Can Newcastle end Arsenal's season before September?

Usually a convincing 4-0 midweek victory would have Arsenal fans buoyant and positive about the following home game, but after last week's dismal Premiership performance against Fulham and with no sign of much-required fresh blood entering before the close of the transfer window, one gets the feeling the majority of Arsenal fans remain more pessimistic than optimistic.

Under Kevin Keegan Newcastle have finally started moving in the right direction, in particular towards the end of last season and even more so the beginning of this. The club took a point off Man Utd following a very good performance at Old Trafford on the first day of the season, and have subsequently followed up with a home win at Bolton followed by a midweek victory away to Coventry in the Carling Cup - albeit after extra time. Ordinarily, Newcastle would not have gained something from all three of those games - to their credit they have shown a bit of steel.

I am impressed with the club's new signings; it's early days but Fabricio Coloccini looks a highly competent purchase at the back and I really like the look of Jonas Gutierrez - a talented, driving midfielder with a phenomenal work rate.

Newcastle's biggest problem is that Michael Owen is the only recognised fit striker they have at present. Another negative for the Geordies is that James Milner has, rather surprisingly, been sold to Aston Villa today - leaving them a bit short of quality wide players.

For tomorrow's game at the Emirates, Newcastle are likely to employ a 5-man midfield comprising of Barton (a clear danger man who owes them big time), Butt, Guthrie, Gutierrez and Geremi. Arsenal will probably field Nasri, Fabregas, Eboue (or Denilson - tough call) and Walcott in their usual 4-4-2 formation. It's pretty clear where Arsenal might slip up in this match. Their midfield quarter will need to be very sharp and focused, passing through and around Newcastle's experienced and hard working midfield unit. They won't win a physical battle but will still need to show a lot more bravery than they did at Fulham last week.

Meanwhile, Newcastle have the problem of making the ball stick up front. Owen will have his hands full and could be negated on the ground by the pace of Toure and Gallas (which is why Toure must start ahead of Djourou), but he's still dangerous aerially from set pieces. For Arsenal, Adebayor will be an important outlet should they try to circumnavigate Newcastle's packed midfield with long balls over the top - he'll certainly need to be on his game.

Could Newcastle pull off a surprise tomorrow? Of course, although I'm not sure how much of a surprise a score draw would be. It's encouraging that Newcastle are short up front and struggled to beat Coventry in the Carling Cup midweek - along with the demands of extra time and a long coach trip to London, and it's also encouraging that Arsenal beat Newcastle comfortably at the Emirates last season on no less than three occasions. 2-0 in the Carling Cup, 3-0 in the Premiership and 3-0 in the FA Cup.

However, Arsenal will have to play a lot better than they have been of late if they want to beat Newcastle as convincingly as they did last season - FC Twente counts for nothing. I expect the Gunners to edge it, but it could go to the wire and I wouldn't be all that surprised if Wenger again pays a heavy price for his continued transfer lethargy.