expectations. Barcelona has not met those, ridiculously high they may be. Getafe and Espanyol first showed them to be a little impotent up front while Osasuna and Zaragoza have ensured the Catalans have gone 2 complete matches without scoring. Despite Saviola's impressive return, and Iniesta's consistent performances, Barcelona are in a slumber and need to wake up.

If the desire in Rijkaard's fist when he punched out of a glass panel during their defeat at Espanyol, could be channelled into his team, Liverpool are doomed. On current form however, Liverpool look primed for an upset.

Porto
1 win 2 losses overall. In 1 Cup tie: 1 home loss.

Hard to spot much of a trend here since they've only played 4 times. I will say this. Losing at home twice in both games since the start of the year is not the perfect tonic for a long continental run. Getting knocked out of the Cup and then losing at home to lower-midtable Estrela Amadora (gotta love the way that rolls off the tongue though) would certainly have given coach Ferreira a few worries. The integration of Argentine defender Lucas Mareque and Colombian striker Wason Renteria needs to be completed soon as well.

They still have a few games before meeting Chelsea but the gulf in class seems to have widened since 2007 started.

Wheels coming off ?

Real Madrid
2 wins 2 draws 3 losses overall. In 2 cup ties: 1 home draw 1 away draw (lost on away goals).

When purporting (however self-proclaimed) to be the world's biggest club one one expects a certain amount of class to emanate from the so ordained. Real possess none. With the death of the Galactico culture, they have ensureed that they now possess a team that is neither very good and not even marketable anymore. Their behavior after being second choice to the MLS was more worthy of 7 year old playground pup whose been told to get off the swings than a global giant about to embark on a winning run in the Champions' League.

Turns out they're pretty rubbish in the league too. Acquiring the two Argentines Higuain and Gago may pay off in the future but at the moment they are still too raw. Raul and Ruud look rustier than usual and their pathetic return of 2 goals in 7 games since the new year won't send shivers down anyone's spine - even in the MLS.

Bayern Munich
1 draw 2 losses overall. No cup ties.

Which brings us, finally, to that other moribund excuse for an erstwhile continental giant - Bayern Munchen. How far have the mighty fallen. The truth is, they've been slowly rotting in the Champions' League for a few seasons but only now has their disease become terminal. Ironically, the only team that may be worse off then them are their opponents, David Beckham's Real.

Bayern are off the pace in the Bundesliga and their style of play is being prescribed for insomniacs from Bavaria to Bremen. The latter, may not need them anymore, judging by the daylight opening up between their team and Bayern.

Tragically, one of these 2 will live to go into the hat for the quarterfinals, whereas elsewhere 2 of Lyon, Roma, PSV and Arsenal will go home.

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Serie A according to Gabriele

Friday, 19 January 07, 03:46 PM

Welcome everyone.

Today we have an Interview with Gabriele Porri, Serie A fan and expert.

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How are you Gabriele? Especially knowing that Inter and Milan are now alleged to have engaged in illegal bookkeeping? Juventus leading the probe then? ;-)


It’s just the result of many and many years of bad administration of Italian football. We knew the facts: Inter and Milan exchanged some young players, overrating their value so that the incomes were put in the balance sheet of the current year, while the payments were spread over many years (and it was possible according to a law done by Government Berlusconi). Anyway, also Juventus (so they cannot leave the probe), AS Roma, Lazio, Genoa and Sampdoria are alleged. The problem is there are no enough rules in Italian sport law against this malpractice, and the same persons that sent away commissioner Rossi (the man who would have made new rules), now would like to see those teams punished.

What do you make of the season so far?

Well, the “problem” is that Inter is dominating, but I don’t think is due to Juventus’ absence. I think that 20 teams are too much for main League in Italy. Anyway, we could see in first half some good matches and good goals.

Biggest Surprise ? Team and Player.

Team is Catania, newcomer and fourth, player is Cristiano Doni of Atalanta: I didn’t expect he would have been back to Italy at the age of 33, playing so good as he did in 2002

Biggest Disappointment ? Team and Player.

AC Milan, without penalty they would be 20 points behind Inter, player Oliveira, compared to 20 million Euros Milan spent for him.

Will Inter hold on and win the Scudetto? Can they go unbeaten? If they take the Coppa Italia seriously can they win the Treble ?

I think Inter will win the Scudetto at the end, but it’s difficult they go unbeaten for 38 games. For sure Mancini takes seriously the Coppa Italia as he won it many times both as a player and a coach, but the Treble is very difficult. In Europe there’s a tough competition, I’d say Inter has 15% probability.

What do you make of Javier Zanetti's resurgence and Dejan Stankovic in general?

I think Javier Zanetti’s great season is also due to his very good physical condition, which is necessary for him to do well. Stankovic has always been one of my favourite midfielders, has a great shot, now he can also play in the position he likes more, and he is only 29. I think Inter has a super midfielder for 5 years more.

Can Palermo cement its place in the top 4/5 (6th in '05, 5th in 06 and now 3rd) or will it's lack of financial muscle cause it drop down into mid-table security/obscurity?

Palermo is a toy in its chairman’s hands. It’s up to Zamparini if Palermo will stay in top 4-5 for the next years or not. Well, I think Palermo fans are happy about choosing between these two options: in the recent past they knew bankruptcies and a lot of seasons in Serie C (Third Division)!

What do you make of Ronaldo coming to Milan?

In my opinion, AC Milan will have a good striker, but also a 30 years old overweight man. Maybe he will bring them to 4th place, but he’s not the same player we saw in black and blue jersey in 1997-98.

Do you think Ricardo Oliveira is a bust or just needs more time to settle?

Do you know what AC Milan fans and some media said when he came to Milan? That signing Oliveira, whose agent was Ronaldinho’s brother, would have been the key to sign the Brazilian star next year. Today, Ronaldinho’s brother isn’t his agent anymore. Don’t know if Oliveira is a bust (let’s give him a choice in the second half), surely he’s not a star.

Best player pickup in the off-season? Was it Zlatan Ibrahimovic at Inter?

I think so, Ibra has the potential to become one of the 2-3 top European players. He has very good technical and athletic skills, it’s incredible what he can do with his enormous feet!

Will Parma get relegated and then sell off even more of its players?

Parma is one of the main candidates to be relegated, and it’s a pity how this glorious team fell-in. Don’t know what’s going on with its public sale, anyway their hope is the big number of young players.

Can Roma ever get consistent enough to mount a serious challenge again? Do you think Francesco Totti will end his career there?

I think it’s easier that the pope leaves Rome rather than Totti!

AS Roma has just a problem: their starting 11 is one of the best, but the other players cannot replace them the same way.

Udinese this season, are they underachieving or just really mid-table material? Will Antonio Di Natale and the 2 Ghanaians - Gyan Asamoah and Sulley Muntari - move onto to greener pastures in the off-season?

I think Udinese could qualify to UEFA Cup, but they did wrong sacking Galeone. Iaquinta is the Udinese player the other teams seek most, let’s wait and see. Maybe Muntari will leave, but he’s not so good in this season, too nervous and already sent off three times!

Messina were top 2 of Serie A briefly and now are one spot above the trapdoor - how come? Will they drop down?

It will be difficult for them to avoid relegation, especially now that Storari and Di Napoli have been sold.

Who has the best Youth Development System in Serie A - Empoli? Atalanta? Roma?

Empoli, Roma but also Juventus in last years.

Who is better this season - Sampdoria's Cristiano Zenoni or Udinese's Damiano Zenoni? Who do you think has had a better career so far?

This year Damiano is doing better, but Cristian in his career has won 2 Scudetti when he was in Juventus, so I think he had a better career

Is Mancini the best attacking right winger/wingback in Serie A - what about Serginho?

Mancini is one of the best, Serginho prefers to play in the left side and this year is injured.

Can Emiliano Bonazzoli at Sampdoria go on to become a top forward? What about Francesco Flachi?

Bonazzoli is one of those eternal hopes that never become top players, but he is 27 and hasn’t missed the last train yet. Flachi isn’t a star, but really a good Serie A player

Similarly, who do you think is a better striker - Milan's Alberto Gilardino or Fiorentina's Luca Toni?

I do prefer Toni, but you must consider that Gilardino is 24 and Toni when he was 24 used to play in a small club like Vicenza, and was at his very first year in Serie A

In Serie A which young player do you tip for greatness? Ricardo Montolivo? Alberto Aquilani?

I’d say Aquilani has better skills than Montolivo, in this half season I have been impressed by Alessanro Rosina of Torino and Fabio Quagliarella of Sampdoria

Roughly between 1997 and 2001 Serie A had become a little stale, too defensive, not enough flair players being successful, too many fouls. Since Roma won in 2001 things have changed it seems, with the final product on the pitch being more entertaining - would you agree?

Well, I do not agree completely, between 1997 and 2001 you could see players as Ronaldo, Roberto Baggio, Del Piero, Weah: in those seasons (until 2002) clubs used to win the Scudetto at the very last step. Maybe now it is more entertaining, but less interesting

Finally, what would you like to see changed for the better in Serie A in the future?

Less teams, 16 or 18, comfortable stadiums with many services, more and more rigid rules on the administration side, new people on the top of our Football Association (Carraro isn’t anymore at FIGC, and who they are thinking about? Antonio Matarrese who is 67 and became president for the first time 20 years ago), more attention to young players and Youth Development.

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Group Winners II - Lyon, Manchester United, Arsenal, Milan

Thursday, 04 January 07, 06:41 PM

Group Winners II - Lyon, Manchester United, Arsenal, Milan
Strengths and weaknesses of the Champions' League clubs in the round of 16.


LYON
Weaknesses
Lack solid defensive midfielders who can lock a game down:
With Essien and Mahamadou Diarra gone in successive seasons, and Alou Diarra and Toulalan a bit green in that regard, the Lyonnais seem a little threadbare in the defensive-hachetman category.
Lack of depth up front:
Outside Wiltord, Fred is injured, Carew is injured, Govou is a converted right winger and Benzema is a young whipper snapper.
Strengths
Balance:
Like Valencia, they have quality all over the pitch, and haven't spent a fortune acquiring them.
Wingers:
Malouda, Govou, heck even Eric Abidal can all tear down the sideline and cross the ball or turn on the burners and cut into the box. Ominous and deadly.
Juninho:
Best dead ball specialist in Europe. One of the best passers, can dribble and shoot from distance. Give him the ball and expect magic.
Experience of Houllier:
Monsieur Gerard took Liverpool to the UEFA Cup and dreamt of the Champions' League. He may very well realize that dream with Lyon. Very experienced when it comes to knockout ties.


MANCHESTER UNITED
Weaknesses
Lack of depth:
Performance wise, one of the best starting XIs this year. But outside the first XI the likes of Kieran Richardson are poor substitutes - pun totally intended.
Weakness in midfield:
A bit like Liverpool - their midfield is weak; when Scholes is injured or out of form, it's decidedly wretched - a gaping hole.
Strengths
Saha's balanced attack play:
More than just the gunslinger he was initially purchased to be, Saha's muscular, selfless approach brings other players into the game and spreads the ball like Ruud never did. United's attack is reborn this year with the Frenchman playing as a forward playmaker.
Speedy wingers:
Ronaldo is on fire this year, replacing his profligacy with some deadly shooting while still being one of the fastest players on the right side of the park. On the other flank, Giggs is still around, mesmerising defenders with his pace and dribbling skills.
Vidic:
Quiet, unspoken and unperturbed, Vidic, more than Rio, Neville, Brown or Heinze is the reason for United's defensive solidity this year. The young Serb is immense at the back while knowing in some corners as well. Arguably, Man U's shrewdest buy in the last 18 months.


ARSENAL
Weaknesses
Cannot defend setpieces, rarely score off them:
No one is worse off defending setpieces than Arsenal. The marking is abysmal, the movement chaotic. Ironically, setpieces are often the only time opposing teams can get a shot at them. It doesn't get a lot better at the other end as Arsenal waste more set pieces than others.
Not direct enough when attacking:
Passing pretty patterns is fine while in the middle of the park to get around the logjam of bodies, but in the final third a more clinical, direct method of getting the ball into the box and to the foremost attacker is required.
Lack of tacklers:
Lots of artists, passing wizards and plenty of pace. Flamini and Toure aside, not enough players who can slide across the deck to dislodge the ball from an opponents grasp. In tight matches away from home, this is often crucial.
Strengths
Speed on the counterattack:
Less then 5 touches and the ball is often in the opposing net. As seemingly uncommited Arsenal's defending can be on occasion, it is a setup for the speed with which they will sting you on the return. Opposing defences who venture upfield, you have been warned.
Excellent passing game:
No one passes the ball as well as they do. Balletic in movement yet deadly in it's delivery, Arsenal's passing will convert a harmless situation into a goalscoring chance in a heartbeat - while involving half their team.
Fabregas:
The best emerging midfielder in the game. Arguably, the best passer of his generation. Look to him to unlock any team.


MILAN
Weaknesses
Defence is slow, old and prone to mistakes:
Nesta, while healthy, is a shadow of his imperious past, Maldini too feeble and prone to mistakes, Cafu is slow and sloppy, Janukolovski repeatedly flatters to deceive and Costacurta is - wait for it - 40 years old.
Attack is inconsistent:
Inzaghi has died a natural death as a goalscorer, his ugly tap-ins notoriously absent, Gilardino is too mercurial and unlucky when on song, Sheva is missed while Ricardo Oliveira is yet to settle.
Over reliance on Kaka and Pirlo:
Give them the ball and hope for the best. If they are closed off - so is Milan. Gattuso can win only so many balls - he needs someone to create with it.
Strengths
2 of the best attacking midfielders and dead ball specialists in the game:
Ironically, one of their greatest weaknesses is also their main strength. If you had Pirlo and Kaka in your side, you would also be totally reliant on them.
Deep Squad:
Lots of players, lots of experience, plenty of bodies to throw at fixtures.
Experience:
They won in 2003 with virtually the same core while other players have gotten close to the summit with other clubs. Gattuso and Ambrosini have notched up over 50 games in Europe. Old timers like Maldini and Costacurta have been around since the glory days in the late 80s and early 90s. That's a mother'load' of experience.


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Champions' League Draw - first thoughts

Sunday, 17 December 06, 06:40 PM

The cream has risen in Europe.

At the end of the group stages, demotions, pre-qualifying and ancillary qualifying, the knockout rounds have been set. 16 teams in the Champions' League and 32 in the UEA cup will go head to head for the final chalice in their respective competitions. I for one, am glad the tedium is now finally over. While the knockout rounds are still over 2 months away and there is a transfer window in between, I'll try and sketch out my initial thoughts of the draw. This is always dodgy. I make no claims of being clairevoyant - not at this stage anyway.

At the end of Matchday 6 in the Champions' League, the only surprises for me was Inter failing to beat Bayern and Celtic losing to Kobenhavn. As a result both Inter and Celtic missed out on topping their groups. While Inter may well fancy their chances against Valencia, Celtic surely do not relish their tie against Milan.

The Rossoneri may have dropped their last game against Lille but it was a dead rubber. When it comes to navigating through knockout rounds, few do it better than Milan. Celtic have the speed to trouble Milan's ageing backline but they have no hope of coping with the twin threats of Pirlo and Kaka, when on song. Form will have a large part to play in this game but Celtic may find that they are up against wily veterans who have campaigned for many springs in Europe. Milan are good for atleast another round in Europe this season - they've been lucky that their opponents are Celtic rather than someone more wily and experienced.

Inter are my dark horses and outside bets for the whole damn thing this year. They are balanced, poised and have lost their initial jitters. Valencia are excellent in Europe but seem to be slowly imploding with every passing week. However they have the personnel to be quietly confident going into this tie and if they can hold onto David Villa past January, they may well be fit to cause an upset. Their organisation and experience are their chief threats but it will be Inter who will be looking forward to this tie more than Valencia. Expect a grinding contest decided by a Stankovic header or a Villa penalty.

Arsene Wenger's remarks at the end of the draw may have been taken out of context. When he said the draw was "not an easy one" he did not necessarily mean that they had drawn a tough opponent - step forward Liverpool, who have done just that - he meant that PSV cannot be considered easy pushovers and that there are no easy games at this stage at this level. This time round there were few bunnies, if any, sitting in the pot waiting to be drawn for the group winners - even LOSC Lille may well give United a run for their money - and as such, although PSV can be considered a non heavyweight; they are by no means an easy opponent. Still, Wenger can be safe in the knowledge that PSV are not as muscular in their approach as some of the other group runners-up could be and spend time playing the ball on the ground. I doubt he would have enjoyed going head to head with Inter or Porto, definitely not with Arsenal's unease at set pieces and aerial balls.

Liverpool, 2005 winners, drew the short straw and have the plum tie of Barcelona, themselves winners last year. No one would envy them the task of dethroning the current champions of Europe - however the two glimmers of hope that Kopites can cling to, is that Benitez is a shrewd operator in Europe (2 finals with Valencia, the title with them, a 4-1 upset win over Barcelona in the 1999-2000 season) and that even though Liverpool are inconsistent at times - so are Barca. But, If Iniesta and Deco can continue their heady form while sharing the workload with the ever brilliant Ronaldinho, Liverpool are in big trouble, Gerrard's long range missiles notwithstanding.

Chelsea will meet Porto, winners in 2004. Even though Mourinho coached Porto to the summit 2 years ago, he will have his work cut out as Porot have moved on from then. Tricky winger Quaresma will terrorise Chelsea down the flanks - especially if they insist on playing a solid but narrow defensive midfield. Lucho will tease from distance, Postiga may well turn in a few close range tallies. Having said that, however, I cannot see Porto upsetting Chelski over 2 legs. There may well be some nervous moments on set pieces but Chelsea have too many tricks up their sleeves. They are far too established and settled a machine to come unstuck against Porto. If in the mood Drogba can singlehandedly bludgeon in a few goals against the Portugese leaders.

Man U seem to be on some sort of trail of redemption this season. They have mounted a furious pacesetting challenge domestically, belying their usual slow starts, they've conquered their nemesis from last season in the group stage, Benfica. Now, in Lille, they find themselves up against another one of the teams that ended their European campaign at the group stage last year. Revenge must surely be on their minds. Yes, I'll be honest, Man U are the favorites, but don't count out the plucky French outfit, Odemwingie will be a handful for the United backline, Tavlardis more than a match for Saha, their midfield capable of controlling United's gaping absence in the middle of the park. I guess we'll have to wait and see. If Man U do win, keeping with my theme of redemption, they might well be drawn against Milan next.

Real renew rivalries with Bayern. From 1998 to 2002, 4 of the 5 European Cups were won by these two clubs. So, recent pedigree and history should not be lacking when it comes to motivation. Both have fallen off the summit in recent years. More attacking, fresher upstarts in the German Bundesliga seem to be giving Bayern a run for the title while the heavyweight duopoly in La Liga has shifted back to Barcelona. Real were dressed by Arsenal last year and have stuttered this year. Bayern started very well but have slowed up a little in recent weeks. So expect this to be a stop start game depending on form and finishing. Bastian Schweinsteiger can turn the tie for Bayern along with Roy Makaay. At the same time watch for Ruud or Raul to bundle home some loose balls in the 6 yard box.

The best tie though, of the whole competition and perhaps in all of Europe this season, has to be Roma versus Lyon. Whereas Inter versus Valencia will be more tactical and at times more brutal in the sheer physicality of the tie, the aesthetic brilliance of Lyon versus Roma is hard to match. This will be a game of 2 teams commited to attacking - two teams who believe the only way to win is to score more goals than your opponent. They will go forward at every stage and send balls crossfield searching for ever more attacking options. Lyon should shade this though, if only in that they are more assured, settled and consistent than Roma. The Italians, however are more mercurial and can upset the applecart if De Rossi and Totti are in the mood. Watch for plenty of goals and some audacious shots from distance.

So, off the top of my head at first glance, these are my initial picks:

Chelsea over Porto
Milan over Celtic
Arsenal over PSV
Man U over Lille
Lyon over Roma
Barcelona over Liverpool
Bayern over Real
Inter over Valencia

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