So it will be, after all the emotions, Germany and Spain facing off this Sunday for the title of Euro Cup Champion.  Germany and Spain ere the favorites since the beginning of this tournament.  I know I talk about yoonew contracts a lot as indicators but for once the futures market got it right.  Spain-Germany contracts which for intensive purposes predict who makes it to the finals have been screaming this one for awhile now.  So now that the stage is set who does this game favor.  Villa is out.  YES. He told on Spanish radio yesterday that he will be out.  The top Goal scorer for Euro Cup play had to be taken off yesterday for an injury obtained during a free kick.  Spain's depth is remarkable though.  Xabi Alonso and Dani Guizawho came in after the half both had goals and Fabregas who came in for Villa had the assist.  I'm sticking with Spain on this one.  Partially because I wanna see an undefeated team win it and partially because I still think Germany should have gotten stomped out by Portugal.   

You can't ignore that Villa almost single handedly knocked Russia from this tournament in group play.  The last time these two met Spain spanked Russia in a 4-1 victory.  A three goal margin is big for international play and the only two teams to loose by that same margin in tournament play were Italy, knocked out by Spain, and France, knocked out in Group play.  Russia's been on a tear as of late ever since the reinstatement of Arshavin from his two game suspension.  Pavlyuchenko has seemed to find his own as well and is only one goal behind Euro tournament goal leader Villa.  Villa and Torres are the biggest threat to this Russian defense and we've already seen them punch holes in and out of it.  Yoonew contracts for Russia in morning trading were bid at 1000 while Spain contracts remained Strong at about 3600.  Russian has never defeated Spain in international play.  Spain has won the last three times they met and drew once.  Today could be epic or just another Spainish team being Spain again.  

 Dan     

If you've been reading my blog here's a breakdown of the futures contracts that I've been discussing about that are on yoonew.  Some of the trading can be an indicator of certain teams that are held in too high a regard, Netherlands and Croatia.  I'll let the reader decide what to make of it though.

http://img377.imageshack.us/my.php?image=yooneweverythingfk0.jpg

If you've been reading my posts as of lately you can begin to get the feel that yoonew's predictions are not always a lock.  This can be a blessing in disguise though.  Anyone playing the underdogs on a value play only has been making a killing.  With all this said in mind I'm still sticking with the favorites on this one.  Netherlands.  They've scored nine goals in tournament play so far.  Yoonew futures contracts for Netherlands were trading at 1560 and Russian contracts were trading at 330.  Lets see if we get another Turkish like upset.

Here's how I see this all unfolding.

Quarter Finals

Portugal-Germany June 19th

Germany's got a few things going against them going into this match. A calf injury by their top player, Lukas Podolski, and the ejection of their head coach for the match. The Germans have a clear advantage when it comes to venue. Basel Switzerland where the game is being played is on the cusp of Germany. Depending on the ability of the German fans to swing momentum there is a likely hood of this being a lurking factor in favor of the Germans. I think the offense of Portugal if Ronaldo comes through will blast through this German defense. The Portuguese team is at a big size disadvantage with the average height of the Portuguese team being 4 inches less than the German's average height. I don't know much about soccer or the effects of height on it but I'm thinking that height comes in handy with headers. Overall I'm sticking with Portugal on this one 2-1.

Croatia-Turkey June 20th

Alright Turkey you managed to have an awesome run so far in tournament play and give us the greatest game of the tournament but your done son. Turkey has been lucky up until this point and yes I mean lucky. Turkey is just not capable of beating this Croatian team. The icing on the cake is the top keeper for Turkey, Volkan Demirel , is banned from the next two games. My prediction Croatia 32-2. If you wonder how Turkey scores two goals I'm predicting that the Croats will be so tired from cheering that Turkey sneaks two in by the keeper.

Netherlands -Russia June 21

Another no brainer for me here. Russia's good, don't get me wrong, they proved that in their unrelentlessness physical dominance against the Swedes. But this Netherlands team is dirty and I mean DIRTY. You don't go 3-0 in group play with a +8 goal differential without having a great team, even if your bracket is a little soft. The Dutch have also been packing these stadiums to the brim in orange and I don't see that letting up at all. The Netherlands are taking this game 3-1. Also Netherlands contracts at yoonew.com are a pick up across the board I think there all undervalued.


Spain-Italy June 22

This is going to be the best matchup of the semi finals. Quote me now. I wanna see everyone going back and reading my predictions after they witness the jaw dropping amazingness that will be this game. I want this replayed more times on espn than that new Nike commercial they keep jamming down our throats. Though it is a really good commercial, I've just been totally desensitized to it. Spain has never beat Italy in 88 years in matchup play. That's huge and for some reason I think that's gonna weigh in deep on this Spanish team. I see 2-1 victory for Spain with the last goal for the Spanish coming in the last ten minutes of play. I'm so sure in my prediction that I advise all of you to only watch the last ten minutes of this game. Luca Toni scores the only Italian goal on a header. The Spanish finally break this 88 yr Italian streak.


Semi Finals

Portugal-Croatia

I love Portugal and the grace of their offense but I have to give this win to Croatia. There a dominant team whose talented at every level. I expect to see a high scoring game though. Croatia has a better goal differential in a harder group. I think that speaks volumes about this Croatian team. 2-1 Croatia. Ronaldo Scores off a corner kick for Portugal.

Spain-Netherlands

This will be the much more interesting semi final match I predict. Spain and Netherlands have both been on killing sprees going 3-0 in Group play. Netherlands will have the obvious fan advantage as they will throughout every match they play. Both teams are slicing through opponents but the Netherlands has yet to have any Injuries and i smell that as the fate of Spain. Also this Netherlands team just scores so much I can't see them not putting at least 2 in over this Spanish team. My prediction 3-2 Netherlands.

FINAL MATCHUP

Even though this won't matter for any of my contracts lets see how this plays off. Croatia verses the Netherlands. Croatia is good and has played what I feel better opponents to get to the finals but this Dutch team as I keep saying is good. Real good. I'm almost too bullish on Holland at this point. Croatia will take the lead early I feel but the Netherlands will Jsut do what they've done best keep punching goals in. Final score 2-1 Netherlands. Also I expect there to be a sea and I mean sea of orange in this stadium. So much I think Tropicana should sponsor it.

Russia dominated to a 2-0 run against the Swedes in a showing unseen by them in any of their previous matches.  Contracts for Russia on yoonew soared in excess of 200% for certain match ups while Swedish contracts which had previously been trading at high 300-400 range early on plummeted to nothing.  Tomorrows favorite according to Bet Fair is Portugal and contracts are trading almost neck and neck on yoonew according to their last price.  It's a game to be remembered either way. 

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Spain	2	2	0	0	6	2	+4	6
Sweden	2	1	0	1	3	2	+1	3
Russia	2	1	0	1	2	4	−2	3
Greece	2	0	0	2	0	3	−3	0

Image Courtesy of Wikipedia

  Today's matchup of interest falls on Sweden and Russia.  Sweden clinches a position in the next round as long as they can avoid defeat while Russia needs to secure a win to survive.  Russia has been playing weak in Euro Cup play starting the tournament with a 4-1 loss to Spain the group favorite and then marginally defeating Greece the group's weakest member.  Russia's ticket contracts on yoonew.com were trading last at 74.57 while Sweden's contracts were trading last at 290.49.  Germany's contracts expired upon elimination and Spain's contracts traded last at 1,616.44.  Overall predicitons lead me to feel a 1-0 victory for the Swedes.  

*Contract prices are indicative of the market value for a team to make the finals for the World Cup.  Therefore the more likely a team is to advance the higher their ticket price is.  This is clearly seen by the premium that tickets for Spain are trading at.  

Both of these teams are fighting for survival in this tournament while also praying for Romania's defeat. These teams are evenly matched so far within tournament play.  Betfairs predictions side with Italy over France at 13/8 and 9/5 respectively.  Yoonew.com's predictions tell the same story with Italy's contracts trading at around 457 last and France at 317.57 last.  Italy is a slight favorite but these teams are evenly match and will provide a good game with high stakes.

Today's matchups are exceptionally even.  Romania who has two draws within Euro 2008 play is facing off against the scoring behemoth of the Netherlands.  The Netherlands have the highest Goal differential in the entire tournament at +6 a force that shows the power of this Netherlands team.  Betfair has Romania ahead at 7/5 and Netherlands 2/1.  Yoonew.com places a Netherlands contract, which is a contract guaranteeing a ticket to the championship if Netherlands makes it, at 1,206.63 last and Romania last at 101.93.  Both however were down in intra day trading.