Round of 16 - First Legs I

Remarkably Unremarkable

The cream has risen in Europe.

At the end of the group stages, demotions, pre-qualifying and ancillary qualifying, the knockout rounds have been set. 16 teams in the Champions' League and 32 in the UEA cup will go head to head for the final chalice in their respective competitions. I for one, am glad the tedium is now finally over. While the knockout rounds are still over 2 months away and there is a transfer window in between, I'll try and sketch out my initial thoughts of the draw. This is always dodgy. I make no claims of being clairevoyant - not at this stage anyway.

At the end of Matchday 6 in the Champions' League, the only surprises for me was Inter failing to beat Bayern and Celtic losing to Kobenhavn. As a result both Inter and Celtic missed out on topping their groups. While Inter may well fancy their chances against Valencia, Celtic surely do not relish their tie against Milan.

The Rossoneri may have dropped their last game against Lille but it was a dead rubber. When it comes to navigating through knockout rounds, few do it better than Milan. Celtic have the speed to trouble Milan's ageing backline but they have no hope of coping with the twin threats of Pirlo and Kaka, when on song. Form will have a large part to play in this game but Celtic may find that they are up against wily veterans who have campaigned for many springs in Europe. Milan are good for atleast another round in Europe this season - they've been lucky that their opponents are Celtic rather than someone more wily and experienced.

Inter are my dark horses and outside bets for the whole damn thing this year. They are balanced, poised and have lost their initial jitters. Valencia are excellent in Europe but seem to be slowly imploding with every passing week. However they have the personnel to be quietly confident going into this tie and if they can hold onto David Villa past January, they may well be fit to cause an upset. Their organisation and experience are their chief threats but it will be Inter who will be looking forward to this tie more than Valencia. Expect a grinding contest decided by a Stankovic header or a Villa penalty.

Arsene Wenger's remarks at the end of the draw may have been taken out of context. When he said the draw was "not an easy one" he did not necessarily mean that they had drawn a tough opponent - step forward Liverpool, who have done just that - he meant that PSV cannot be considered easy pushovers and that there are no easy games at this stage at this level. This time round there were few bunnies, if any, sitting in the pot waiting to be drawn for the group winners - even LOSC Lille may well give United a run for their money - and as such, although PSV can be considered a non heavyweight; they are by no means an easy opponent. Still, Wenger can be safe in the knowledge that PSV are not as muscular in their approach as some of the other group runners-up could be and spend time playing the ball on the ground. I doubt he would have enjoyed going head to head with Inter or Porto, definitely not with Arsenal's unease at set pieces and aerial balls.

Liverpool, 2005 winners, drew the short straw and have the plum tie of Barcelona, themselves winners last year. No one would envy them the task of dethroning the current champions of Europe - however the two glimmers of hope that Kopites can cling to, is that Benitez is a shrewd operator in Europe (2 finals with Valencia, the title with them, a 4-1 upset win over Barcelona in the 1999-2000 season) and that even though Liverpool are inconsistent at times - so are Barca. But, If Iniesta and Deco can continue their heady form while sharing the workload with the ever brilliant Ronaldinho, Liverpool are in big trouble, Gerrard's long range missiles notwithstanding.

Chelsea will meet Porto, winners in 2004. Even though Mourinho coached Porto to the summit 2 years ago, he will have his work cut out as Porot have moved on from then. Tricky winger Quaresma will terrorise Chelsea down the flanks - especially if they insist on playing a solid but narrow defensive midfield. Lucho will tease from distance, Postiga may well turn in a few close range tallies. Having said that, however, I cannot see Porto upsetting Chelski over 2 legs. There may well be some nervous moments on set pieces but Chelsea have too many tricks up their sleeves. They are far too established and settled a machine to come unstuck against Porto. If in the mood Drogba can singlehandedly bludgeon in a few goals against the Portugese leaders.

Man U seem to be on some sort of trail of redemption this season. They have mounted a furious pacesetting challenge domestically, belying their usual slow starts, they've conquered their nemesis from last season in the group stage, Benfica. Now, in Lille, they find themselves up against another one of the teams that ended their European campaign at the group stage last year. Revenge must surely be on their minds. Yes, I'll be honest, Man U are the favorites, but don't count out the plucky French outfit, Odemwingie will be a handful for the United backline, Tavlardis more than a match for Saha, their midfield capable of controlling United's gaping absence in the middle of the park. I guess we'll have to wait and see. If Man U do win, keeping with my theme of redemption, they might well be drawn against Milan next.

Real renew rivalries with Bayern. From 1998 to 2002, 4 of the 5 European Cups were won by these two clubs. So, recent pedigree and history should not be lacking when it comes to motivation. Both have fallen off the summit in recent years. More attacking, fresher upstarts in the German Bundesliga seem to be giving Bayern a run for the title while the heavyweight duopoly in La Liga has shifted back to Barcelona. Real were dressed by Arsenal last year and have stuttered this year. Bayern started very well but have slowed up a little in recent weeks. So expect this to be a stop start game depending on form and finishing. Bastian Schweinsteiger can turn the tie for Bayern along with Roy Makaay. At the same time watch for Ruud or Raul to bundle home some loose balls in the 6 yard box.

The best tie though, of the whole competition and perhaps in all of Europe this season, has to be Roma versus Lyon. Whereas Inter versus Valencia will be more tactical and at times more brutal in the sheer physicality of the tie, the aesthetic brilliance of Lyon versus Roma is hard to match. This will be a game of 2 teams commited to attacking - two teams who believe the only way to win is to score more goals than your opponent. They will go forward at every stage and send balls crossfield searching for ever more attacking options. Lyon should shade this though, if only in that they are more assured, settled and consistent than Roma. The Italians, however are more mercurial and can upset the applecart if De Rossi and Totti are in the mood. Watch for plenty of goals and some audacious shots from distance.

So, off the top of my head at first glance, these are my initial picks:

Chelsea over Porto
Milan over Celtic
Arsenal over PSV
Man U over Lille
Lyon over Roma
Barcelona over Liverpool
Bayern over Real
Inter over Valencia

Group E:

There was talk earlier this month of Mahamadou Diarra's contribution to Real Madrid. The exact question was "What exactly does he do?". Well, he was never brought in to liven up the proceedings with attacking guile and eye catching flair. He was brought in to do the dirty work. Tackle, win the ball, appear at all places at all times and be a thorn in the opposing midfield. Basically pi... the living daylights out of the enemy. Lyon were threatening to run away with this game, about to hand out a summary thrashing of sorts to the self proclaimed biggest team in the World, when their summer holdout, Diarra, hauled the Spanish team back into the game. Like his play, his goal was nothing attractive, just effective. After that Real showed some of the resilience that Capello has imbibed in them this season, fighting back into this tie to force a draw. The penalty Lyon conceded at the death was a bit harsh but Ruud van Nistelrooy promptly missed it to ensure the game finished fairly.

Lyon dominated this match uptil the second goal that Real scored. After that they were a little nervous but still they can hold their heads high. I've been salivating over this for weeks and though Lyon have taken their foot of the pedal a little in recent weeks, they were definitely up for this. A good solid performance from the French Champions. Now they have ensured they will top the group and few group runners-up will want to draw them in the next round. Real are still far from the finished article. It takes more than effective grinders in the backfield to be Champions' of Europe.

When Cernat scored off a rather comical free kick I feared that Steaua were about to undo all the hard work they have put into their European adventure this year. Luckily for them, and for footballing underdogs everywhere, they fought back and leveled things up midway through the second half. Not so long ago, Dynamo were the neutral's favorite, the charming Eastern European underdogs causing a flutter in the established arenas of Europe. How the pendulum has swung. If there is one word that can describe Kyiv's campaign this year - stale. There are smaller, more obscure teams stepping up to the plate. Along with the other 2 Bucresti clubs (Rapid and Dynamo) in the UEFA Cup, Steaua have made real waves this year. Having 3 teams in the final 32 of the UEFA cup will be a real bonus for Romanian football. And it will ensure that the Sorins, Dorins, Florins, Valentins and Constantins of Steaua will play in Europe past Christmas.

Group F:

As I have maintainted all season, if you attack Manchester United right from the start and have a real go at them, they will crumble. They've been consistent this year, I do agree, but for all their blood and thunder, they are basically flat track bullies who push bodies upfield, pump balls into the box for Rooney or Saha or send it wide for Ronaldo to try and bend one in from range. The problem with that approach is that the dividends are often unsure. On one day and off another. The approach of bullying other teams may work in the premiership, where their reputation is phenomenal. But in Europe or against opposition less cowed by their attacking prowess, they can fall apart.

Celtic are no muppets. Gordon Strachan has taught them to fear no one - least of all Man U. They had a real go at them and came up trumps. I maintained right from the off that United were lucky to win the reverse fixture 3-2. This time Celtic held firm and rode their luck. Another magnificent performance embellished by Nakamura's gem of a free kick. Oh and Saha missed a penalty at the end - but one which probably would not have given had it been the other way around. So just desserts for an oft spoiled United outfit. When Ferguson told Saha pre season that he wanted him to emulate Ruud, I doubt he had this in mind. I'd be interested if Benfica were actually good enough to win at Old Trafford next round. In that instance, this game would have had real significance. It won't however as Benfica will lose at United. Still one can only hope.....

I'd like to write about Benfica beating Kobenhavn but I have little to say. Benfica are upper mid table in Portugal and off the pace in Europe. They are however good enough to beat Kobenhavn and unlike many teams (hint hint Man U) not cocky enough to take them lightly. Perhaps they are more unpretentious in that they treat every game with merit, mired as they are in domestic troubles. Porto and Sporting are leading Divisao 1 but Benfica have sadly fallen off the pace. This group would have been so much interesting otherwise. The Danes have gotten that one memorable result and have had trouble picking themselves up for the remaining games.

Group G:

There's something to be said about the ability to play well in scrappy match on a bouncy pitch. It harkens back to the schoolyard games of football we all played as kids, boots flying in from everywhere, the ball going every which way, no sense of formation or position once the ball neared a goalmouth, a mad scramble for a kick of the ball in midfield.

As beautifully orchestrated and at times mind numbingly boring, some of the tactics employed in the modern game are, we often lose sight of the what the game really is - 2 sets of 11 players trying to kick a ball into an opposing net. And that's what the game really boils down to.

Watching CSKA Moscow, recently crowned Russian Champions play Porto, it reminded of the after school scrapfests I was involved in as a 8 year old. There was much running, kicking, shoving and jostling, yet the game itself, apart from the 2 goals, had little to write home about. Much can be said about Porto's European performances, and indeed they have been very good at times, but this match was simply a case of which team was lucky enough to direct the ball into the net. There was little build up play or cohesion and despite Lucho Gonzales striking the ball sweetly enough, the goal he scored was flukey to say the least, the marking and coverage dismal. Lucho himself has gone from strength to strength in this season's champions' league and after watching Tevez and Mascherano fade more and more with each passing game for the Hammers, one wonders how long before Lucho's start in the Argentine midfield will occur.

I expected the Russians to play better than they did - but the sad matter is that Porto is less motivating than Arsenal and after having wrapped up the domestic league, CSKA were a pale shadow of their normal menacing steppe warrior selves. Aldonin and Zhirkov were a step too slow and while they may pride themselves on the prize scalp of Arsenal, they did themsleves no favours with this rather dismal showing. Whereas they should have won this home fixture and cemented their chances of qualifying, they now simply have to beat Hamburg to ensure they progress.

Elsewhere in London, I got more than a little worried when I saw Arsenal trailing to an early Rafael van der Vaart goal. Hamburg may sport the same Fly Emirates logo as Arsenal, but, despite having some standout players, are definite class below. The thing about having standout players is that no matter how woeful a team's form (Hamburg are by all accounts truly so this season), they are capable of scoring the odd brilliant goal. So it was that Van der Vaart produced a peach of a shot to give Lehmann no chance and give the Germans a shock lead. Like Kieron Dyer, he won't score many more this season or many better ones in his career, and like Kieron Dyer on Saturday, he reserved one of his best for a game against Arsenal.

Normally, being 1-0 down in a critical fixture smacked of deja vu for the Gunners, notoriously poor mounters of fightbacks. But this team is different. Youthful zeal is often a poor replacement for veteran experience, but here it was the perfect tonic for a seemingly flagging European campaign. Shortly after the restart the drew even and kept chipping away with attacks. When the dust had settled, Arsenal were worthy 3-1 winners. Despite his important cameo on the weekend against Newcastle, Henry has been peripheral for most of this campaign. So it was that he sulked and shadowed himself in this game. The yellow card he picked up rules him out of the decider in Porto. On this form, both the team's and his, he won't be missed. 2 points of note - perhaps the size of the Ashburton Grove pitch allows teams that extra yard of space before they get closed down. That might explain the numerous goals conceded against the run of play by optimistic attacks if anything at all. It might be high time to move Eboue into the right side of midfield and out of defence.

Group H:

AEK showed everyone that aren't there to simply make up the numbers. While this win didn't completely ensure their progress to the next round, they did themselves no harm by beating a limp Milan side. Julio Cesar's free kick may not have made the headlines like Nakamura's thunderbolt for Celtic, but it was as important, as classy, as clinical. This AEK side have fight, they have gumption and they have the ability to roll up their sleeves and get stuck in. Of course against a Milan side that is simply reeling from one defeat after another, this was easier than normally possible. But the fact remains that every time AEK have been counted out in this group, they have emerged with a fighting display to give themselves a chance of progression. Home form is central in a 6 game mini group. By ensuring they collected 2 wins and a draw from their allotment, they are in with a shouting chance.

Milan, oh Milan, how the mighty have fallen. They resemble a Lamborghini from the front but a Lada from the rear. As encouraging as Kaka's and Pirlo's artistry is, the defensive shambles that is Nesta, Maldini and Costacurta is fast becoming a libility. Gattuso's absence may explain much, but the sad truth is that for a team that contains so much talent, a defensive midfielder should not be their most important player. Perhaps, the underestimated their Greek opponents, starting Brocchi at right back and Gourcuff on the right. Perhaps they relaxed a but too much knowing that qualification had been ensured. Their is no denying however that their season is fast spiralling out of control. They will still top their group but I cannot see them progressing past the next round.

For Lille, read opportunity lost. They should have summarily thumped Anderlecht but instead let them crawl back to even things twice. Now they have to beat Milan away and hope AEK don't do the the same to Anderlecht in the final set of matches. For the neutral it will make fascinating viewing but Lille fans will be gnawing their teeth in anxiety. Twice now they have handed the advantage BACK to inferior opponents in games they should have won. That's 4 and perhaps even 5 dropped points - a win over AEK in Greece may be asking too much. Their defensive lapses have been their Achilles's heel and at crucial times this season and in this game, went missing. All in all this game was a true reflection of their European odyssey - so much potential, a brief display of class and then, sudden descent back into underachievement. They now have to win their toughest tie of the campaign and it still might not be enough.

For the Belgians, a win in their last game may still give them UEFA cup football past Christmas. They own the head to head versus Lille thanks to 2 precious away goals in this game. Their game has been tidy but they lack weapons to cause mayhem at this level. 3 points from 3 draws seem harsh but it is no less than they deserved. Anderlecht are the poor cousins of modern football's big clubs. Massive at home but a feeder club none the less. They would however supplement the UEFA cup well.. if they make it there.