Number Crunching
Wednesday, 05 January 05, 11:32 AM · Comments (12)
Now it starts to get interesting. Our 2-0 win over Middlesbrough leaves us 7 points clear of Arsenal with 16 games to play. I'd feel more relaxed if we were 7 points ahead with 2 games to play but then it would be all over and I don't believe it is anything like all over. The one trait I loathe in other fans is arrogance. Stupidity I can forgive - it's not your fault if you support Spurs, probably there aren't enough forks in your family tree, but arrogance I just cannot tolerate. The arrogant must realise that Chelsea have won nothing yet.
Manchester United, whose powers of recovery I have great respect for, are not dead and buried. A few years back I bet a fortune (and I do mean a fortune) on them to beat Bayern Munich in the Champions League final... in normal time. United were 1-0 down going into time added on at the end of the game but I still inflicted major misery on my bookmaker, and United confirmed forever that they are not a team that gives up easily.
However 11 points is a big deficit. Manchester United once closed a bigger gap, but with respect to Kevin 'I'd love it if we beat them' Keegan and his Newcastle team, our defence looks a little more robust. If United won 12 and drew 4 of their remaining 16 games - a very, very respectable run of form - they'd hit 84 points. You realise the size of the task they face when you work out that Chelsea could lose 6 of their final 16 games and still get 85 points.
Given that it's likely all 3 relegated teams this year will have around, or even under, 30 points, I'd expect the top 3 to all have over 80 points and for the winners to have between 88 and 90 points, possibly more. My guess is 90 points will win it and despite my recognition of their past deeds I don't think United can rack up that many. They'd have to win 15 and draw 1 out of 16 games, and that's a very big ask indeed.
Chasing two teams is also a very different proposition. Even if we blow up, Arsenal (full stop there please) certainly won't. I have to be honest, I don't like Arsenal at all (an understatement) but that does not prevent me recognising their quality. They do have the capacity to win 13 or 14 of their last 16 games, no question about that. Where we have a clear advantage is that our reserves are deeper and stronger because of Roman's pockets. Against Manchester City Arsenal were stretched. They had a young, inexperienced defence out and they dropped points. Our reserve defence comprises Ricardo Carvalho (voted the best defender in Europe last season), Wayne Bridge, Glen Johnson and Carlo Cudicini. Work it out for yourself. Last night we rested our top scorer, Eidur, and in his place we brought in £24m man Didier Drogba, who incidentally looks to be back on form. We might win the League but we certainly aren't going to win any popularity contests amongst other clubs' fans!
I'm expecting Arsenal to push us all the way - they have 48 points now, and I estimate they'll add about 40 more, so they will end up with roughly 88 points. If I'm right it means Chelsea need 34 points from a possible 48, although that only allows a safety margin of 1 point. 34 points from 16 games is very gettable; it's a lower points per game average than we currently have and it means 11 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats would probably be good enough. Tantalising.
However I've suffered mightily over the years and seen Chelsea turn making a mess of things into an art form, so I'm not taking anything for granted. Arsenal will certainly put up a huge fight, but I'm hopeful we can do something this season which for me is the equivalent of unbridled optimism.
Finally a rumour I've heard: Chelsea are considering keeping their shirts free of any sponsors' name 'to please the fans'. So you'd get the club crest on the front of the shirt and that's it, no tacky advertising (Barcelona are currently the only major club in Europe who are mad enough to do this). More likely, I feel, is that Chelsea are asking for a vast, fat-boy extraordinaire type deal and are finding suitable sponsors hard to come by.
Kenyon stated the economic strategy of the club was to be financially independent, i.e. not reliant on Roman's ultra deep pockets, within five years. So turning our noses up at a shirt sponsorship deal, worth multi-millions, doesn't seem to sit very well with that goal. If the club is really thinking of a PR gesture then I suggest cutting ticket prices in half would be far better received by the fans. These days even the cheapest seat is around £40; cutting that back to £20 would have a dramatic effect. At the moment a lot of would-be Chelsea fans, especially younger ones, are priced out of games.
When I started going the majority of the crowd were aged between 12 and 30; now it's Middle Aged City. In the intervening years the amount of hair in the ground has probably not changed much: in those days there wasn't a lot because everyone was a skinhead; nowadays it's about the same because everyone is bald! Maybe our shirt sponsors should be Saga Holidays?
*Related links:*
* Clean sweep impossible - Mourinho * New year cheer for Chelsea Scrooges
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In answer to Paul 5/1/05 at 12.38pm
Is it because Chelsea were in fact the most sensible club in the country to deal with Mr Abramovich
or should they have stayed as a nice little club like Tottenham, just a nice little club with no ambition or should we try and win things with a lot of free transfers like say Arsenal or Man Utd.
What is it with Spurs fans? The phrase ‘Chip on the shoulder’ springs to mind. One throwaway, satirical comment about Spurs fans’ family trees and they get all upset! I’m pretty sure this article has absolutely nothing to do with your club. How about worrying about more important things, like trying to keep the best English striker from signing for us! ;-)
A fantastic and awesome performance last night and for once the crowd really got behind the team all night. Very different from the Villa game which was a struggle in the second half. I am with Blingo totally here, arrogance is bad and some Blues fans are already planning their spots for the victory parade down the Fulham Road. I too have seen us blow up far too many times to believe it is a foregone conclusion, however I DO believe this is our best chance in 50 years and that if this team can put in performances last night then the rest of the Premiership should be quaking in their boots.
Oh, and Spurs fans.,.....lighten up and learn to take the odd jibe. GJ
Definition of a well balanced Spurs fan – A guy with a chip on both shoulders…
And I hate Chelsea, even more than you hate Arsenal, Blingo. No, not really; before this season I never even thought enough about Chelsea to hate them. At least you lot have something to shout about and are not as deluded as the sad Spuds. I have to say that your number crunching does show the task of overhauling the current Chelsea “super squad” to be formidable, if not impossible. Still, you gotta keep plugging away and keep you boys as honest as possible (or as honest as you can keep wide boys and mercenaries!). I really hate the way Chelsea are doing it, but if I was a fan and my team hadn’t won the league for ages and I almost saw them go bankrupt, I know I wouldn’t give a toss what anyone else thought. Enjoy all the moments in the sun you can grab.
12 Comments · Add yours
Nice comment about it being stupid to support Spurs, but it looks like we may have removed one of your title rivals from the equation. I can’t see Utd making up 11 points because I cant see you lot losing or drawing so many matches. Anyway, Utd should be 12 points adrfit after Pedro Mendes ’ strike. See you at the Lane.
Honestly the won thing i love about being a life long spurs fan like millions of others is how much teams talk about us all the time instead of worrying about their own teams. When Chelsea get off their high allmighty lucky thrown they are a team that has won nothing yet and are only in this position thanks to one lucky break.They could have and should have gone bust its only because roman got turned down by man utd , arsenal and spurs you are in the position you are in