Match prediction: Newcastle United

If Newcastle still had Graeme Souness as manager I would have put this down as a home win without a second thought but since Newcastle sacked Souness a little more thought has to go into the prediction.

If Newcastle win their game in hand over us and they win on Saturday they would move five points clear and if results went well for them they would move into the top half of the Premiership. With Roeder and Shearer sailing the ship and 'new manager syndrome' in play it is highly possible things could go their way.

Remember when O'Leary first took control of Villa - 'new manager syndrome' took us to 6th place in the Premiership and within touching distance of Europe.

Time for some stats. We've played Newcastle 142 times and lost 61 of those, drew 30 and won only 51. Not often I get surprised by a statistic but before looking for it I had us down as clear leaders - let's hope this weekend we move a little closer to rectifying this.

At home this season Villa have won 25% of the matches played and let in more goals than scored. Newcastle away this season have lost 75% of the matches they have played and conceded nearly twice as many as they have scored.

To the match. With Michael Owen Newcastle have looked much better and he does like to score against Villa. Fortunately for Villa he is still injured and without him they are losing a massive threat in front of goal but with 'new manager syndrome' they are going to come to Villa Park with a new confidence and the victory last week against Portsmouth will help.

However, Villa have had a good run of late and confidence is high. Milan Baros is fit again but will he start? In my humble opinion Phillips and Moore should get the nod only because they are on a roll and they should be given the chance to continue where they left off against Middlesbrough but we'll not know for sure what the manager has in mind until Saturday.

James Milner and Smiler McCann are also not available for this match which may also see a start for young Craig Gardner. If he puts in the type of performance we all know he is capable of it will do his chances of a regular first team place no harm and also make a lot of Villa Park faces very happy.

Newcastle will come and they will battle and they may even get a goal or two but Villa are creating the chances at the moment which is the most important thing and something they have not done all season.

Phillips will always take one out of three and Moore, if given the opportunities will convert. If he doesn't Villa have the luxury of bringing on Milan Baros who will want to prove he should have started and offers a different attacking option.

I'm going to predict an Aston Villa win and quite an exciting one. One where we'll see an emphatic David O'Leary applauding the crowd or waving to the Directors box.