Or: Damn you, Pippo Inzaghi

Ok, let's get the bitterness out of the way right off the top:

• Milan's first goal was deflected in off Inzaghi's arm. In other words, handball. In other words, it should never have counted.
• The ref blew his whistle to end the game before stoppage time was up. So much for that little announcement, "There will be a minimum of three minutes' extra time." Or the fact that there'd been a substitution in stoppage time, which should have been even more time added on.
• And that was just the final straw in a game that featured some rather biased refereeing. How many 50/50 decisions went against Liverpool? (If I was really bitter, I would wonder how much Berlusconi paid the ref. But I'm not that bitter. Quite.)

I'm not really disappointed in the team, but I'm disappointed for them. I thought they did well to get as far as they did, and they were the better team for most of the match. They shut down Milan's midfield quite effectively -- which was the key to their game plan -- and they created way more chances on goal. The problem, as it's been so often this season, was that they couldn't convert any of those chances.

Rafa went with a 4-5-1 formation, which I didn't predict but I actually preferred. With the right players, it can actually be a much more attacking set-up than 4-4-2. But it depends a lot on having quality wingers. Liverpool had...Jermaine Pennant and Bolo Zenden. Yeah. They both worked hard, but Zenden doesn't have the legs to be a true winger, and Pennant, although he was helped out by Jankulovski having a nightmare of a game, needs to do some serious work on his crossing (seriously, please sit him down with a David Beckham highlight reel so that he can learn to put a dangerous ball into the box rather than hanging it up every time).

The other thing is you need somebody who's effective as a lone striker. Whereas in this game, on one side, we had Alessandro Nesta, reminding us that the list of hotshot Italian centre-halves does not begin and end with Fabio Cannavaro, and Paolo Maldini, who I've concluded is some kind of ageless creature who feeds on the blood of virgins (insert Kaka joke here). On the other, we had Dirk Kuyt. That's not even close. Again, he worked hard -- and even scored a late consolation -- but that's not enough over 90 minutes. Liverpool could badly use a top-class finisher, and they've been struggling to fill that role ever since Michael Owen left.

Normally Steven Gerrard is the player you expect to pop up with the game-winning goals, and he had a few decent chances yesterday -- particularly that one where he was in alone on Dida and didn't place the ball quite right to squeeze it past the keeper, which I'm sure he'll be kicking himself over for months. It just wasn't happening.

Whereas Milan, who only had a handful of shots, got a couple of lucky breaks and made the most of them. Their first goal was from a free kick in a dangerous position, but I'm confident that Pepe Reina would have saved it if not for the deflection. The second came late in the game, with Liverpool throwing everybody forward for an equalizer, as Kaka, freed up by Javier Mascherano being subbed off, slipped the ball through the Liverpool defence to Inzaghi -- who was onside for possibly the first time in his entire life -- to kill the game off. (oh, that, and a nice display of time-wasting after he took a ball to the stomach. Suck it up, you rat-faced little bastard.)

I've seen some post-game criticism of Rafa's tactics, but I think he got it right, for the most part. Playing five across midfield meant that they were able to close Milan down quickly and not give them time to play, while also freeing up Gerrard, although he couldn't reproduce his Istanbul heroics this time around. Rafa probably could have made his substitutions a bit earlier (and I'm still confused by Arbeloa on for Finnan, frankly), but overall he did the best he could with somewhat limited resources -- i.e., Bolo Zenden. I thought Harry Kewell looked like a better option when he came on, but starting him would have been a big gamble. The result just highlights the areas they have to invest in over the summer.

I would dearly love to ignore all the hoo-ha about this game being a rematch of the 2005 final, but let's be realistic. Even leaving aside the hype, both teams are unquestionably going to be influenced by the result that night, with both sides hoping to learn from their mistakes then.

So I'll say the same things now as everyone did two years ago: I expect it to be a cagey, low-scoring game, with both teams being very cautious. That all goes out the window if Milan score in the first two minutes again, but Liverpool's defence looks stronger this year, simply by virtue of the fact that it no longer includes Djimi Traore. (I kid, but actually I'm not sure who Liverpool should be starting at left-back; probably Jon Arne Riise, although that depends on whether they've got anyone else fit to play on the left of midfield.) And Milan's strike force looks weaker, after the departures of Crespo and Shevchenko.

Key matchups

• Pippo Inzaghi vs. the Liverpool back line: Carlo Ancelotti's biggest selection dilemma is probably whether to pick Inzaghi or Alberto Gilardino to start up front. I'm leaning towards Inzaghi, because he's got more experience and is a better finisher than Gila. But the Liverpool offside trap is a thing of beauty and a joy forever, and I want to Jamie Carragher swatting Pippo around like a fly.
• Kaka vs. Mascherano: You can't neglect the rest of their midfield, but containing Kaka is obviously vital if you want to contain Milan. United didn't have the resources to do this -- in fact, they didn't even try, if you believe Sir Alex's claim that they decided not to man-mark him -- and it cost them dearly. Liverpool won't make the same mistake, and in Javier Mascherano they have the right man for the job. In 2005, bringing on Didi Hamann at halftime to anchor the midfield completely changed the game for Liverpool, and Mascherano, with the experience of playing against Kaka for Argentina, will be expected to do the same here.
• Gerrard vs. Gattuso: Captain Fantastic vs. the man he's referred to as a kitten. Both players are the heart of their team and will run themselves into the ground to win, although they play a very different style. Gattuso is a terrier, snapping at the ankles of opponents, while Gerrard is...well, Animal from the Muppets is still the best analogy I've managed to come up with. Plus the ability to score 30-yard screamers and send commentators into hysterics. RAAAAAAAAAAR.
• Alonso vs. Pirlo: Both deep-lying playmakers, so they probably won't spend a lot of the game going up against each other directly. But in both cases, their ability to find space and pick out a teammate with a pass is vital to how their team performs. Alonso has been dropped for a few games recently, including the second leg of the semi-final, but I expect him to be back against Milan, where retaining possession is more crucial than it was against Chelsea.
• Liverpool's toothless strikers vs. Milan's ageless defence: I really have no idea who's going to start up front for Liverpool, or whether they'll be able to unlock the Italians' defence. Let's face it, Paolo Maldini is hardly going to be panicked by the sight of Peter Crouch, no matter how discombobulating his robot dance may be. I kind of lean towards starting Dirk Kuyt, who may not have much pace but always works hard and may be able to wear them out. Crouch is probably their best finisher, though -- and in that department, they're no worse off than they were in 2005, with Baros and Cisse playing like headless chickens in front of goal.
• Reina vs. Dida: Pepe Reina has had some shaky moments for Liverpool, particularly earlier in the year, but compared to Dida, he's a model of consistency. He's become much more confident and dependable over the course of the season, and if the game comes down to penalties again, having Reina between the posts will be a massive advantage for Liverpool, after his performances in the semi-final and in the FA Cup final last year.

Injury news
Harry Kewell has apparently recovered from his long-standing injury problems just in time for Liverpool, so he may get the chance to limp off before halftime in yet another cup final. (It's okay, Harry, I still like you, especially now that you've chopped off that idiotic ponytail.) Bolo Zenden is a doubt, having knacked his ankle in training, which is probably bad news for Rafa but good news as far as I'm concerned.

For Milan, Paolo Maldini and his 138-year-old knees are expected to be fit enough to partner Alessandro Nesta in the centre of defence, although I suspect that he may not be able to last the full 90 minutes. Milan rested their entire first team for their Serie A game this weekend, so they should be fresh, but then Liverpool have essentially been resting for the past three weeks, judging by their performances against Fulham et al.

Team predictions
Attempting to predict Rafa's lineups is always a crapshot, but nevertheless...

• Milan: Dida; Oddo, Nesta, Maldini, Jankulovski; Pirlo, Gattuso; Ambrosini, Kaka, Seedorf; Inzaghi
• Liverpool: Reina; Finnan, Carragher, Agger, Arbeloa; Gerrard, Alonso, Mascherano, Riise; Crouch, Kuyt

I'm not even going to try to predict the outcome, and I'm trying not to be either too pessimistic or too optimistic here. That game in Istanbul is what made me fall in love with the team in the first place -- not really the fact that they won, but more the way that they won it. Liverpool never seem to do things the easy way, and I expect Athens to be another emotional rollercoaster.

I've only watched Javier Mascherano play a few games for Liverpool so far, but I have to ask: What the hell is wrong with West Ham? How did they not realize what they had?

I remember when I first heard that he and Carlos Tevez were joining the Hammers, with everybody thinking it was too good to be true. The most obvious hitch was the supposedly dodgy transfer deal. And on top of that, if these guys were really so great, why would they want to go to a club like West Ham (who are not exactly part of the European elite)?

And for the first half of the season, our suspicions seemed to be proved right. The more details that came out about the terms of the deal, the worse it sounded; both players were having trouble breaking into the squad, and when they did get into the team, they weren't exactly setting the world on fire. West Ham went into a nosedive in the Premiership table, and signing the two Argentines seemed to have been the catalyst that made the team disintegrate.

Nevertheless, Rafa Benitez, still saw something in Mascherano and wanted to bring him to Liverpool. I thought it was idiotic, because not only had Mascherano flopped at West Ham, but Liverpool already had three good centre midfielders in Gerrard, Alonso and Sissoko, so I figured they didn't need him. Surely there were better players to spend their limited transfer funds on?

Rafa, however, is obviously a lot smarter than me (or Alan Pardew, or Alan Curbishley), because Mascherano has already proved his quality over the past month. He's been snapping into tackles all over the pitch, and he's a decent passer too -- so unlike Sissoko, he doesn't give the ball away immediately after he's won it. I think I like the combination of Mascherano and Alonso in the middle best so far -- Mascherano sitting deep and shielding the back line should let Xabi go forward and get involved in the attack more. But I'd also like to see how he'd work with Gerrard, because I think Mascherano would provide the defensive stability to balance him out. (Sissoko, although he's also good at breaking up attacks, tends to play too far up the pitch to be effective with Gerrard, I think.)

So he's slotted in well at Liverpool in a relatively short time. But why couldn't he do it at West Ham? I realize it takes a while to adjust to a new league, but it's hard to do that if you never even get to play.

Liverpool 0 - 1 Manchester United
John O'Shea's late goal robbed Liverpool of what would have been a well-deserved point and meant that United maintained their lead at the top of the table. The ironic bit is that O'Shea probably wouldn't have been on the pitch at all if Wayne Rooney hadn't had to be substituted after Jamie Carragher took a chunk out of his thigh with his studs.

It looked at that point as if the game was heading for the inevitable scoreless draw -- and even more so after Paul Scholes was sent off for taking a swing at Xabi Alonso in the 86th minute. But then Ryan Giggs won a free kick just outside the Liverpool box. Cristiano Ronaldo swung in a shot towards the near post, which Pepe Reina stopped but wasn't able to hold on to, and there was O'Shea to poke home the winning goal.

There's no doubt that United were lucky to win; they probably would have been happy with the draw. For 90 minutes Liverpool had done everything right except put the ball in the net (actually, that's not true: Craig Bellamy did once but it was correctly ruled out for offside). But the bottom line is that you can't win if you don't score.

Liverpool mustered 15 shots on goal to United's 5, but not enough of those were really a goal threat, and they were also denied by a couple of excellent saves by Van der Sar. I was surprised that they took Bellamy off so early, because he'd been terrorizing Nemanja Vidic all game, and although the end product hadn't materialized, he still looked the most likely to score. At the opposite end of the pitch, Liverpool's other outstanding player was Jamie Carragher, who was a defensive rock as usual and threw himself into some vital blocks.

The game was really a battle of the two midfields, though: Liverpool closed United down quickly and pressed them high up the pitch rather than sitting back. They didn't let them get their passing game going -- Michael Carrick was particularly invisible; in fact, the first time I noticed him was when he got booked just before halftime -- and closed down the service to the strikers. But Liverpool struggled to settle into their attacking rhythm too, especially since Momo Sissoko seemed determined to give the ball away as often as possible.

Liverpool could find it demoralizing to have dominated this game and still lost, but I expect that Rafa will get them to focus on the positives: they've beaten Barcelona away and shut down United at home, so there's no reason why they can't similarly shut down Barcelona at Anfield on Tuesday. As for United, the main repercussion is that Paul Scholes' red card means he'll miss their next three matches, although he can still play in this week's Champions League game against Lille.

United will be aiming to pick up another three points and expand their lead over Chelsea, who don't play until later that day, to 12. Liverpool, on the other hand, have the opportunity to take themselves to within four points of second-place Chelsea if they win. And they would dearly love to stick a wrench into things for United.

In their last few games, Man United have eked out a 1-0 win against Lille in the Champions League and a nervy 2-1 victory over Fulham in the Premiership, plus a 3-2 defeat of Reading in the FA Cup that they made much more difficult than it should have been.

Liverpool may actually be in slightly better form at the moment: they're coming off a 4-0 drubbing of Sheffield United last weekend and a 2-1 away win over Barcelona a few days before, which may have been ugly but will certainly boost morale. Although it's also possible that they'll be distracted from Saturday's match by the upcoming second leg of the Champions League tie.

There's no question that Liverpool are very tough to beat at Anfield. They're currently on a string of 30 unbeaten games and 9 clean sheets at home. But if any team can do it, it's the Premiership leaders. Although they've been winning ugly in recent matches, I think they actually play better when they go in expecting a tough game -- where they give themselves problems is if they don't respect the opposition.

I expect Sir Alex to stick with his usual starting XI, with Henrik Larsson getting the nod ahead of Louis Saha so that they can make the most of him as long as he's here. The only question is whether Gary Neville will be on the bench, or if he'll be let out of the doghouse after his snit against Lille. For Liverpool, I've given up on trying to predict Rafa's lineups. The only thing you can predict is that he'll be unpredictable. Oh, and that Peter Crouch, who broke his nose in the Sheffield United match, is probably not going to play. Javier Mascherano and Arvalo Arbeloa have both made their debut for the Reds recently, and it's quite possible that one or both of them will feature on Saturday.

Honours have come out even in the last three meetings: Liverpool beat United 1-0 to knock them out of the FA Cup last year and drew with them 0-0 at Anfield in the Premiership, but United won 2-0 at Old Trafford this September, with goals from Paul Scholes and Rio Ferdinand.

My prediction: A 1-1 draw. Which means that neither team will really be happy.

Congratulations, Lille! You have been officially awarded the prestigious title of Pissy French Bitches 2007 (previous holders: Arsenal). They are now (a) blaming Man United for the over-crowding in the away end and (b) claiming that the game should be replayed because the referee let Giggs's goal stand. Both of which are bullshit.

Let's start with the free-kick. Yes, quite often the referee tells the teams that they have to wait for the whistle to restart play. He didn't do that this time. So when Lille spent too much time faffing around setting up their wall and Giggs took advantage of that, they have only themselves to blame. It's understandable that they feel hard done by, especially since they'd previously had a goal disallowed for a push on Vidic, but reacting as if they were going to take their ball and go home is needlessly petulant. It's the sort of behaviour I'd expect in my rec league (where, instead of referees, you call your own fouls and the teams award each other "spirit points" after the game; yeah, it works about as well as you'd expect), not from professional footballers.

As much attention as is being paid to this -- and when I finally saw the game, I was a little disappointed, because I was expecting a bigger kerfuffle -- the more serious issue is the trouble with the away fans. There are conflicting reports as to what exactly happened, but basically: there were too many fans in the away section of the stands, possibly because of people using fake tickets, possibly because of stadium staff not actually checking tickets and just letting people in. Some of those fans felt that they were in danger of being crushed and tried to climb out, and the security people dealt with this by spraying tear gas at the crowd. Which, as you can imagine, was a big help. The whole thing is just boggling to me. I mean, having to segregate away fans behind wire fences is boggling enough in the first place, considering that I'm used to North American stadiums where you can sit anywhere. I can accept that it's necessary in other places, but if you're going to do it, isn't the point to make it less dangerous for the fans, rather than more so?

Right, so: Massive organizational fuck-ups aside, what about the game? Well, United started brightly enough, with lots of possession, but not enough of it was in the final third of the pitch. Although they lined up in the 4-4-2 I was hoping for (hallelujah!), they were lacking the final ball to the strikers or players really driving forward from midfield. Lille did a good job of harrying them and closing down space in the midfield; I thought Jean Makoun was their best player and it's easy to see why United were interested in him. Gradually, though, it was looking as if the game would peter out into a scoreless draw, until Giggs stepped up to give United a crucial away goal. I hope they'll go all out to win the return leg at Old Trafford, because I thought a lot of their problem on Tuesday was due to their usual caution in European away games, despite the purportedly attacking formation.

Liverpool have beaten Chelsea in the Community Shield this year and the FA Cup semi-final last year, but they've been completely unable to overcome them in the league under Jose Mourinho. The record so far is five games, and five Chelsea wins -- the last one a 1-0 victory at Stamford Bridge in September, where the Blues prevailed despite Michael Ballack being sent off early in the second half.

But there couldn't be a much better time for Liverpool to try to end that string of defeats. Although both teams are currently struggling with injuries, Chelsea are arguably the worse off, with John Terry, Petr Cech, Khalid Boulahrouz and Joe Cole all out, as well as Claude Makalele suspended after picking up too many yellow cards. Liverpool have Luis Garcia and Momo Sissoko in the treatment room (and Harry Kewell in Australia recuperating or something), but they can still field close to their first-choice XI, while Chelsea have some key gaps, especially at the back.

Liverpool will also have the advantage of being at Anfield, and apart from the two losses to Arsenal last week, it's been a fortress this season -- they've only given up three goals at home all year. They'll also be trying to prove that they're definitely over getting knocked out of the cups so ignominiously.

Chelsea may have Petr Cech coming back from his head injury, although that's still up in the air at this point, and if he does play, it'll be in a protective helmet. And while having him in goal will probably boost the confidence of the makeshift defence in front of him, it's impossible to predict how Cech will cope in his first game back after such a serious injury.

The defence, I think, is going to be the key point for both sides. If I were Rafa Benitez, I'd probably start Craig Bellamy up front alongside Dirk Kuyt, get him to run at the defenders and goad them into making mistakes. The Liverpool back line have been decent this season but not outstanding, and they still look vulnerable to those long diagonal crosses. Dealing with those and containing Didier Drogba, who's been the Premiership's best striker so far, will be their biggest challenge.

Predicted teams
Liverpool: Reina; Finnan, Carragher, Hyypia, Riise; Pennant, Gerrard, Alonso, Aurelio; Bellamy, Kuyt. Subs: Dudek, Agger, Warnock, Gonzalez, Crouch.

Chelsea: Cech; Geremi, Ferreira, Carvalho, A. Cole; Essien, Lampard, Ballack, Robben; Shevchenko, Drogba. Subs: Hilario, Bridge, Mikel, Wright-Phillips, Kalou.

I'm not going to do an end-of-year wrapup, because as far as I'm concerned the end of the year is in May, no matter what the calendar says. But since we're at just about the halfway mark in the season -- I'm a couple days late; so sue me -- it's time to stop and see how things are shaking out so far.

For me, the most pleasant surprise is how well Manchester United are doing. A lot of the pre-season predictions I read had them finishing in third place or even lower. Certainly not four points clear of Chelsea at Christmas. Why are they doing so well? They've been relatively lucky with injuries, of course. After only bringing in Michael Carrick in the summer, a spate of injury problems would've been a major problem. But I think the fact that they've got a fairly settled squad has also worked to their advantage -- United went through their shakeup last year, with Roy Keane leaving and all that, whereas other teams like Liverpool and Arsenal are still adjusting to new players. The other thing that has helped United is Cristiano Ronaldo's current form. Love him or hate him, he's having a fantastic season. He's stopped being such a brat and is finally showing what he can really do on a football pitch.

Highlight: The 4-0 win over Bolton in October. Because it's Bolton, and I dislike them quite a lot, and it was a brilliant performance by United.
Lowlight: The 1-0 loss to Arsenal in September. Possibly the worst I've seen United play all season.

As for my other team: Liverpool are currently languishing in sixth place. They're only two points back of Arsenal in third, but still it's well below where I'd expected them to be by now. I (along with a lot of other people) thought that they'd be a stronger team than they were last year, particularly after making some decent pre-season signings. Yeah, not so much. There are a lot of theories about what's not working -- most of them related to Rafa's rotation policy -- but what it boils down to is that their away form is killing them.

Highlight: The 2-1 win over Chelsea in the Community Shield. Yes, all the way back in August. It's been all up and down since then.
Lowlight: The 3-0 derby loss to Everton. That one really hurt.

And the biggest shock of the season: Portsmouth, challenging for a Champions League place after narrowly avoiding relegation last year. The question is whether they can keep it up for another four months.

Aston Villa and Reading have also been outperforming so far, although Villa's form has been dropping lately as the Martin O'Neill Effect has worn off. Further down the table, Wigan and West Ham are the obvious underperformers -- neither team is doing nearly as well in their second season after promotion. Other than that, everyone is just about where you'd expect them to be, although it's good to see some how open things are this year, with just about every team capable of beating any other team on a given day. Not to mention a proper title race for a change.