Match Prediction: Stoke at Villa Park
Friday, 27 February 09, 07:08 AM · Comments (77)
I've struggled writing this prediction post because I didn't want to mention Moscow, but it's sort of difficult looking at this match without doing that and this is my fifth or sixth go, each one sort of turned into something I didn't want it too.
I want to just put Moscow to bed and pretend it didn't happen but I spent a lot of money this season going to watch my team in European competition and it's not as easy as that.
It's not easy because some will be demanding three points from this match because most of the team should be well rested and while some will say we can't expect anything, I am going to find it hard to disagree with them.
So instead, I've approached this a little differently and while you all know I'm going to predict a win, instead of looking at why we will, I'm going to look at why I fancy Stoke will lose. Hopefully this will mean I don't look at Moscow although I know it's going to turn into more about us.
Stoke beat us earlier in the season with almost the last touch of the game and I think we were basically surprised at how they came at us. I don't think we'll see them do that again on Sunday and I think they'll be expecting us to come out of the blocks at 90 miles per hour.
They won't do it because they are in a dog fight and I think the most important thing for them is to not concede. They're going to come hoping to steal something and we are going to need to be on our guard to make sure that doesn't happen.
The thing is, because I fancy they're going to sit back and fight for everything, it is going to be harder for us to break them down and while I fancy we'll win, I don't think it's going to be because we over run them or play beautiful football, I think it will come through set plays and just much higher number of chances.
On the other hand we have Gabby, possibly the fastest player in the league and we've seen on countless occasions this season that if he gets given the space to run into, he can beat any defender to the ball.
It's also about time Gabby started taking some of these chances and while above I've as good as said I think our greatest threat is going to come through set pieces, I can also see Gabby getting a few opportunities to run at the Stoke defenders, just not many, but he only needs one to come good for his confidence in front of goal to return.
I don't think Carew will be involved on Sunday as the news that filtered through from Moscow last night is that he's hurt his back again. We're not yet sure of the severity of this back injury, but you've got to fancy it has to be quite bad if it's keeping him out of playing in such an important match.
So without Carew, we'll likely be starting with Heskey and Gabby up front and while I know Martin O'Neill likes 4-4-2, I think and I know this will rub some people up the wrong way, that five in the middle would be the best option on Sunday, but that's just because I'm a big fan of it and for the purposes of this post, I'll repeat that I think it's more a case of 4-3-3 but with Young and Milner tracking back when we don't have the ball.
It is possible Stoke will start with five in the middle and if we don't match them we're going to revert to long ball football and while I know Heskey is good at getting on the end of those balls all we're doing is risking possession every time and we're going to need the possession to win on Sunday.
So, Stoke are going to lose because they're not going to come and risk everything and it's going to be a scrappy game, but one I think we will ultimately win, because Martin O'Neill knows how to get his players up for a fight and a fight it most certainly be.
Like this blog? Help spread the word: 
77 Comments · Add yours
Lets go and win well to put last night well and truly in the past.
Second... just like Villa in Moscow!
Is Dollop playing for Stoke? I don't trust Curtis to deal with his rather intrusive missiles.
I think its a must win game. That said I think we will win, but as stated it'll be a close one. I'm going to go for 2-1 to the Villa with Barry scoring the winner from the penalty spot.
I'd agree 4-5-1 (4-3-3) would be the formation to go for, I think we look outpowered with just the two in the middle. I'd go for Gardner to partner Barry and Petrov, with Milner and Young out wide and Gabby upfront.
Although I think Heskey has done pretty well I always think its a mistake to change a formation just to fit a player in. I think we'd be better served with Heskey coming of the bench if needed?
Reply to odysseynumberfive:
Delap is suspended.
After yest I don't care what happen although I know we will win and I expect to win well scoring at least two goals min about yest itshould be tom when we rest players stoke must be easier to beat at home with a few first team players rested arsenal kids would beat them 6-0
Villa need a good 3-0, or 4-1 to show we are really in this and that arsenal cant bank on us slipping up! Gabby / usain or whatever we are calling him these days needs to find his scoring boots and the back of the net. Hopefully we shall have the legend that is nigel back!
How much pressure on this game given whats gone on?!
The arse play before us I think, so at least we'll know what we need.
This is a MUST WIN game, and I think we're getting better at winning "must win" games.
MON has put the cat amonsgst the pigeons.We need a substantial victory ---at least a two goal advantage---If we do that, then after the match everyone will be extolling his virtues -----AGAIN! Come on you lions!
The team should be...
Friedel
Shorey (Needs to be given another chance in prem - ideal opposition)
Davies
Knight
Young (Seems at ease in his preferred right back)
Young
Barry
Petrov
Milner
Heskey
Gabby
Subs: Guzan, Cuellar, Gardner, Sidwell, Reo-Coker, Harewood, Fonz
Injured: Laursen, Carew, Bouma (not fit)
My Prediction - 2-1 Win
Agre with the team selection VillaDude, I feel that Luke Young has been a very important player this season (I like these "get on with it, no whingeing, out of position" players!).
I can see a good solid performance, 3-1 to Villa, but why oh why have we got another game on Weds (Man City), when we have next weekend off - what the hell is going on with the fixtures....?
Up the Villa
we had better f%cking win! and we had better finish 4th otherwise this season has been completely pointless again! if we come 5th we may as well pull out of the uefa before the season so as not to tire any of our players!
My prediction 1-1 and aneil will have a lot of questions to answer!
Reply to tonebone:
tonebone,
Not wanting to have a go, but if anyone had suggested at the beginning of the season that come 1 March, Villa would have just been knocked out of the UEFA Cup and were still in touching distance of 2nd spot in the Premier League, most Villa fans (if not all!) would have bitten your arm off for that.
We need to put into perspective the tremendous season we are having so far - 14 points better off on the respective games last season and had a reasonable run in the UEFA. Come on guys lighten up we are still building, I see your point but it has still been a very good season....
Great new Link from News now to 4sportsake
"Although Villa dropped out of the Uefa Cup last night after losing to CSKA Moscow they are still in the FA Cup"
1-0 will be fine why do we need to win 4-1?
don't get gready!
1874 "Yes" Perhaps if the club at said at the start of the year we will not be able to strengthen the squad due to high wages etc & we will not take part in the FA, League & Into toto cup it would have saved the fans a lot of money and grief
They did not. In Fact they moved 400 of us out of our seats to make way for the new era
The Era of waving a white flag
Reply to 1874AVFC:
i agree we are doing better than last year mate! But do you not think mon would have expected us to be doing better than last year? I am certain he would have expected us to improve and this point last year we were within 5 points of 4th place. he must of fully expected us to be challenging for 4th placed based on his expectations of the team so why didtn he prepare for that! 5th place would be utterly pointless and the season would have been irrelevant because i assure you next season MON will expect us to be challenging for 4th so again that will end up prioritising!
lets be honest if we fail to finish 4th, spurs and pompey have definitly had a better last 2 years than us and in fact they probably have anyway!
and no we didnt have a reasonable run in uefa we had a POINTLESS run! what was the point of playing the games triring the players, riskign injuries etc to then not give a f%ck!
Does anyone else think this has got the wigan game at home written all over it??!!
And so....This is the peoples republic of Villa.
Every decision has to go before the fans before it can be implemented?
Whilst we are disappointed about Moscow, lets face it it was done for the greater good, and NO this isn't a must win game. Where we finish at the end of the season is the crucial part.
Truth is you and I are not the manager, we don't have the expectation of thousands of people riding on our shoulders every week. I am damn sure that, if we are honest, we would have screwed it up months ago!
MON is the man in charge and HE calls the shots, stop thinking that you know better cos you don't, otherwise you would be in charge!!
I believe in him and i believe in the team to do the business over the season not just in one game. So all you moaners get behind your team and stop thinking you know better!
Reply to tonebone:
Sorry mate, but I don't think MON would have been expecting us to be 6 points clear in 4th place come 1st March. None of us did.
He made a decision based on the here and now and if we finish this season in a Champions Lg spot then you and many others will come on here and tell us all what a genius he is.
BTW - giving young players experience of UEFA cup football and the demands of playing twice a week is never a pointless excercise.
Anyway - enough about that. It's all about Sunday now and getting 3 points to get back on track.
UTV.
I would like to think the Manager and players are well aware of the importance of this game. It is a must win game to cement MONS decision midweek. Road runner ( beep beep Gabby ) needs to prove hes not just pace and start putting away the good supply that Young gives him,unfortunately i do not think he has enough footballing awareness to be johnny on the spot like Owen. Sorry Villa fans more frustration comimg.
I'd rest our best 11, given we have a vital game vs Man City a few days later I reckon it's the only way forward.
We have a small squad and we need to prioritise so here's the 11 for Saturday: Spink, Barrett, Wright, Mountfield, Teale, Daley, Parker, Houghton, Curcic, Ormondroyd, Cascarino.
Reply to RSamVillaFan:
My friend, if you pay your money, your entitled to your opinion. Thats why we are called fans.
RSamVillaFan:
Go tell that to the poor souls who travelled to Moscow to watch that garbage.
MON is in charge for as long as he does a job: like german correctly pointed out, fans pay the money and support the club and are entitled to an opinion.
My feeling is that the Moscow selection was not just players resting. I think it was a) to avoid injuries on a plastic pitch in subzero temperatures and b) to give the starters no excuses (the flipside of being 'rested') and put the onus squarely on them.
So, yes, the Stoke game is important. I think we'll grind out the result. But whatever happens, it's the 11 men on the pitch that do the work. Chelsea didn't change from Scolari to Hiddink. The players just wanted Scolari out, were pouting and playing poorly, got their way, and signaled their approval by playing back up to their potential.
It's always on the players. Sure, the formation may have something to do with the result, but nowhere near as much as the effort, skill, and desire the players bring. They can all figure out how to get forward, get back, etc., regardless of what the "map" says. It's a very simple game. Get up, get back, get stuck in, and take your chances.
Simple as.
I resisted commenting on the Moscow game yesterday. Needed time to calm down. Anyway, Cuellar to play at right back as we will need his aerial presence. Stoke have a few injuries for Sunday and of course Delap is suspended, but the main reason they wont win is Mr T. Sorensen.
I predict 90 mins of looking to the sky to see where Stoke have hoofed the ball and a 2-0 Villa victory.
Reply to Monkeywrench:
Im afraid Cascarino has more chance of scoring than Heskey
..and Taglor is missing it all. His main seasonal opportunity to spout depressing shit after weeks of waiting and he misses it.
Must have lost himself in Morrissey's discography.
What a dark, unforgiving place that must be Monkeywrench.
Kohoutek has hit the nail on the head with his analysis. If we had thrown our best side at them on Thursday and had three injuries MoN would have taken more criticism than he is now. As for the players; right again Kohoutek, they know how to play and what is required. They will do it, I have no doubt about that.
Champions League next season! MON and RL ARE doing a bloody terrific job, i for 1 actually look forward to going down the Villa as opposed to it being a chore 3 years ago. This game has got the Wigan game written all over it. And if we create that many chances again we will win comfortably. If we had progressed in the UEFA Cup and sacrificed the chance of Champions League, say semi-finals and finish 5th, it would have been a good season, but Barry would leave, i think Ashley would think twice as he is good enough for Champions League, then Gabby maybe? But finishing top 4 which i believe we will keeps our best players interested, also gets BETTER PLAYERS interested and we progress AGAIN. So come on us Villa 'fans' lets get behind them! UTV, YES WE CAN , .
Here we go! we start again and we end the season well!!
lets have a 3-0 win lads
Gabby needs a few goals to get confidence back
If we lose to Stoke I am no longer reading this blog, because the depression that the angry mob inflict upon me will finally overcome the interest value of the more rational posters.
I'm with Nan
Nan, I appreciate what you're saying.
But how would you have felt if you were in Moscow yesterday, spending your hard earned cash to get there only to see that dross? Just a thought.
By the way - totally out of context - I was watching the Real-Liverpool game again last night and I couldn't believe the Spaniards were 1-0 down with Sneijder stuck on the bench..Christ, what a waste.
Monkeywrench...Can I just clarify something please...Were you at the game in Moscow yesterday?
No _AA_, I was tugging away to "Loose Labias 7".
Monkeywrench, German: Everyone has opinions you are not unique. Supporters however support not just pay their money and spectate.
Thought not..!
I'm not partial to loose ones myself, prefer nice tucked in ones, but whatever lights your candle. But I suppose it's something you don't get chance to try before you buy do you...
i'm so undecided on this whole uefa or league debate! The only thing I will say is if MON gets us into the champions league I will bet you all a weeks wages that there will be no moans on this blog!
But if we do make champions league we need to get rid of the dead wood (harewood, salifou and osbourne) and buld a bigger and stronger squad.
Reply to Nan_was_a_fan:
Second That!!
Well fuck it, the Uefa's gone and we're only ten or so games away from achieving something we would have sold our sister for only 2/3 years ago.
So let's back MON and the boys and see where that takes us.
2-0 tomorrow - Gabby and Barry.
UTV
It's been a poor 10 or so days but that has to be put behind us and MoN will get his players performing for Stoke and it will be a comfortable win.
I disagree with Kohoutek managers do make the difference, today's game is also about psychology and today's players need their ego's pampering or kicked into touch, I think Villa heads will be down and that's where MoN earns his money and my respect - pure class albeit a bit of a blonde moment in Moscow
Reply to Monkeywrench:
We play sunday
Nan, please don't go.
Monkeywrench, I think I've got that film, and how much do you want for your sister?
BillyBOY, I remember being embarrassed with our performances three years ago, we were hopeless most of the time, and only average at the best of times. This last two seasons have really quickened my heart, I expect us to win every game now, or at least scare the pants off the opposition.
i dont agree with the lineup i think villadude put up.
curtis will be a pussy till his shoulder is healed.
soo... heres the lineup i believe in.
brad
young, knight, carlos, shorey
milner barry potrov young
gabby heskey
i like carlos, he's been played out of position,
and u might say that shouldnt matter, but it does,
he didnt win a player of the year at rb, he did at cb
so put him there. i think he could be better than our beloved captain.
so give him a chance.
fastbackace, in the forum is a thread asking for votes on our best signing of the season. I haven't voted yet, but Carlos is right in the frame for me. He could be one of our best payers for years to come.
Believe Villa. Just believe.
Our home form hasn't been great so its quite important we improve it with a comfortable win
Im going for 3-1 villa we have a point to prove if we can't beat stokey without delap and a half fit fuller (the ones who caused damage last time) then we should all lower our expectations and give europa cup ago next season
Remember we have no right to win we play to win with all the rested players likely to be starting we just need a couple of injured players back ie coker and cuellar to sure up defence and midfield because both areas need addressing then i'm quite hopeful we can get back to winning ways
How cool would it be to see villa in the group stages of the champions leaue its just so flippin crazy slash weird incredible to even think its still possible i guarantee VP will be a sell out every game whatever the weather... dreams hey
3-1 VILLA - WE NEED THAT 1ST GOAL -
Nan, Please don't go. If we happen to lose or draw on Sunday the lunatics will run amok on this site and we'll need a few sane people to try and lock them back in their cells. Tonebone (not wanting to link you to my previous comment of course), I know you want us to win trophies now, but are you happy that we have improved each year so far under MON? 2006 end of season 42 points, 2007 end of season 50 points, 2008 end of season 60 points, 2009 with 12 games still to go 51 points. Of course it's possible that we will gain fewer than 9 points from the remaining 36 available but I won't be putting money on it. I think it's all a question of patience. If the squad keeps improving (which nobody can deny it has for the last 3 years) If our performance keeps improving (which it has for each of the past 3 years) then trophies will eventually come. I'm proud to support Villa right now and am loving the progress that we are making. I really cannot understand the mentality of 'fans' who seem to revel in being critical and find it so difficult to say something positive when so much is clearly going right in our club.
Its almost become a religion, a habit that unfortunately I can't kick. First the offical site followed by Teamtalk.com, polish it off with some AVFC news and then find myself to oleole! From that i get the following....what villa want you to know, from teamtalk you get feck all unless we are playing one of those massive teams, from AVFC news you get to know the worlds opinion and from oleole you get to know a fans opinion. Some of you need to lighten up. I think a majority of people that post on here think that MON reads it!!! Monkeywrench i'm with you (post 21). I think we ought to maybe give it until half time, bring on the Hare, take off a defender and then bring on a crap midfielder. Its a tactic straight out of a coaching manual (MON 100 finest moments in football). One thing is certain, nothing less than a win will do.
UTV!
Lighten up! Lighten up? Who was it who said; "Some people think football is a matter of life and death, it's more important than that"? OK Skeester, I get your point, but anyone who comes on here is a bit obsessed with all things Villa to start with. The only things which separate us one from the other is our stance (no teapots here pleez). Some of us are obsessed positives (sheep [quiet Nan]), others are obsessed negatives (Taglor et al). MoN is far too busy to read this, but some of the players pop in for a quick gander now and then - not that it would do them much good to read the ravings of some of us.
Skeester - come into the forum (said the spider to the fly) and see some of the most utter toot you;'ve ever read. All this technology, just so that we can share twaddle with each other.
2-0 but it prob wont be an easy game
He who looks at the light needs to be sure that it is the end of the tunnel and not an oncoming train! Look at it another way after the game on Sunday - Joy at a Villa win and everyone on here happy and satisfied that MON did the right thing or doom and gloom because yet AGAIN we haven't performed!
Yes we can....can we feck!
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin when the dealins done.
LINK
Are Villa fans Optimistic or Confident of finishing in the top four?
Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how to handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.
surely the return of mr nigel reo coker is being overlooked a treat?! its going to be a rough and tumble game... and we are going to need the much missed nigel back commanding it. play petrov and barry with him, dominate the midfield - young cutting inside, milner on the right, and tbh after all faith has been lost in gabby, big john upfront, if we need a goal, gabby comes on with that pace and inflicts hell... or tries.
Your hilarious Damien, 4-5-1 against Stoke, get a grip of yourself. You are off the wall. Sidwell IS SHIT also.
I find it funny that suddenly everyone thinks we're in trouble. A quick look at the premier league form table and we're STILL the second best team (By 3 points). Our home form needs improving but that is exactly what teams like stoke are for.
Stoke are really awful away from home, they cant score and they concede a ton. I think we are going to win, and I think we are going to score a lot of goals. I think we will really be well rested
On a different topic, I think Cuellar should start getting some time at cb at the expense of one of the two idiots. But tomorrow we will need that extra height so Cuellar if fit will definitely start at rb with Lyoung back the left.
Everyone is expecting a thrilling performance from villa after the moscow maulling, but to be honest, I'd settle for a scrappy 1-0 win. In fact I'd settle for scrappy 1-0 wins from now until the end of the season.
I read that the 300 fans who travelled to Moscow are invited to VP for dinner with MON and a few players. Wonder whats on the menu....Humble pie ?
Reply to andy575961:
Depends what they mean by best buy, for the future, sell on value or what, but if its for performances, it has to be Luke Young for me.
Reply to RSamVillaFan:
Well said...
Where is the reality from some of you? Where is the positivity? How old are you all? Don't you remember Josef Venglos, Billy McNeill, Tony Cantscoreino, Graham Turner - HD Ellis etc etc?
Im as disappointed as the next man with the way we seemed to roll over and give up a place in the FA and Uefa cups...I still think silverware is important - especially for the fans - you don't tell your blues mate that we are richer than them, we just talk about trophies and which division we are in!
Unfortunately I think we the fans have vastly different agendas than those running the club - at the end of the day CL is a big pay-day and probably has to be the priority for Mr Lerner. (I question how Arsene Wengers palns and transfer activity will change if they finish 5th?)
The fact remains that CL is the goal and 'should' be the springboard for the medium term future....
With that in mind and the very publicly stated 5 year plan - what the hell is everyone moaning about??
I defy any Villa fan to name a better combination than RL and M o'N to lead our club forward.
Who (who is realistically going to come to Villa) would be better than these two. I just can't understand the views expressed that criticise O'Neill's record in the past 3 years - there is absolutely no one else who would have reinvented our club as he has done.
When will the football community understand that Rome isn't built in a day? Look at the Newcastles and Spurs and Leeds of the world - you don't build the kind of success that Man Utd and Arsenal have had in the last 15 years in half a season - its long term stability and sticking with the right man - Ferguson, Wenger and O'Neill.
I for one am far more worried about when one of the 'bigger' clubs realises how good Mo'N is and we lose him....
Please, lets take a few minutes, have a good hard think and realise that we are in the best position we have been in since early 1982..and be oh so grateful we have Mr O'Neill pulling the strings...
Ingers, you're far too sensible. Where's the controversy in making totally balanced, reasonable and logical comments?
we'll draw 1-1..64.ingers..ghosthunter...AV Villa and the rest of you sheep wake up, this site is based on opinions, rightly and wrongly they're given out...its called freedom of speech, you lot bash anybody who DARE disagree with whats happening, i'll tell you this..If we get 4th i'll b the first cnut on here apologising about MON, if we don't then as MON says 4th is the holy grail then i'll expect 2see his resignation given.
heres a classic comment
"Three games in six days does take its toll and it's important to look at the bigger picture.
we'll Martin, ahhhhhhh, those poor PROFFESIONALS who'er racking in over 25k a week while this country's been brought to our knees, will it hurt these pampered cnuts playing an extra 90 fcuking minutes more... stop taking us fans for cnuts MON:
Aston villa will surely win stoke city
surely, Aston villa will beat the hell out of stoke city coz they have strong team
I really hope that MON plays Cuallar at center back instead of Knight and gives Shorey another chance to fined soom sort of form in the premiership, the formation i think we should go with is 4-4-2 even if we are starting with Heskey, this game is going to be a tough one but i think we will bounce back with a good result plus the last game we played at Stoke we got beat and i'am sure thats still fresh in are heads. VILLA 3-0 VILLA FOR LIFE
Reply to vogra:
And you and others make out anyone who is positive has no brain and is a sheep. Can't have it both ways.
Celebrate the difference views, challenge and argue but lets not get all sensitive if people disagree or have a bit of a dig its just part of the game
where is doc?
Stoke is a must win. can go within 1 point of second
thank you boro for stuffing liverpools title hopes
Etherington is out on suspension. Delap is still injured. We should be able to take this game to them. They are poor away from home. That said James Beattie has been doing very well for them up front.
Our players are fired up for this game and with the combination of that and the above. We will rifle in this game and rip them a new one. 3-1 Villa.
BTW stoke has won 1 of their last 12 games. If they get anything they will be luck to have a draw. Still we know what they did to us last time and out of their last three games they are 1-1-1. Anyways I still stick to us ripping them a new one. 3-1
Let's not forget the lads looked exhausted against Chelsea, particuarly Gabby. How do you really think they would fair against Man City if they has played in Moscow and then payed again on Sunday and again on Wedneday?
It's all very well saying that it shouldn't happen, and we should have a bigger squad, and we need to have more options, but the FACT is we don't.
If we hadn't had looked so tired against Chelsea I think the Moscow team would have been stronger, let's not forget that. MON looked at the leam, knows where the Holy Grail is and has made an informed decision, not on what should happen or where we should be but on the FACTS.;
I disagree Damian, Stoke will sit back so Aston will need 4-4-2 to break them down and they will. 3-0 win for Aston Villa which turns up the heat on Liverpool and Chelsea!
Dear Vogra,
I was wondering who you think Villa should get in following M o'N s 'resignation' following the disastrous season when we finish 5th or 6th?
Which high class 'win the league in one season with someone else's small squad' manager will be beating down our door? I hear Incy and Keano are looking.... oh Big Phil fits the mould....
I didn't intend to 'bash' your opinion - just having my say - freedom of speech I think you said. I am truly interested in hearing your and others' views on possible candidates for our manager's position if you feel, contrary to my views, that Mr O'Neill isn't doing an excellent job....