Match Prediction: You've got to fancy three points against Fulham
Thursday, 27 November 08, 02:30 AM · Comments (58)
Three times this season I've glossed over defeats with the classic 'if we were offered this place, after this amount of games at the start of the season, we'd have all accepted it'.
Well, I'm not going to on Saturday evening if we don't pick up three points, I'm just going to accept that this isn't the season where we're going to finish top four and possibly not even top five.
You might think I'm making something out of nothing, but we've got Fulham coming this weekend and while they're doing okay this season, only six points behind us, if we can't beat them at home, my belief for this season will have finally gone and I'll be running on hope.
When we lost to Newcastle and I banged the drum that they were bottom of the table I got stick, because they're a 'big team with lots of quality'. Well, they're still in the relegation zone, three points off bottom and while Fulham are doing better, this is a game that we absolutely have to, definitely win this weekend.
Not just because we'll go third, for a day anyway, but because we might actually stay there and it's quite possible that the gap between fourth and fifth could become four points.
Arsenal are playing Chelsea on Sunday and Manchester United have to go to Manchester City - we could be third by Monday and my God, wouldn't that be fantastic.
Now, we've all read this stories this week that Carew isn't first choice and Martin O'Neill has praised the 4-5-1 formation, so I fully expect us to stick to that for this game. Not because Fulham are a tough team or that we can relax and play two up front, but because everyone has been calling for consistency this week; O'Neill, Petrov, Friedel, Davies and others and because if the team are really looking for consistency then they've finally got to stick to a formation and not change every other week or when something doesn't go their way.
Change takes time, we all accept that, but Martin O'Neill has to stick with the 4-5-1/4-3-3, even if we do lose to Fulham. Change takes time and it's one of those things that the whole team have to get used to.
But we're not going to lose, because big Carlos might be back and the team have been able to rest all week and we're at Villa Park. We haven't lost to Fulham at Villa Park since March 1973 (in the league and thanks PaulE) and I don't expect it to start on Saturday; we're a better team with better players. That has to count for something.
So, you know my prediction but I want to add something to it. I don't think it will be a boring or scrappy game, I think it will be end to end stuff and I'm expecting to see Gabby do exactly what he did against Arsenal.
The consistency people talk about has to come from certain players and I'm expecting to see Gabby come good now. Him, Young and Milner are our main threats and very soon it's going to just click - my prediction is it's this Saturday, but that is based on nothing more than a desire for it to happen.
Possible starting line up: Friedel, Carlos, Davies, Laursen, Shorey, Milner, Sidwell, Petrov, Barry, Young, Gabby.
Finally and for the record; I've got bags more hope than belief. That's what comes after so many years supporting this club, but my levels are changing. I'm finding I don't need so much hope and I have more belief. But we need three points this weekend.
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58 Comments · Add yours
Fulham did beat us at Villa park about 10 years ago. I was there - we lost 2-0 to them in the cup before they got promoted. Unless you just meant in the league?
I really think we'll win this weekend. If we can keep clean sheets against Man U and Arsenal and carve our way through their defences, we can easily do it against Fulham. If the mentality is right, we'll give them a good hiding.
Good Piece Damian.
We need to win this so it does'nt seem like another false dawn.
Remember we had some great results / performances against the big clubs last season then threw loads of other games away.
We need to banish performances like Newcastle / Middlesborough. Of course we will still loose games, but there is a difference between loosing games and throwing things away.
Drawing the games that we dont perform in is the key.
PaulE
I did only check the league .. so I guess that is what I meant. Updated, thanks.
I think Fulham will sit back and try to catch us on the break or from set peices. Therefore it is a game for big John to play with Gabby up front. 4 4 2 is the best formation against a team that wants to defend. It will depend on the quality of our crossing and the finish to win. Should be 3 0 or 3 1 to Villa.
new to blog but have reading for awhile. A Villa fan for many years home and away in old 3rd div. Like you Damian have seen and heard many false dawns with the club , but i quess thats why we still follow them.For once though i feel that the club may deliver not this season maybe not even next but the way the club is now being run i am certain we will reap the rewards. Football however is about instant success so a good cup run would not go amiss to keep the fans happy while we continue to build for the future.The biggest problem i can see in the coming seasons will be to keep Martin Oneil once Fergie Retires.
Anyway lets look forward to 3 points on sat as you have already said we really do need to win these type of games if we are to continue with the clubs progress
Reply to celtic paul:
I don't think MON is that stupid to be the first manager to try and take on the Utd job after Fergie.
StevenRobotham
I'm hoping Carlos is fit - if not Luke Young for sure .. but I just like Carlos at right back
We really should beat Fulham but its a strange game and anything can happen. We've been good recently but prior (newcastle, middlesborough) to that we were looking a bit shaky.
Still I agree with Damien, the last 15-20 years or so have had had their ups and downs, more downs if I'm honest but as a Villa fan I have become accustomed to disappointment - but this new sense of belief is so much better, if things carry on improving as they have done over the last couple of years, were in for some good times I reckon.
I don't think he'll play Shorey! I think he would rather play Luke Young there.
Anybody got any thoughts on a 3-5-2 formation? Gabby and John up front...
PriceyN
i like 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 when defending .. just prefer 4-5-1/4-3-3 only because having 3 at the back can be a risk and having 5, i think is too much
damian,
i wrote my xmas list last night. I suprised myself that first on the list was wilfred bouma
We are having an AVFCBlog un-official first meet-up at this game, so it's going to be nothing less than a win.
Damian, i am getting a little disconcerted that is a few posts now that you have almost praised Milner....are you changing your opinion of him or has the rose colour specs slipped down??
Have to agree with AA, as there are a few of us going from the blog and meeting for the first time!!!! nothing short of a win will suffice, just to round off the day.
Oh and get AA a job application for manager when MON leaves for Manure! lol
Luke Young will play even if Cuellar is fit, either at rightback or leftback. Cant see Shorey starting this match, more likely the UEFA cup game next thursday.
I'm not a big fan of Cuellar at rightback anyway, not a natural at getting forward supporting Milner.
I agree with DeGough, this is a game we have to play 4-4-2 because Fulham will defend and try to catch us on the break.
Quite confident about this game, 2-0 to the Villa.
RSamVillaFan
I'm giving him chances, although, I did watch this video earlier:
LINK
and I even started to think about Barry as maybe having something to offer. Think it might have been the music though
Im just glad we have broken the 3 year cycle of
New Manager - Avoid Relegation
2nd Season - Good Season
3rd Season - Shit and sack the manager!!
Everytime a tear ran down my face whilst watching that one he clocked up another 5 grand in wages!!
Will his heart ever be at villa park again??
Just gonna go get my hankie....sob....sob!
i don't think Carlos is mobile enough for right back and in any case Young has been one of our best players. He has surprised me with his desire.
UTV!
Anyone meeting up with other bloggers please be aware of two northerners wearing cowboy hats and wanting to go to a pub called "brokeback mountain"
Reply to keefvilla:
If we do go back to a 4-4-2 who would you drop from the CM? If we do revert back to this formation i hope we put Barry LB. Also if Carew starts i just hope we don't return to just hoofing it up field hoping for the best. We have stoped this long ball crap the last 2 games and the results have been a consequence of this IMO.
Think we will play the same team to be honest. the meidfield is starting to look impressive and Mr O'neil rarely changes things unles forced to do so. The Fulham game will not be as easy as most think.
Reo Coker is the man to drop for this game. We need to keep possession for long periods of the game in order to draw their players out of position, which will create chances. Reo Coker's passing game is below par as he often trys the wrong pass and looses possession. His problem is his timing of the pass is usually too late. He will be a great player for us when he improves this part of his game.
Yep, forgot about reo. We needed his steel against united whereas a little more creativiy will be needed on Sat. Maybe a return for Shorey?
Check this out, the Villa theam tune, evocative!!
LINK
I will be at Villa as usual on Saturday, I think Fulham will prove tough opponents, Villa to edge it, 3-1
How many penalties has Barry scored for the Villa? Its prob more than from open play. I fancy a Barry penalty this saturday, lets just hope hes not off the field of play this time!!
I fancy Petrov at 7-1 to score at anytime. He is surely due a goal!
...ah! 10 years ago in the cup, Simon Morgan scoring for us and going ballistic; we were a divison below you at the time and you were riding high at the top. Times change, we are now playing in the same division, and Roy Hodgson has given us the belief that we are no longer the PL's annual whipping boys. We are strong in defence 4th or 5th best I believe, our midfield has a better understanding with each other and our forwards are starting to form a useful partnership.
Now we are no fools to think it will be easy, you have loads of talented players (and Zat Knight!) that many PL teams would love in their side, but you know when sometimes you get that strange, positive feeling...
Reply to LBNo11:
Yeah and I;ve got that strange, positive feeling..... sorry mate!
Reply to DeGough:
is that the score or the odds. lol
In some ways this is a bigger match than last week.....we had nothing to lose last week, now this week its reversed. We saw what Fulhams stubborn defence did to Pool last week so they are very capable. Just need to turn up with the same commitment as we did last week, particularly at the back....Fulham cannot match us if we pressure them like we did Man U last week.....doesnt matter if we play 1 or 2 strikers as long as we stand firm at the back and pressure through the midfield. 2-0 Villa
Reply to Villa_Chris:
...yeh, but my strange, positive feeling is considerawbly bigger than yous...
Reply to PriceyN:
are three center backs that would play just have'nt got the pace to play that formation, curtis has the best pace out of the lot and he's not very fast
Anyone else here wishing that it was Villa Park that AC Milan were going to tonight?? I am!
Oh well, we'll probably get them in the final!!
We will get them and beat them 3-1, Salifou brace followed by a returning legends strike (Freddie) as a late sub! Come on!
They last beat us in the league in 1966, score 2-5.
Reply to rob_h:
Out of a cake, dressed as santa or on the field?
All three knowing him (Damian that is).
Sorry, I meant to say last time Full Ham beat us in the league - not AC Milan obviously)
can sum1 pls tell me wots appenin wi bouma? any news on when he's back? is he back in light training yet?
completely off topic lads I know but I was watching the champions league highlights last night when I realised that a bunch of clubs that don't qualify for the CL will come over to the UEFA cup. If we win our group do we avoid playing these teams??? How does it work??
If you finish top of your UEFA Cup group you face a third-place team. If you finish second in your group you get a Champions League parachutist (wouldn't be so bad if you draw someone like Aalborg or Anorthosis Famagusta).
Klaas Jan-Huntelaar is coming to Villa!!....Please let this be true.
Bouma is due back 23rd Jan 09 according to LINK
Good news, cuellar fit!!
So who do ya play if ya finish 3rd in the group
BUTLER
We won't finish third!
Couple of interesting results last night in our group which leave us still top, with a game in hand over second place Ajax.
Did hamburg play last night? What were the scores?
Reply to ronvilla:
So you dont know then!
Hamburg lost to ajax 0-1
zilina 0-0 slavia prague
if we beat zilina at VP and need a draw away at hamburg to top group
Yeh, group f's starting to look very tidy.
sound, should finish top then!
Read the following link...
Did any of you vote to put this idiot into the Town Hall..
LINK
demolition day against fulham
this is the game the real villa were born
the day we rattled in 5-6 against a tough back four who were left flabbergasted and the rest of the league pringed their ears back sat up then ran away like scared rabbits in front of the flying villa machine..
all aboard the good times whoop whoop...
UTV
Reply to __AA__:
fuckin idiot smallheath already done that to gain recognition and to try and gain more support
Reply to AVFCBlog:
How about giving Nathan a go up front because MON clearly doesn't fancy the Hare? UTV