Match Prediction: Bolton at Villa Park equals potential banana skin
Friday, 12 December 08, 03:59 AM · Comments (37)
Bolton have won more games away from home than we've won at home this season and whenever I have sort of expected a result this season, it's not happened.
This game has the potential to go horribly wrong. So horrible in fact that the cynical side of me, reserved for a Barry post later, could really go to town on this prediction, but I'm not. I've got it in check.
I'm also usually full of confidence at this stage of the week and after a good result and I would normally say something along the lines of 'however, Bolton are not in the same league and I don't expect us to slip up and we've turned the corner', but I'm not going to do that today.
Instead, my balls of steel confidence, usually reserved for teams like Bolton and Fulham at home, is in check. Don't get me wrong, my never say die attitude towards getting three points at home is still strong and I'm predicting a home win, but stupidity and confidence are brother and sister and today, I've grounded one and I'm allowing someone else to go all out with a home win.
If you didn't know, OleOle.com is a playground for anyone to create a blog and I read a prediction post earlier that was worth the link. Basically, more thought was put into it than I usually put into my day, so all you have to do is click here for a read.
Bottom line, it is a crucial game for us tomorrow. We're at home, against a team that, surprisingly, is doing quite well, but we're expected to beat. The thing is, we need the three points and I think come kick off, getting the three points will actually become more important, as I fancy Middlesbrough to beat Arsenal in the early match.
However, that is where bottle comes into it. Whatever the result in that match, three points is important, as the gap that we now have, really can't be, after all this hard work, just thrown away.
Tomorrow comes down to bottle, not taking Bolton lightly and how badly they want to win this game.
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37 Comments · Add yours
Yep could be another potential day of frustration, but im hoping gabby really comes out tomorrow and shows what he is about, like he did againt man city on the 1st day of the season!
Your right Damian that the attitude of the players is the factor that will decide the result. Bolton must fancy this given their recent form and they are a team not to be taken lightly. Still I think Martin will have the team in the right frame of mind and we will win 2-0.
if boro win then expect the villa to bottle it but an arsenal win will take the pressure off for a home win and maybe open up a gap between 5-6
NO ONE EAT ANY BANANAS TILL MATCH FT
This game is worrying me for 3 reasons,
1. We struggle to break down teams that come to defend, see Fulham last home game.
2. 4-5-1 is not the best formation to play against a team that puts everyone behind the ball and doesn't utilise Gabby's strengths.
3. Gary Cahill has a point to prove.
Having said that, I will be positive and agree with DeGough,
2-0 to Villa but only after MON brings on Harewood and changes it to 4-4-2.
keefvilla
what about 4-3-3?
Up the Villa...... anyone in the Newt for 11am?? Xmas party before watching the Villa get 3 points!!!
Reply to AVFCBlog:
Don't you start on me! You a yid or something?
4-5-1 or 4-3-3 still doesn't suit Gabby strengths and he isn't as effective as a lone central striker playing against a deep defence.
we saw that from the Everton game and im pretty sure i made this point, it wasnt gabby playing up front, in reality it was ashley young, gabby kept playing the support and pressurising!
4-3-3 doesnt work that was what we were sopposedly playing against fulham when attacking but noone could keep up with gabby so unless we get on to a set piece then 4-5-1 or 4-3-3 whatever does not work at home.
I agree - look at that third goal against Everton - it was smart play from Gabby - dropping back and playing Young in - maybe it's just taking a little time for Gabby to fit into the role?
I hope O'Neill sticks with it a little longer - to ether find out that it works or that it doesn't, but it needs a few games to be sure.
I dont expect bolton to come and just sit bak like fulham did so im hoping it wont be as hard for us to break through them.surely we cant go 4 games without a home win cause that would be unthinkable!
I disagree that the attitude of the players is the key factor today. I think that the great strength about this Villa side - and this is credit to MoN - is our attitude. MoN won't allow us to take Bolton lightly. My concern is that we've not played well since the Arsenal game - and we'd been terrible in the previous three fixtures to that (ok, we were alright against Prague, but that was a semi-reserve team). Keefvilla is right about 4-5-1 not suiting Gabby, and when you're playing a formation that doesn't suit your only striker, it is hardly a surprise that we've been struggling to score at home, and struggling to get results against inferior teams who play negatively against us (which of course is their prerogative).
I hope we win, but a convincing victory is unlikely, and certainly less likely than another draw. We're lacking at least one striker in the squad, either so we can play two up top, or so that we have a target man, and Gabby can play wide right, and be rested when needed. With Carew in the team, I'd be very confident. But he's not, so I'm not.
As for the forthcoming cynical post regarding Barry, I would support him to the hilt if, in the summer, he demanded a move, we having failed to finish top 4. He'd still only be 28, but he has every right to want to play CL football (even if the competition is a bit of a joke). He has done everything to get us into such a position, and has been our best player for six or seven seasons. He's a genuinely good chap and a model professional. He's done everything he could. If we fail to finish top 4, I don't believe anyone could honestly say that MoN had done everything he could, so who's the bad guy?
His performances on the pitch, and his public words, indicate only one thing; that he's 100% committed to Villa here and now. This is undeniable. By all means continue the silly suggestions that Barry isn't top 4 quality (when he would walk into any side in the Premiership). Please just don't bother getting five from two two's as per his commitment.
UTV
I think Gabby can cope with that lone striker role, but he has to be willing to put himself about. In the Arsenal game, he was popping up all over the pitch, as he did for England.
On one of Gabby's lazy days, the lone striker system isn't going to work and the best we can hope for is to try to win plenty of corners and free-kicks around the box - we always have that up our sleeve.
As Damian and Villa_1_2_3 have said, Gabby dropped a bit deeper against Everton for the final goal to link up the play and that really is the key to playing that system. If he's not getting the service, he needs to go and get the ball from deep and bring Young, Milner or Sidwell into play on the overlap.
An early goal always helps us as it forces the opposition to come out and play, exposing them to the counter-attack, so that could also be useful against Bolton. Conceding first has the opposite effect (like against Wigan last year), so we need to be careful about that.
Reply to PaulE:
The reasons Gabby did well against Arsenal and not Fulham is nothing to do with laziness.
The system does not work against teams that show little or no attempt to attack and play with everyone behind the ball. Arsenal attacked, Fulham didn't.
I would like to see us have a plan B involving Barry on the left and Young playing across the forward line so that he can get into the box and do those little dives of his. I still think a 3-5-2 is feasible at home when you know teams are sitting for the point. To me we are ideally set up for Barry and Milner to go wide yet still provide adequate protection on the flanks and Cuellar Davies and Laursen to defend. This would allow Petrov, NRC and Sidwell to command the centre.
I don;t think it is in Bolton's mentality to defend for 90mins therefore I fancy our chances. Villa to win 2-1.
How about playing 4-4-2 with Young and Gabby upfront and Milner on the left (where he prefers)?
Says a lot about our home form really if we're calling Bolton a potential banana skin. By that logic, pretty much any and every single team in the league is a potential banana skin. Bolton aren't a particularly good team.
We just need some one up front to put away the chances that were created and missed against Fulham and Boro. so why not try Ash in the middle with gabby..
the key to beat em will be
-stay on your feet and don't give away any free kicks or corners. Our defence can coope with everything else that bolton have.
- play 4 in midfield
barry left, petrov and sids centre, milner right,
ash floating and gabby up top.
that should sort the lancs out.
thre points here would be priceless in the scheme of things. the next three are very winnable. if we ere to do that then the gap would be massive and we can start to believe.
I'm fed up of being disappointed becuase we lose to teams that we should roll over if we want to challenge top 4.
The key is Milner running all over JLloyd.
Bottom line is we have to win and not let Arsenal open a gap.
Totally of topic, but worth a read:
LINK
Plus, if you zoom out you'll see that O'Neill and Villa on the back pages go back over 25 years!
Nice link Woz, we never tire of reading about that night.
Saturday; we should win. MoN has had a few disappointments this year (Fulham etc), but he's a clever man and knows how to put things right. Most of the side are his acquisitions, so he's only got himself to blame if things go wrong. I back him 100% to get the tactics right for a Villa win.
id say either 3-1 villa or 2-2 if bolton get lucky
Right, I'm gonna stick my neck out here. I think it is run time. I think we'll have a glorious Christmas that will prompt people to think that we are definately Top Four and the pain will start in mid January.
So I think we'll spank Bolton tomorrow playing good faootball and they'll be more to come while we're all merry during the drinking season.
To quote the man himself, I'm off for a beer.
(Well the odd bottle of Chardonnay to be factual but facts are dull.)
Bolton have been doing fairly well recently and are a good side though Villa obviously, are still a much better team!
My point is, Villa have struggled against the weaker teams this season on a few different occasions (Stoke,Boro,Fulham etc) and im just hoping its not the case tomorrow.
I wudnt recommend anyone to get cocky as we have lost worse games before. I think it will be a really close match but i think we`ll come away with the win!
Didn't know that Gary Megson was named Manager of the Month for Nov. Maybe that curse can extend to this match.
This is another one of these games where we SHOULD win, i think we will win but it'll be a very close game. Of the topic slightly but i think we should be trying to get Henrik Larsen down here, he would be a brilliant foil for Carew and his experience in training could give Gabby the tips needed to be a great striker, look, i know he's ancient but he shore knows where the net is.
Hi guys, i'm in australia and yet again fox sports has snubbed the villa. They are broadcasting every game this weekend bar ours. Does anyone have a link to a free stream of the game? if that exists. I would really appreciate it!
RobL - Try www.justin.tv, shows most games
i see arry fatnapp says on sky thats its okay for spurs fans to give berbatov stick when they play man u,is this the same red fat twofaced person who always moans about the stick he gets at villa park??
villa to win 2.0 with barry getting both!
Reply to RobL:
same here mate - couldnt believe it when i saw they had every game on viewers choice bar Villa. even west brom v sunderland and wigan blackburn are on!
we need a win and i think today we will come up trumps
We've scored one goal in 3 home games. We need a rethink if we're going to win today. And while I've put my betting money on the Villa I've got a nasty feeling it will be 1-2.
Anyone think my accumulator will come in? Got Liverpool, Man City, Wigan, Reading, Palace, Wolves, Celtic and of course the mighty Villa all to win. Got a fiver on it for a £250 win and feeling quite confident!! Then again, i always do. 2-0 Villa today, Gabby and Laursen to score
Here comes that run I predicted earlier.