Match Prediction: Aston Villa v Chelsea on Paul Birch Day
Friday, 20 February 09, 03:33 AM · Comments (88)
First and foremost, this is a match in which we need to display the same determination and bite that we did in the second half against CSKA Moscow and if we do, we'll win and we'll be five points ahead of Chelsea.
If we don't and it's the same team that came out against Everton last weekend then we will lose. I don't mean same team as in players, but I'm sure most of you know what I mean.
Before I get to my pre-match banter, I also want to mention that this match has been earmarked for a couple of weeks now, by supporters, as the match where we are going to remember Paul Birch.
I'm not sure if the club have confirmed that there will be a minutes silence or if a request has been put in, I'm hoping someone has, but when that minutes silence takes place the plan is to just hold up your scarf.
Paul Birch lived the dream that we've all had on countless occasions and I'd say the majority that will be at Villa Park tomorrow will remember seeing him play, so I hope he gets a good send off, it is richly deserved.
Now, to the match. Chelsea are Chelsea and as such they can never be underestimated and with a new manager, who watched us against CSKA Moscow the other night, they're going to come here looking to impress.
After that display against CSKA Moscow I have a feeling that Guus Hiddink will have been impressed but this game is going to be about who gets on top first and who controls it. Chelsea won't come here looking to soak up pressure, they're going to come here wanting to score goals and I for one think that will be to our benefit, in essence it will give us exactly what we want.
Now, I'll probably get some stick for this next part but how we play, getting the ball wide to the likes of Milner and Young, is exactly what Manchester United like to do. Sure, they pass the ball around much more, but if you watch Manchester United most of the passing they do is deep or through the middle, when they get the opportunity to get the ball out wide it's exactly what they do and the aim is to get the cross in as quickly as possible.
We won't beat Chelsea through the middle, like Manchester United can, but with the likes of Ashley Young we'll beat them down the left and if Milner is having a good day, we'll beat them down the right. Now, regular visitors will know I like my numbers and tomorrow is going to be a numbers game when it comes to the likes of Young and Milner.
If each player gets in just one cross, our chances of scoring are going to be slim, but if each player gets in 20 crosses our chances are going to be much higher. After I've written this, we'll likely go score a goal straight through the middle, but you know what I mean. I believe our best chance of winning tomorrow is going to be via Ashley and Milner with Gabby or John Carew getting on the end of it.
See what I've done? I've as good as said Martin O'Neill will be playing 4-4-2 and while I accept that he'll probably do that, I still believe our best formation, especially against the likes of Chelsea is five in midfield, but and again I'm sorry for bringing this up, if we play like we did in the second half against CSKA Moscow, we can beat Chelsea playing four in the middle and two up front.
So, to my prediction. I've done my best to protect myself here from getting it wrong, basically putting it down to the type of team that comes out to play, but I think most would agree and we actually have evidence to back this up, that on our day we can win these matches.
So, in a time honoured fashion, I'm going to do what I always do and predict three points for Aston Villa. I'm not going to churn out the line 'because it is so important' or 'this game could define our season' because I don't think these need to be used; it's now black and white and you don't need to be a genius to see exactly where we are and what three points would mean.
In Martin O'Neill we have a manager that can get the players up for it and tomorrow every single one of them is going to need to be up for it and have a clear idea as to what they have to do; get the ball to Milner and Young.
If we do that and Petrov and Barry have good games, it is more than possible, it is likely.
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First
second?
2nd ! WOO HOO
Like you say, if we play as we did on Wednesday we can win, if we play anything like Everton or Stamford Bridge they will slap us.
Looks like they have alot of players out as well.
Totally agree with you Damian.
This imo, is the biggest game this season by a mile, up to now.
Whilst on the whole, I've been supremely confident all season, I have a nasty feeling we're in our bad run where things don't go right for us
I'm not even going to make a prediction for this one, as I reckon it could go either way.
I always thought that I would be cheering for Villa this season only when they are below us. Turns out I will be cheering for you also tomorrow
Good luck!
Good post Damian as it makes clear what the ingredients will be to secure a win or at least a draw for us. Apart from our offensive style of play, it will take a big task for our defence to resist drogba and co. I really hope we'll not concede because of defensive errors.
I'll go out to an irish pub to watch the game in holland. Feel really excited
I agree Damian, the game will be won/lost by the width we create. If Young and Milner fire on all cylinders we've evry chance of beating them because Chelsea are sooo narrow. I'm delighted Joe Cole wont be playing (and we catch them just before Essien makes his return too
)
My worry is that Ashley loses his first couple of duels with Bosingwa and then goes into his shell, as we've seen a bit too often when he faces a fullback who he 'doesn't really fancy much'.
I think we'll concede early (probably a deflected Fat Lampard goal)and then its all about how we respond.
My prediction 1-1. Barry penalty. I'd settle for that too I think...
Really can't wait till tomorrow! I think we will give them a good game. Hopefully Milner is fit to play and we can bombard them with crosses as you say....lets hope Gabby has bought a new head over the past few days....
I think we could just edge this. I would be a happy chappy with a draw though I must admit.
Come on boys! Do it for Birchy!
Just read this on another site;
Here's an amazing statistic: when Chelsea entertained Coventry in the Premier League on May 4, 1994, there were just 8,923 fans at Stamford Bridge.
So much for them being a big club
Reply to Badger:
I know yeah.... I've told _AA_ to go armed with that link to the Chelsea forum because he was winding them up last week!
Hey vlllarobin - In my little world 2nd means champions league... sad git I know.
BTW - went to the UEFA game on Tuesday, and a very strange feeling came over me. It was the first game I've been to at VP this season but unlike previous years where we go a goal down and the confidence of crowd and team evaporate I genuinely was not worried that we wouldn't score. And then we did...
Confidence of crown and team, hand in hand. I think we'll get at least a draw tomorrow, and that's enough. We must not lose the game though, if we do the jitters will really start.
Carvalho and cashley are out tommorrow!!
I think we should play ash on the right as they will possibly play that Mineiro bloke!!
We will win this!!
COYL!!
Reply to vlllarobin:
lol u got a bit too excited there
Any news on Cech? He missed the last match and Hilario played.
Ferreira will be left back for Chlesea tomorrow. There defence is useless dealing with crosses at the best of times and with Cole and Carvalho out surely thay must be even weaker at the back.
ahhhhh this is exciting!
I'm not convinced that this is as big a game as the Arsenal game at Villa Park turned out to be. Given the way we played, if we'd lost that one things could have worked out quite differently. But tomorrow is undoubtedly a big game - but how big we'll only know a few weeks down the line. It's a potential 'turning point' game. Winning tomorrow, and our outside chance of a title challenge remains alive. Draw, and the title will look beyond us, but anything from 2nd to 4th is possible. Lose, and it'll be a question of how MoN and the players react; 2nd to 4th will still be possible, but we'll have to (again) show great character.
I believed that when Chelsea lost at Anfield, we'd finish top 3 at the minimum, because I could see Chelsea focusing on the FA Cup and CL and coasting to 4th. But with Scolari gone and Hiddink in, I think the focus will be on every game - at least initially. Tomorrow will be tough. Chelsea aren't at full strength, but then nor are we. I'm not going to make a prediction, because I don't have to. Ha! But I'm sure we'll be positive, looking for a win.
And I wouldn't be too disappointed to see the same team we fielded on Thursday. As well as Milner has done, if he were to play, in all likelihood Gardner would move to right back and Young across to left back, and I'd then worry about numbers in the central midfield area. A narrow 4-4-2 would be what I'd use tomorrow - although Milner in for Carew and the 4-5-1 could also work.
Here's hoping Birch gets a fitting tribute, and a result he'd really enjoy.
UTV
I seem to remember quite a few chelsea players were out when they beat us at stamford bridge in oct so i'll just be happy when the fat bird belts out a song at 0.0 and stay 3rd!
UTV
We will win tomorrow.
The second half on Wednesday was fantastic and we could have won by more. Chelsea are struggling and after their average performances recently we may actually have the 'fear factor' on one of the so called big four - it's about time they worried about us rather than vice versa.
Barry will be out to overshadow Lampard, Petrov is playing fantastic and our wingers should be bang in form at the moment.
We have struggled at home because we haven't been clinical enough, we still create loads of chances every game and that's half the battle. When the supply dries up from the midfield that's when you have got serious problems and that's not the case with us thankfully. Look at the Wigan game - we could have won 10 nil with better finishing (slight exaggeration).
At some stage Gabby is gonna start finding the net with everything he touches and I think it will be tomorrow - his patchy spell in front of goal has gotta end some time.
Big John should be fitter after 90 minutes in the week so lets hope he gives Terry a roughing up - he hardly played like an England Captain against Spain did he? His marking for their second was shocking! Terry and Alex aren't the quickest either so Gabby and Big John should really fancy their chances of getting on the score sheet tomorrow.
Forget the draw - our dodgy home form will end tomorrow - it's just a question of how many chances we can finish.
Up the Villa and keep the faith - tomorrow is gonna be fantastic
Reply to keefvilla:
They have been very poor at the back all season from corners and crosses. Its a pity that Laursen isn't fit. Hopefully Carew's goal will kick start him for this game.
Obviously I meant we could have scored more on wednesday not 'we should have won by more'. I was at the game so I do know we didn't win
On that note too - %@#*-YOU CHANNEL 5 -
Who shows the 1st leg of a game and not the second leg - what a disgrace!!
Isn't that the equivalent of them turning a game off at half time and saying "what a great game, sorry folks, we can't show you the second half so you will just have to use your imagination" TW**TS!!!!
ak_27
I was wondering if it would be a good idea to play Heskey (if fit) and Carew up front tomorrow and hit crosses into the box at every opportunity.
Totally agree Damian
The Hiddink factor is going to be massive for Chelsea however
Reply to VillaMitch:
ha ha too true!
what do u think about this for a song.. to the tune of "oasis - dont look back in anger". just imagine the chorus at villa park on saturday.
And so chelsea can wait
they know its too late
as we're walking on by
As 4th slides away
Don't look back in anger
we're here to stay
(forever and a day)
not sure about the last line though.
up the villa.. keep rolling on!
Just read the article...You're a master at pointing out the obvious Damian...lol
I'm pessimistic about this one. Just think there's a lot riding on it and I have seen the team bottle it earlier in the season and previous seasons. Just hope they go into this full of confidence, because this team is easily capable of turning Chelsea over.
I won't predict a score, because there is no point. What will be, will be.
Considering the game at Stamford Bridge (could have been 4-0) and how the season has progessed since then simply being ahead in the table is an amazing feat- I'd take a draw and be happy. I am a little worried that Petrov is giving them a little extra something to play for with his comments.
Either way tomorrow is massive.
UTV!
"Arsenal have players coming back and the confidence is growing, plus with Villa slipping up a little bit they'll still be hoping to get that fourth place."
What planet is that nonce Lawrenson on, he hates the Villa and I hate him
Reply to VillaMitch:
VillaMitch what a post mate, if that doesn't get you up for the game - nothing will ! Well done mate.
Reply to keefvilla:
But would you drop Gabby?
Reply to MFVillan:
Yep, draw will be absolutely fine, would take that. I have a little feeling involving 4 villa goals, however
Team for the weekend..?
Friedel
Shorey
Davies
Knight
Young
Young
Barry
Petrov
Milner
Carew
Gabby
Subs: Guzan, Clark, Gardner, Sidwell, Salifou, Fonz, Heskey (not 100% fit)
I hear Alex and Cole will be missing, so I would start with Gabby as he will trouble Mancienne and Terry with his pace! I think we got enough in our starting line up to get a result on Saturday!
Villa_Dude:
If thats the team we go with then I will be more than happy. It's certainly the team I would pick from the players we have fit and is good enough to turn Chelsea over.
As a bona-fide 'Shorey Lover' I will be pleased if he keeps his place - lets face it - the back four hardly covered themselves in glory at Everton while he was sat on the bench did they.
Anelka and Lampard are the only ones I am worried about but our midfield and attack will give them far more problems than they give us, especially if Gaz Baz performs like he did on wednesday - he ran so much that his shirt actually came out of his shorts in the second half ha ha ha!
Reply to Jimmy_Villain:
Lawrenson's been spouting that sort of shite all season. The mullet sporting tit.
I'd be chuffed with a draw tomorrow, anything more and its happy days!!
UTV
Reply to ak_27:
Could play Gabby wide right if Milner out or bring him on with 30 mins to go to run at Chelsea's tiring defenders, Heskey probably wouldn't last 90 mins anyway if he is fit enough to start.
I'm afraid that similar to Manu & Liverpoo, this has bagel-bagel written all over it
sadly i see the new manager effect taking place, even rednap had a decent effect on spurs when he first went there, and Hiddink is no mug........so with that is say 2-1 to Villa
We need a similar display of guts to that against Man U. If we do I won't complain whatever the result.
Reply to keefvilla:
That's exactly what I would do for sure.
Reply to Keefvilla:
Gabby is the worst right winger in the world, we watched him play there all season the one year - he hasn't got a clue what to do when the ball comes to him out there but he is a fantastic centre forward who gets better and better each season.
He has to play down the centre on the last defenders shoulder, thats where he is most dangerous. Some players can't play any other position - you wouldn't dream of playing Michael Owen, Berbatov or Torres as a winger and look how crap Anelka was when he was made to play as a winger last year - he has got nearly 20 goals playing down the centre this year. That's not an insult to these players as footballers, it's just that they aren't confortable or as affective in other positions.
I think there's more chance of seeing Gardner or even Delfouneso on the right than Gabby thankfully.
It's all irrelevant anyway - Jimmy will be fit - have faith in the Duracell-Bunny
I disagree with Damian this game will be won at the back,just one mistake against chelsea can cost you, and if we make any sloppy mistakes like we did against Moscow or Everton then we're in trouble.Hope Carews up front with Gabby as this is the type of game he loves.Just hope Ashley Young gets his head on, he played well against moscow but i like to see him taking players on which i dont think hes done since he come back from his ban. Also hope shorey does'nt get anywhere near the pitch hes a gutless wonder.
This is the one.
Not only do I think we'll beat them, but I think we will outplay them. Barry and Petrov to boss the midfield. Knight to score first. Gabby to score the second in last 20 minutes. Comfortable victory, no scares.
I'm drinking already today. I hope to be so drunk this afternoon that I sleep through and wake up just before kick off. Massive, massive game for Aston Villa Football Club.
I too am very worried about the whole new manager syndrome...
I think we will only win 3-0 instead of by 5 is scholari was still there 
does any one know if the european match is on tv next thursday? I've checked the listings for it and it doesn't seem to be on any channel at all, not even setanta.
aparently NRC and Cuellar are back from injury, hope this is true
Reply to WalesAVFC:
link?
Reply to craig middleton:
channel five
We can't score at home, they are jammy f**kers! This'll be a frustraiting 0-1 with 50p head Gabby missing a hatfull. To get a result big John needs to pull his socks up and bully their defence. The southern p**fs i'll run a mile. Please let me be wrong, pleeeeeease!!!
Reply to Fitzy_7:
no link is whats been said on a villa forum
LINK
Damian is right 4-5-1 is the way to go. At Stamford Bridge Aston Villa were overwhelmed in midfield with a 4-4-2. Of course Joe Cole was playing then and now he's out. No Ashley Cole means Villa should be able to rampage up and down the wings with impunity.
My lineup:
Friedel
Shorey, Knight, Davies, L. Young
Young, Petrov, Gardner, Barry, Milner
Agbonlahor
The beginning of the Chelsea decline was a 2-0 defeat at Villa Park last season. Now the decline becomes a death spiral for Chelsea with another 2-0 defeat!
Y** ** ***!!!!!
If Reo-Coker is fit then I would put him in Gardner's place.
we win this we can grab second imo. confidence will go through the roof
and another 3 or 4 match unbeaten run will see us through.
we should go 4-4-2 and try and take the game to them. if we can get the early goal they will panic and go all out for the equalizer. then we can just sit back and pick em off
we score first we win simple!
If we win this football game we get awarded three points, If we lose we get none and if we draw we get one point. If we score more goals than Chelsea FC we win. If we score the same we draw and if we score less we lose the football game. We will be allowed to field eleven players with one of them being a goalie, Chelsea in turn are allowed the same amount.
Reply to taglor:
cheers for that very insightful
Reply to taglor:
You really are messed up!!!
UTV!!!
Reply to craig middleton:
WHAT!!!!!!!!!!
UTV!!!
An excellent illustration of the difference between fact and opinion - but is that what the site is for??
My team prediction.
Friedel
L.Young Knight Davies Shorey
Petrov
Agbonlahor Milner Barry A.Young
Carew
Subs. Guzan, Bouma, Clark, Sidwel, Gardner, Heskey, Delfouneso.
If we play this team i think there's a v.good chance we'd win. Aslong as sidwel doesn't start i'm happy.
Reply to THE_AV_VILLAN:
The game is on Ch5 next week. Ch5 also televising the next round if we qualify
Reply to Vital_Loans:
Sorry..Ch5 also televising next round WHEN we qualify
Premier league fantasy footie site are saying Milner is doubtful tomorrow with a thigh injury. Anyone know anything about this?
This is a win or a reality check one or the other
Lost on sunday - Drew on wednesday - Win on saturday
To check for games live on tv go to this link tells you ahead of time great for seeing if our away game is on
LINK
Reply to vlllarobin:
FAIL
I think we can win this game if we have the right people come back from injury and both of our CMs have good games. Chelsea controlled the midfield last time, it's very important that we don't allow them to do this. And I really hope Milner is fit, because Ashely Cole is injured and that gives us a big opportunity to control the right side of the midfield if they think they can just number up on Young. This is our game! UTV
I sat here at work idly reading through the comments above when I came to Taglor...
A violent shudder starting at the base of my spine travelled up my back to leave my head shaking uncontrollably, as I tried to imagine what his terrace chant would be. My imagination will one day be the death of me.
I hope we win, I would accept a draw, I fear we may lose. The players are going to sweat blood for us - thanks guys.
UTV!!
Reply to Nan_was_a_fan:
Spot on, massive game, draw will do though
Now Damian, i know this has nothing to do with the article and i hope i speak for more than a few people when i say this but i think Petrov deserves a lot more appreciation than he currently gets. Over this season i have been thouroughly impressed with his performances. I have decided to write this after the performance he had on wednesday, keeping the ball nicely and as you said often getting the ball out to the wing.
So i believe there should be a conetest for the person who comes up with the best chant for Stilyan Petrov (excuse the spelling). We have chants for Gabby and other players but i think he is a confidence player and we as ASton Villa supporters should boost that as much as we can
I will set the bar at the orignal football chant
"theres only one Stilyan Petrov"
Sleep has not come.
Drink.
Please let it happen.
Scott Minto, former Chelsea player on talksport
"Aston Villa are the second best team in the country"
I have no drink
Sleep it is then
2-1 Villa.
Barry and Gabby.
3 points.
Red wine is great.
Up the bloody Villa!
villa VILLA VILLA!
VILLA! VILLA villa
2-1 UTV!
The only reason for Chelsea to suffer against Villa is ah emotional raise because of Hiddink's coming Chelsea's coach, no other possibilities. 2-0, I think.
Villa Villa VILLA!
Let's get in amongst it eh?
See the Russian gangster scum off...
I am about to go to sleep in the states, I need the rest, but I am afraid that my excitement about this match might prevent me from sleeping. Come on you Villa boys!
Y** ** ***!!!!
Reply to legsofbremner:
Sorry... I'm not a nutter, but something has to be said about their owner, doesn't it? Chelsea fans must be stupid and happy that millions of people are fucked because of HIM?
Just a thought...
Over served and emotional.
Let's just win it.
Number 1, i fucking used to love watching Paul Birch, Number 2, sorry for negativity, just me, Chelsae will us today.....just because of the NEW MANAGER........
I hope Gabby finds his shooting boots soon. He was again frustrating against CSKA by unnecessarily wandeering offside or running full belt into 3 defenders. I think the Fonz will have a more natural predatory instinct in front of goal. That said, if Chelsea come and play attacking football, we might reap the rewards of his pace.
Petrov and Barry were the class acts on Wednesday and they will need to be at their best today to control mthe midfield. I would like to see Ash have a few more pot shots when he cuts inside and look for Gabby and JC to feed off the rebounds/deflections. We are not able to unlock defences through the middle yet.
I hope Zat doesn't try and run with the ball out of defence too often like he did on Weds, as I had kittens everytime he was caught. A simple pass to Barry or Petrov will suffice or the predictable punt up front. I would absolutely if we added further misery on the crumbling Russian empire.
we shall not we shall not be moved
we shall not we shall not be moved
cos we're the team thats gonna win the premier league
we shall not be moved
We win today and we are bang in the title race! Just keep quietly doing are business and wait for united to slip up.
Villa have their most important game in the season its time to prove we are top 4 material
LINK
Someone get rid of Alan Green please
Don't know why but I've got a bad feeling about this game. Suppose it's the fact we've flattered to deceive so far in this "biggest week of the season" for us, added to the fact that new manager syndrome will most likely be in effect for Chelsea.
Think I'd be more than happy with a point today.
Today is going to be a good day!!
Draw. 2-2
This game will be all about the new manager syndrome. We will have to be at our best. If Martin plays 442, as Damian suggests, then its all about one of the front men coming back to help the midfield when they have the ball and getting forward fast when we have it. It is a tough job that few last more than an hour doing. I agree its our best option and I would play it.
Heres the betting odds
Aston Villa 23 - 10 Draw 11 - 5 Chelsea 5 - 4
Aston Villa 1 - 0 15 - 2
Draw 0 - 0 7 - 1
Chelsea 1 - 0 11 - 2
Aston Villa 2 - 0 17 - 1
Draw 1 - 1 9 - 2
Chelsea 2 - 0 17 - 2
Aston Villa 2 - 1 10 - 1
Draw 2 - 2 13 - 1
Chelsea 2 - 1 15 - 2
The 1-1 draw at 9-2 suggests the bookies are not sure how this one will go, but Chelsea are favorites.
I would let my heart rule my head and go for Villa 2-1