Or: Damn you, Pippo Inzaghi

Ok, let's get the bitterness out of the way right off the top:

• Milan's first goal was deflected in off Inzaghi's arm. In other words, handball. In other words, it should never have counted.
• The ref blew his whistle to end the game before stoppage time was up. So much for that little announcement, "There will be a minimum of three minutes' extra time." Or the fact that there'd been a substitution in stoppage time, which should have been even more time added on.
• And that was just the final straw in a game that featured some rather biased refereeing. How many 50/50 decisions went against Liverpool? (If I was really bitter, I would wonder how much Berlusconi paid the ref. But I'm not that bitter. Quite.)

I'm not really disappointed in the team, but I'm disappointed for them. I thought they did well to get as far as they did, and they were the better team for most of the match. They shut down Milan's midfield quite effectively -- which was the key to their game plan -- and they created way more chances on goal. The problem, as it's been so often this season, was that they couldn't convert any of those chances.

Rafa went with a 4-5-1 formation, which I didn't predict but I actually preferred. With the right players, it can actually be a much more attacking set-up than 4-4-2. But it depends a lot on having quality wingers. Liverpool had...Jermaine Pennant and Bolo Zenden. Yeah. They both worked hard, but Zenden doesn't have the legs to be a true winger, and Pennant, although he was helped out by Jankulovski having a nightmare of a game, needs to do some serious work on his crossing (seriously, please sit him down with a David Beckham highlight reel so that he can learn to put a dangerous ball into the box rather than hanging it up every time).

The other thing is you need somebody who's effective as a lone striker. Whereas in this game, on one side, we had Alessandro Nesta, reminding us that the list of hotshot Italian centre-halves does not begin and end with Fabio Cannavaro, and Paolo Maldini, who I've concluded is some kind of ageless creature who feeds on the blood of virgins (insert Kaka joke here). On the other, we had Dirk Kuyt. That's not even close. Again, he worked hard -- and even scored a late consolation -- but that's not enough over 90 minutes. Liverpool could badly use a top-class finisher, and they've been struggling to fill that role ever since Michael Owen left.

Normally Steven Gerrard is the player you expect to pop up with the game-winning goals, and he had a few decent chances yesterday -- particularly that one where he was in alone on Dida and didn't place the ball quite right to squeeze it past the keeper, which I'm sure he'll be kicking himself over for months. It just wasn't happening.

Whereas Milan, who only had a handful of shots, got a couple of lucky breaks and made the most of them. Their first goal was from a free kick in a dangerous position, but I'm confident that Pepe Reina would have saved it if not for the deflection. The second came late in the game, with Liverpool throwing everybody forward for an equalizer, as Kaka, freed up by Javier Mascherano being subbed off, slipped the ball through the Liverpool defence to Inzaghi -- who was onside for possibly the first time in his entire life -- to kill the game off. (oh, that, and a nice display of time-wasting after he took a ball to the stomach. Suck it up, you rat-faced little bastard.)

I've seen some post-game criticism of Rafa's tactics, but I think he got it right, for the most part. Playing five across midfield meant that they were able to close Milan down quickly and not give them time to play, while also freeing up Gerrard, although he couldn't reproduce his Istanbul heroics this time around. Rafa probably could have made his substitutions a bit earlier (and I'm still confused by Arbeloa on for Finnan, frankly), but overall he did the best he could with somewhat limited resources -- i.e., Bolo Zenden. I thought Harry Kewell looked like a better option when he came on, but starting him would have been a big gamble. The result just highlights the areas they have to invest in over the summer.

I would dearly love to ignore all the hoo-ha about this game being a rematch of the 2005 final, but let's be realistic. Even leaving aside the hype, both teams are unquestionably going to be influenced by the result that night, with both sides hoping to learn from their mistakes then.

So I'll say the same things now as everyone did two years ago: I expect it to be a cagey, low-scoring game, with both teams being very cautious. That all goes out the window if Milan score in the first two minutes again, but Liverpool's defence looks stronger this year, simply by virtue of the fact that it no longer includes Djimi Traore. (I kid, but actually I'm not sure who Liverpool should be starting at left-back; probably Jon Arne Riise, although that depends on whether they've got anyone else fit to play on the left of midfield.) And Milan's strike force looks weaker, after the departures of Crespo and Shevchenko.

Key matchups

• Pippo Inzaghi vs. the Liverpool back line: Carlo Ancelotti's biggest selection dilemma is probably whether to pick Inzaghi or Alberto Gilardino to start up front. I'm leaning towards Inzaghi, because he's got more experience and is a better finisher than Gila. But the Liverpool offside trap is a thing of beauty and a joy forever, and I want to Jamie Carragher swatting Pippo around like a fly.
• Kaka vs. Mascherano: You can't neglect the rest of their midfield, but containing Kaka is obviously vital if you want to contain Milan. United didn't have the resources to do this -- in fact, they didn't even try, if you believe Sir Alex's claim that they decided not to man-mark him -- and it cost them dearly. Liverpool won't make the same mistake, and in Javier Mascherano they have the right man for the job. In 2005, bringing on Didi Hamann at halftime to anchor the midfield completely changed the game for Liverpool, and Mascherano, with the experience of playing against Kaka for Argentina, will be expected to do the same here.
• Gerrard vs. Gattuso: Captain Fantastic vs. the man he's referred to as a kitten. Both players are the heart of their team and will run themselves into the ground to win, although they play a very different style. Gattuso is a terrier, snapping at the ankles of opponents, while Gerrard is...well, Animal from the Muppets is still the best analogy I've managed to come up with. Plus the ability to score 30-yard screamers and send commentators into hysterics. RAAAAAAAAAAR.
• Alonso vs. Pirlo: Both deep-lying playmakers, so they probably won't spend a lot of the game going up against each other directly. But in both cases, their ability to find space and pick out a teammate with a pass is vital to how their team performs. Alonso has been dropped for a few games recently, including the second leg of the semi-final, but I expect him to be back against Milan, where retaining possession is more crucial than it was against Chelsea.
• Liverpool's toothless strikers vs. Milan's ageless defence: I really have no idea who's going to start up front for Liverpool, or whether they'll be able to unlock the Italians' defence. Let's face it, Paolo Maldini is hardly going to be panicked by the sight of Peter Crouch, no matter how discombobulating his robot dance may be. I kind of lean towards starting Dirk Kuyt, who may not have much pace but always works hard and may be able to wear them out. Crouch is probably their best finisher, though -- and in that department, they're no worse off than they were in 2005, with Baros and Cisse playing like headless chickens in front of goal.
• Reina vs. Dida: Pepe Reina has had some shaky moments for Liverpool, particularly earlier in the year, but compared to Dida, he's a model of consistency. He's become much more confident and dependable over the course of the season, and if the game comes down to penalties again, having Reina between the posts will be a massive advantage for Liverpool, after his performances in the semi-final and in the FA Cup final last year.

Injury news
Harry Kewell has apparently recovered from his long-standing injury problems just in time for Liverpool, so he may get the chance to limp off before halftime in yet another cup final. (It's okay, Harry, I still like you, especially now that you've chopped off that idiotic ponytail.) Bolo Zenden is a doubt, having knacked his ankle in training, which is probably bad news for Rafa but good news as far as I'm concerned.

For Milan, Paolo Maldini and his 138-year-old knees are expected to be fit enough to partner Alessandro Nesta in the centre of defence, although I suspect that he may not be able to last the full 90 minutes. Milan rested their entire first team for their Serie A game this weekend, so they should be fresh, but then Liverpool have essentially been resting for the past three weeks, judging by their performances against Fulham et al.

Team predictions
Attempting to predict Rafa's lineups is always a crapshot, but nevertheless...

• Milan: Dida; Oddo, Nesta, Maldini, Jankulovski; Pirlo, Gattuso; Ambrosini, Kaka, Seedorf; Inzaghi
• Liverpool: Reina; Finnan, Carragher, Agger, Arbeloa; Gerrard, Alonso, Mascherano, Riise; Crouch, Kuyt

I'm not even going to try to predict the outcome, and I'm trying not to be either too pessimistic or too optimistic here. That game in Istanbul is what made me fall in love with the team in the first place -- not really the fact that they won, but more the way that they won it. Liverpool never seem to do things the easy way, and I expect Athens to be another emotional rollercoaster.

Both teams have it all to play for at the San Siro, after a whirlwind first leg.

Milan lined up as expected, although with the terminally ineffective Gilardino instead of Inzaghi at the top of the Christmas tree. United were in the predicted 4-2-3-1, but with Wayne Rooney leading the line in place of Alan Smith. With Patrice Evra fit to start, Darren Fletcher moved into midfield, as the Gattuso to Michael Carrick's Pirlo. (I know, that sounds like a ridiculous comparison. And it's true that Carrick faded in and out of the game, but Fletcher -- although he didn't manage to stifle Kaka -- played his little cotton socks off, bless him.)

United got off to a good start, imposing lots of pressure on Milan -- and actually putting in some decent corners, something that shouldn't be notable but is. And it paid off with an early goal as Dida flapped at Cristiano Ronaldo's header from Giggs' corner, but managed only to push it into his own net. The first 15 minutes or so were all United, but Milan worked themselves into the game. United still looked dangerous when they got the chance to attack with speed, but Milan weren't panicking, just patiently shutting them down.

Milan's equalizer came from Kaka, who got away from Carrick; the defenders didn't close him down quickly enough, and he finished with a perfectly placed shot past Van der Sar. Fifteen minutes later it was Kaka again, controlling the ball well to slip past the defenders into the box. But United looked like the Keystone Kops out there -- Heinze was trying to catch Kaka, Evra came over to cover but body-checked his own player out of the way instead, leaving Kaka with a clear shot on goal.

Kaka easily won the battle of the young superstars between him and Ronaldo -- who was eager to run at the Milan defence and show off his tricks, but not so eager to actually pass the damned ball before two or three players closed him down and took it away. Wayne Rooney, though, made a case for himself with two beautifully taken goals that gave United the lead.

Milan had lost Paolo Maldini at halftime, but were still looking much the better side. Then, probably more detrimental, Gattuso went off injured not long afterwards, and that let United back into the game. Just when I was starting to think they should substitute Paul Scholes -- because he wasn't doing much other than lunging at people and practically begging to be booked -- he flipped the ball up over the Milan defence for Rooney chest down and slot past Dida. Rooney's second goal came in stoppage time, as Giggs broke from the halfway line and played a through ball for him to run on to, and he hammered it past Dida at the near post. It was a great finish but once again some dodgy keeping from Dida, who had made a couple of excellent saves but gave him way too much space to aim at here.

That third goal gives United a lifeline for the second leg, but I think the tie is still too close to call. Although United have the lead, Milan have those two away goals, which means a 1-0 victory at the San Siro would be enough to send them through. But they'll regret not killing United off when they had the chance -- they may have thought it was all over at 2-1, but then they took their foot off the gas and paid for it.

The issue for United in Italy will be patching up their defence again. Evra was booked on Tuesday, so he'll miss the next leg. They've got to hope that Ferdinand and/or Neville is back fit by then, or else start Fletcher at right-back. (On the other hand, it's not all bad, because it gives them an excuse to move Heinze back to the left; I'm really not comfortable with him in the centre.) They also could use at least one goal to increase the pressure on Milan. And they absolutely have to figure out how to deal with Kaka, although I have no suggestions for that other than maybe attaching lead weights to his ankles.

As for Milan, I think they shouldn't rely too much on the Brazilian choirboy -- they need to find goals from their strikers too, though that's not likely with Gilardino faffing around up front. And they also need to remember that games last 90 mintes, not 45. You'd think they would have learned that in Istanbul, but apparently not.