Or: Damn you, Pippo Inzaghi

Ok, let's get the bitterness out of the way right off the top:

• Milan's first goal was deflected in off Inzaghi's arm. In other words, handball. In other words, it should never have counted.
• The ref blew his whistle to end the game before stoppage time was up. So much for that little announcement, "There will be a minimum of three minutes' extra time." Or the fact that there'd been a substitution in stoppage time, which should have been even more time added on.
• And that was just the final straw in a game that featured some rather biased refereeing. How many 50/50 decisions went against Liverpool? (If I was really bitter, I would wonder how much Berlusconi paid the ref. But I'm not that bitter. Quite.)

I'm not really disappointed in the team, but I'm disappointed for them. I thought they did well to get as far as they did, and they were the better team for most of the match. They shut down Milan's midfield quite effectively -- which was the key to their game plan -- and they created way more chances on goal. The problem, as it's been so often this season, was that they couldn't convert any of those chances.

Rafa went with a 4-5-1 formation, which I didn't predict but I actually preferred. With the right players, it can actually be a much more attacking set-up than 4-4-2. But it depends a lot on having quality wingers. Liverpool had...Jermaine Pennant and Bolo Zenden. Yeah. They both worked hard, but Zenden doesn't have the legs to be a true winger, and Pennant, although he was helped out by Jankulovski having a nightmare of a game, needs to do some serious work on his crossing (seriously, please sit him down with a David Beckham highlight reel so that he can learn to put a dangerous ball into the box rather than hanging it up every time).

The other thing is you need somebody who's effective as a lone striker. Whereas in this game, on one side, we had Alessandro Nesta, reminding us that the list of hotshot Italian centre-halves does not begin and end with Fabio Cannavaro, and Paolo Maldini, who I've concluded is some kind of ageless creature who feeds on the blood of virgins (insert Kaka joke here). On the other, we had Dirk Kuyt. That's not even close. Again, he worked hard -- and even scored a late consolation -- but that's not enough over 90 minutes. Liverpool could badly use a top-class finisher, and they've been struggling to fill that role ever since Michael Owen left.

Normally Steven Gerrard is the player you expect to pop up with the game-winning goals, and he had a few decent chances yesterday -- particularly that one where he was in alone on Dida and didn't place the ball quite right to squeeze it past the keeper, which I'm sure he'll be kicking himself over for months. It just wasn't happening.

Whereas Milan, who only had a handful of shots, got a couple of lucky breaks and made the most of them. Their first goal was from a free kick in a dangerous position, but I'm confident that Pepe Reina would have saved it if not for the deflection. The second came late in the game, with Liverpool throwing everybody forward for an equalizer, as Kaka, freed up by Javier Mascherano being subbed off, slipped the ball through the Liverpool defence to Inzaghi -- who was onside for possibly the first time in his entire life -- to kill the game off. (oh, that, and a nice display of time-wasting after he took a ball to the stomach. Suck it up, you rat-faced little bastard.)

I've seen some post-game criticism of Rafa's tactics, but I think he got it right, for the most part. Playing five across midfield meant that they were able to close Milan down quickly and not give them time to play, while also freeing up Gerrard, although he couldn't reproduce his Istanbul heroics this time around. Rafa probably could have made his substitutions a bit earlier (and I'm still confused by Arbeloa on for Finnan, frankly), but overall he did the best he could with somewhat limited resources -- i.e., Bolo Zenden. I thought Harry Kewell looked like a better option when he came on, but starting him would have been a big gamble. The result just highlights the areas they have to invest in over the summer.

I would dearly love to ignore all the hoo-ha about this game being a rematch of the 2005 final, but let's be realistic. Even leaving aside the hype, both teams are unquestionably going to be influenced by the result that night, with both sides hoping to learn from their mistakes then.

So I'll say the same things now as everyone did two years ago: I expect it to be a cagey, low-scoring game, with both teams being very cautious. That all goes out the window if Milan score in the first two minutes again, but Liverpool's defence looks stronger this year, simply by virtue of the fact that it no longer includes Djimi Traore. (I kid, but actually I'm not sure who Liverpool should be starting at left-back; probably Jon Arne Riise, although that depends on whether they've got anyone else fit to play on the left of midfield.) And Milan's strike force looks weaker, after the departures of Crespo and Shevchenko.

Key matchups

• Pippo Inzaghi vs. the Liverpool back line: Carlo Ancelotti's biggest selection dilemma is probably whether to pick Inzaghi or Alberto Gilardino to start up front. I'm leaning towards Inzaghi, because he's got more experience and is a better finisher than Gila. But the Liverpool offside trap is a thing of beauty and a joy forever, and I want to Jamie Carragher swatting Pippo around like a fly.
• Kaka vs. Mascherano: You can't neglect the rest of their midfield, but containing Kaka is obviously vital if you want to contain Milan. United didn't have the resources to do this -- in fact, they didn't even try, if you believe Sir Alex's claim that they decided not to man-mark him -- and it cost them dearly. Liverpool won't make the same mistake, and in Javier Mascherano they have the right man for the job. In 2005, bringing on Didi Hamann at halftime to anchor the midfield completely changed the game for Liverpool, and Mascherano, with the experience of playing against Kaka for Argentina, will be expected to do the same here.
• Gerrard vs. Gattuso: Captain Fantastic vs. the man he's referred to as a kitten. Both players are the heart of their team and will run themselves into the ground to win, although they play a very different style. Gattuso is a terrier, snapping at the ankles of opponents, while Gerrard is...well, Animal from the Muppets is still the best analogy I've managed to come up with. Plus the ability to score 30-yard screamers and send commentators into hysterics. RAAAAAAAAAAR.
• Alonso vs. Pirlo: Both deep-lying playmakers, so they probably won't spend a lot of the game going up against each other directly. But in both cases, their ability to find space and pick out a teammate with a pass is vital to how their team performs. Alonso has been dropped for a few games recently, including the second leg of the semi-final, but I expect him to be back against Milan, where retaining possession is more crucial than it was against Chelsea.
• Liverpool's toothless strikers vs. Milan's ageless defence: I really have no idea who's going to start up front for Liverpool, or whether they'll be able to unlock the Italians' defence. Let's face it, Paolo Maldini is hardly going to be panicked by the sight of Peter Crouch, no matter how discombobulating his robot dance may be. I kind of lean towards starting Dirk Kuyt, who may not have much pace but always works hard and may be able to wear them out. Crouch is probably their best finisher, though -- and in that department, they're no worse off than they were in 2005, with Baros and Cisse playing like headless chickens in front of goal.
• Reina vs. Dida: Pepe Reina has had some shaky moments for Liverpool, particularly earlier in the year, but compared to Dida, he's a model of consistency. He's become much more confident and dependable over the course of the season, and if the game comes down to penalties again, having Reina between the posts will be a massive advantage for Liverpool, after his performances in the semi-final and in the FA Cup final last year.

Injury news
Harry Kewell has apparently recovered from his long-standing injury problems just in time for Liverpool, so he may get the chance to limp off before halftime in yet another cup final. (It's okay, Harry, I still like you, especially now that you've chopped off that idiotic ponytail.) Bolo Zenden is a doubt, having knacked his ankle in training, which is probably bad news for Rafa but good news as far as I'm concerned.

For Milan, Paolo Maldini and his 138-year-old knees are expected to be fit enough to partner Alessandro Nesta in the centre of defence, although I suspect that he may not be able to last the full 90 minutes. Milan rested their entire first team for their Serie A game this weekend, so they should be fresh, but then Liverpool have essentially been resting for the past three weeks, judging by their performances against Fulham et al.

Team predictions
Attempting to predict Rafa's lineups is always a crapshot, but nevertheless...

• Milan: Dida; Oddo, Nesta, Maldini, Jankulovski; Pirlo, Gattuso; Ambrosini, Kaka, Seedorf; Inzaghi
• Liverpool: Reina; Finnan, Carragher, Agger, Arbeloa; Gerrard, Alonso, Mascherano, Riise; Crouch, Kuyt

I'm not even going to try to predict the outcome, and I'm trying not to be either too pessimistic or too optimistic here. That game in Istanbul is what made me fall in love with the team in the first place -- not really the fact that they won, but more the way that they won it. Liverpool never seem to do things the easy way, and I expect Athens to be another emotional rollercoaster.

I've only watched Javier Mascherano play a few games for Liverpool so far, but I have to ask: What the hell is wrong with West Ham? How did they not realize what they had?

I remember when I first heard that he and Carlos Tevez were joining the Hammers, with everybody thinking it was too good to be true. The most obvious hitch was the supposedly dodgy transfer deal. And on top of that, if these guys were really so great, why would they want to go to a club like West Ham (who are not exactly part of the European elite)?

And for the first half of the season, our suspicions seemed to be proved right. The more details that came out about the terms of the deal, the worse it sounded; both players were having trouble breaking into the squad, and when they did get into the team, they weren't exactly setting the world on fire. West Ham went into a nosedive in the Premiership table, and signing the two Argentines seemed to have been the catalyst that made the team disintegrate.

Nevertheless, Rafa Benitez, still saw something in Mascherano and wanted to bring him to Liverpool. I thought it was idiotic, because not only had Mascherano flopped at West Ham, but Liverpool already had three good centre midfielders in Gerrard, Alonso and Sissoko, so I figured they didn't need him. Surely there were better players to spend their limited transfer funds on?

Rafa, however, is obviously a lot smarter than me (or Alan Pardew, or Alan Curbishley), because Mascherano has already proved his quality over the past month. He's been snapping into tackles all over the pitch, and he's a decent passer too -- so unlike Sissoko, he doesn't give the ball away immediately after he's won it. I think I like the combination of Mascherano and Alonso in the middle best so far -- Mascherano sitting deep and shielding the back line should let Xabi go forward and get involved in the attack more. But I'd also like to see how he'd work with Gerrard, because I think Mascherano would provide the defensive stability to balance him out. (Sissoko, although he's also good at breaking up attacks, tends to play too far up the pitch to be effective with Gerrard, I think.)

So he's slotted in well at Liverpool in a relatively short time. But why couldn't he do it at West Ham? I realize it takes a while to adjust to a new league, but it's hard to do that if you never even get to play.