Match Prediction: Arsenal at Villa Park on Boxing Day
Wednesday, 24 December 08, 03:30 AM · Comments (66)
If we win this match we create a six point gap between us and Arsenal, who you'd have to fancy are going to be our main threat to securing a Champions League place this season.
Lose and we're all even again and with only one goal separating us in terms of goal difference it could be that they go ahead of us. Sort of makes this an important match doesn't it?
The thing is, while you can never for a moment think you'll beat Arsenal, now is a good time to be playing them. They are without their captain, Cesc Fabregas and their biggest goal threat Emmanuel Adebayor, who is suspended.
While they've got talented players to come in and replace them, you'd have to be a blind and very stupid Arsenal fan to think they are easily replaced and that whoever comes in will be just as effective. It sort of evens things up in my book, because we've not been as effective at home this season as we have done away - but that will change on Friday.
The reason our home form has not been as good as our away form is that teams are coming to Villa Park looking to steal a point - Arsenal won't do this. Arsenal will come and try to win this game and in my opinion, this is why it will be good for us and why I'm predicting a win.
Now, this is where I'd normally start rolling off statistics and numbers, because I like numbers, but today, instead of me doing it all over again, you best click here and visit Zidave's Analysis. He has it all and the reading, in terms of statistics, isn't great. Quick question, when was the last time we beat Arsenal in the league at Villa Park?
Anyway, moving away from numbers. Villa_1_2_3 has a preview of the match and his man to watch is Gabby. I have to agree with that, Gabby and Young are really going to shine in this match for me, much like they did last time out.
Last time out, at the Emirates in November, I predicted that it would be the likes of Gabby and Young that would win us the game and they did.
Gabby got both goals last time out and I seem to remember it was the start of Martin O'Neill playing 4-5-1, maybe because Arsenal play five in the middle but also maybe because he had to try it out and see how it worked for him. Either way, it seemed to work and he has stuck with it.
I hope he sticks with it for Friday as I fancy we can beat Arsenal at home, mostly because they're not going to come and try for a point, but they're going to attack. When they do, the game will open up, just like it does when we're playing away from Villa Park.
The main player concern for us is Martin Laursen who felt something in his knee after the West Ham match. None of us want it to be what it could be and we'll not know until late on as a decision will be made on Friday as to his availability.
That's it for today, unless the club confirm the early signing of a player ahead of the transfer window opening up next week, because it's Christmas and I'm going to go spend a couple of days with the family.
So, with that, I wish you all a happy Christmas and I truly hope you all have a great time. I'm just happy in the knowledge that we are third. Imagine where we will be this time next year, or the year after!
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66 Comments · Add yours
I think the start of playing 4-5-1 was Carew's lapdancing episode to be fair.
I am sure Arsenal will not make the mistake they made at the Emirates when they played such a high line. It will be tough work for Gabby and the onus is on the midfield to get into attacking positions - not easy when you play a good passing side and the temptation is to just sit in front of them. This is a game for Sidwell, Barry and Milner to really get about the pitch and keep putting the foot in. If they have a good game I think we will win.
Adebayor being out again is a massive plus, I didn't fancy our defence against his threat.
come on Villa! cant wait for this game! gonna be a cracker, i just hope we have laursen back!
oh and cuellar!
"you best click here and visit Zidave's Analysis. He has it all and the reading **isn't** great"
hey what's with the isn't?? lol. please tell me that was a typo!
Anyways thank you for posting the link.
lol same cheers damian!
balls i just read this:
LINK
Looks like we are going to be without laursen for the arsenal game, which means we most defs need cuellar back! as we will be in the s**t if we have knight playing, god help us!
I think Gabby and Ash will be our key players too. As as I said in my article and 123villa pointed out too, this game is very ideal for our style. Arsenal will be attacking and it's going to leave it open for us. Sagna is an outstanding RB, but he's going to have his hands full if he wants to push forward and keep Young in his pocket, because both are not doable! Gabby I think is meant for games like this. Lets hope the two have good games and lets also hope our defense has a good game. I expect us to see:
L.Young Cuellar Davies NRC
Honestly I think they will do fine and NRC has played decent lately. What does worry me is Clichey pushing forward, because NRC will have a HELL of a time dealing with Nasri and Clichey both bombing down our right!
There is no reason for us to not be capable of winning. I somewhat feel we're going to get a draw, but I also have a good feeling about the game and why not? 2-1 Villa!
yep you have to make sure that milner helps cover NRC as we know he likes to move forward! he defs has pace to cope with any difficulties such as Van persie and clichy!
I agree, also as Friedal has said Villa need to start thinking like a top four club, in that we need to have the belief and put pressure on our team with the expectation to win every game, even against top teams!
Yeah from OS:
"Laursen Injury Update
Martin Laursen is a major doubt for Villa's tough Boxing Day clash with Arsenal.
The Villa skipper picked up a knee injury in Saturday's win at West Ham and his fitness is still being assessed by the club's medical team.
A late decision will be made on Laursen's availability."
Zidave
I was referring to stats ... not the post mate. Sorry - I'm fixing it
lol unlucky zidave
Also - for the record, I've asked someone at OleOle to create a widget for this site, so I can link to other Aston Villa blogs on the OleOle network - hopefully something that will sit on the right hand side ..
I'd take a point, right here... right now!
Sad display of our decline, this season!
Reply to Zidave:
If Zat is playing we are going to really struggle with Van Persie and Nasri.
Here's to a 5-4 then!
Merry Christmas
completely agree, so we defs need cuellar to be fit, because despite Laursen being out, i think a back four of Young, Davies, Cuellar and NRC would still be quality! and thankfully arsenal will be without Adebayor! so Arsenal wont have that aerial threat!
Reply to AVFCBlog:
Thank you Damian. You can ignore the email then haha. Thanks again for linking. Also in order to answer one of your statistical questions:
Q: when was the last time we beat Arsenal in the league at Villa Park?
A: 10 matches. The Gunners are unbeaten in nine top-flight matches at Villa Park. They have drawn four and won five.
nice to know, but lady luck is shining!
so that statistic could all change!
Please plaese please let at least Cuellar be back for this one. I just don't trust Knight to not do something stupid over 90mins and againest the likes of Van Persie that would be costly. I think this is probably the biggest game we have been in since the FA cup final back in 2000. God im so nervous. If we win it really would be huge huge step for this club. I would take a draw right now though.
Yeah look how many we have broken this year? We beat Arsenal at home, we beat the Hammburgelers at home and more. We aren't even supposed to be sitting in 3rd right? Statistics mean nothing at this point, we have and should show no fear!
* also Damian I posted a comment. I was just wondering what sort of statistics I should add to my future match previews if you think my stats aren't great, just shoot an email or comment, I'll try to incorporate them next time.
I know, I always feel uncomfortable watching Knight play in our back four, just look at the Hamburg game, was so chaotic at the back!
Chrimany it is 2:46am. I guess that's what i get for going out to the bars and then staying up to read soccer news lol. Talk to you mates tomorrow! ZZZZZZZzzzzzzz
how do u do a stat counter on the blogs zidave?
5-1 Villa
Just read this - can anyone guess which dildo demonstrated his complete lack of understanding of Villa's potential and Villa fans expectations this season?
"The potential is there but for the moment I think the fans would be delighted if they can just finish in the top half."
Bil Howell you really are a total tool
SidCowanslovechild
Perfect Christmas present that .. cheers!
Just done a post on potential Jan transfer targets/potential new signing:
LINK
and a top four Villa mentality:
LINK
Bil Howell you really are a total tool
Yes, I read that yesterday and thought what the hell is he on about? I just assumed the drugs had kicked in.
TBF, that one line totally ruined what was otherwise a pretty good article, IMO.
Reply to Badger:
I agree the rest of article was ok - but that's like saying you ruined your Gran's perfectly good 80th birthday party by puking in her hat - it kind of ruins the whole thing
The last time we beat Arsenal at VP in the league - was that the day santa threw himself of the Trinity Road Stand?
Damian, Gabby didn't score twice against Arsenal, first was a Clichy own goal. Gabby didn't even touch the ball. Typical of you that give some players credit for scoring when they didn't even have a hand in the goal and give no credit to Milner for that fantastic strike against West Ham
Anyway, with or without Laursen Villa to win 2-1.
Merry Xmas to you all and Up The Villa.
Have a lovely Christmas everyone and your family's too.
If Laursen and Cuellar are out cant se NRC being able to handle Clichey and Nasri.Surely young should play at right back with Shorey at left back.Whats the point of spending all that money on Shorey if you are never going to play him. Would not the balance of the team be better with Young and Milner on the right and Shorey and Ash on the left if Laursen and Cuellar are out.
I like that Nasri, think he's a great player and agree, he's going to cause us problems. I don't expect much from Milner, as he'll be under orders to keep tracking back.
I reckon MON playing L Young at left back tells you everything you need to know about what MON thinks of Shorey. FWIW, I totally agree with him.
I'm not going to make a prediction for this game, as I'm always bloody wrong, but hope we win. I'm bricking it, as this could well be the game that decides the whole season for us.
I predict a NRC Red Card.
I dont know what to expect from this game and im bricking it.
I will be in the holte in good voice with the rest of the boys doing our bit.
I cant believe how important this game is to us. 2 years ago we could only dream of this.
Thanks to Mr Lerner and Mr O Neill for putting our club back where it belongs.
Have a great christmas everyone and lets hope 2009 is just as good to us.
KeefVilla - that's a great point, like it! That poor Santa guy landed about 10 yards from me. That was a game of two halves for sure.
I am surprised everyone is writing off Knight. Has there been a match this year when Cuellar and Davies have played together at centre half? I suspect Davies, Knight partnership.
anyone think that if villa finish in the top 4, the media will class it as a fluke, or change the so called top 4 into the top 5
Anyone knows what's the situation with Carew now ?
I feeel Laursen is the key to our sucess his will to win spreads through the team & he is so solid.
It would be great to beat Arsenal but not worth rushing him back
Reply to qashqai:
agree with that,got to play a proper left and right back,NRC cannot cope with Nasri and Clichy.
Hope our captain fantastic can make it,don't wan't to see Knight.
Merry Christmas everyone and bring on boxing day
Reply to Zidave:
I think the real stat to know would be.....
when was the last time that Villa did the double on Arsenal?
on talk sport man city have bid 45m for young
Reply to ash:
link?
listen 1 the radio
listen to the radio
Reply to ash:
Not going to happen, it's rubbish mate.
i dont think our defence ever looks very solid when Martin Laursen is out so i think there will be a good bit bit of panic and messing about in the box!
thank god Adebayor and Fabregas are out..
Villa win 2-1.
Ive heard Knight is playing. PLEASE dont play him, i gaurantee he will make a costly mistake/s. I cant flippin stand him.
lol i did too
HappyASTON CHRistVILLAmas!! i love villa more than christmas! What am I like? its 2 in the morning on christmasand I;m on the `villa blog website! im pissed alright but fuvk do i love Villa !! C'mon the VILLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAA
Merry Christmas everyone and thank you for this wonderful blog. Is it bad that I want Christmas to hurry up and get over with because I am so excited for this match. I will be down at my local pub watching and I can't wait.
Just past midnight now, Merry Christmas fellow Villains
IQ=27, Evicted_Kev, Nan_was_a_tran, Ginger7, Hostnutter, all of ya, Happy Christmas to all I have abused, annoyed or upset over the last year. Damian I really think it's time to ask forgiveness of Mr Lerner. Win, lose or draw I can say I am proud of the club from top to bottom. 44 years of pain (less a couple!) all forgotten.
Merry Christmas Everyone.
I'm going for a 2-1 to Villa like a lot of you. Lets just hope though that we won't see Zat Fright playing or it may just ruin our Christmas !
Can't wait to see who we buy next month and i'm in agreement that replacing Salifou, Knight, Osbourne etc with some real quality would be nice along with another striker.
We'll have to wait and see. All the best.
UTV
Sorry to be a little pr**k on christmas but i have sort of come to the conclusion that the arse will win, probably a lucky penalty or a freekick anything but 0-0
If we win that's 4 straight wins? come on a draw at best or loss sorry but we were lucky last week and the week b4 that! the arse have been piss poor we have been great, laursen in/out who knows for me Laursen is clearly the best defender in the prem by a mile big loss if he is out injured
cheers corn hole-O tp user same to you 2 have a good one
Reply to Goldie7:
Goldie7 no need to appoligise for being a prick. I'm sure you don't mean it, just natural I guess? Happy Christmas mate, have a great day. I'd say your the life and soul!
LINK
My cousin works there and is in the backgroud, well done lads, tis Christmas x
1-1 I reckon. Arsenal could snatch an early lead but concede in the second half and it'll be a backs to the wall job from then on.
Can't sleep. Come on Santa I deserve this. 2-1 Villa.
Sorry what was that Dixon?
Acording to the daily star Ramos ( Real Madrid ) wants Ashley Young in January for £25 M !!!!!!!
The day the world changed.
VC Day.
Reply to Altan:
Well he can F**k off then, Knights available for less
Reply to SidCowanslovechild:
Is this for real? Surely if you're a journo, this must be alsmost gross misconduct as it's basically misrepresenting fact beyond belief?? Also, if we lose Cuellar and Laursen today it will be bloody difficult. Fingers crossed. Also like to see The Fonz today too.
Not usually massively into horses but Ruby Walsh just coming in now at Kempton dressed in Jim Lewis's claret and blue has got to be a sign...