Looking over the roster as it stands right now and I wanted to give some thoughts over the decisions that will factor into how the rest of the transfer window will follow.  My own personal thoughts as always, but I can take an educated guess or two:

1. Central Defensive Midfielder: The big key acquisition that is left to get.  Look at our roster as it stands right now and the only player capable of filling that role is Alex Song.  Not that he can't do the job, but that I think we'd rather he provide the support than be the primary option.  I've said the usual names being attached to Arsenal, so no sense in rehashing them.  The intriguing thing to consider is how soon Arsene fills that hole.  I think he saw from last year's example of Andrei Arshavin that bringing in a player sooner allows him to mesh with his teammates and helps the club hit the ground running.

2. Central Defense: As things stand we have six first-team CBs on our roster -- Gallas, Toure, Djourou, Vermaelen, Silvestre and Senderos.  Realistically, we should keep only three or four, as it's unlikely that any of them will settle for Carling Cup/FA Cup duties.  Two of those spots are spoken for by Djourou and Vermaelen.  It's more than likely that Silvestre will return to Ligue 1 and that Senderos will be sold to another team so that he can continue his career.  But I may be wrong in regards to Senderos, since the big questions hinge on what we will do with Gallas and Toure.  Gallas is out of contract at the end of this upcoming season -- and it's likely we'd then lose him for nothing.  Toure is in high demand by Manchester City and, given how they lost out on Terry, could make a major offer for him.  So who stays?  Who goes?

3. What to do with Eboue and Adebayor: Few players capture both the imagination and ire of Gooners everywhere like the Ivorian RB/RM and the Togolese ST.  On their best day, they are two of the best players on the roster.  And yet their moments of brilliance often go hand-in-hand with moments of stupidity or carelesness.  Here's the problem: should Bakary Sagna go down, there's no one better on the current roster to take over as RB than Eboue and, when motivated, Adebayor is one of the best young strikers in the world.  Unless there's a major offer for either one, they are likely to remain.  The question becomes: can they play a full season motivated and trouble free?

4. Loanees: Every season rolls around and a certain number of Arsenal players head for a year to ply their trade with other clubs.  This year is unlikely to change.  We've already heard of Derby County's interest in Mark Randall.  And it's likely that players such as Aaron Ramsey, Jay Simpson, Jay Emmanuel-Thomas and others could find themselves out for a year while they get first team football. Part of me thinks Lukasz Fabianski could benefit from a year of being the first-choice keeper, but that may be too much for Arsene.

5. South Africa 2010: I'm including this one even though it's not a player or anything of the sort.  Transfer dealings always take on a different life during World Cup years.  Rosters are hurt by the constant back and forth for players between club and country as the WC Qualifiers take on added significance.  Then they go from playing that season into a World Cup summer -- cutting short their rest.  Finally, the World Cup tends to have a knock-on effect on transfer prices for players who show their quality.  Just as we saw the price for Felipe Melo go from 7M euros to 25M euros thanks to a solid Confederations Cup, there's going to be players who double and triple in price next summer.  So, as bad as prices are this window, it might be smarter to not wait till next one.   

Allow me to dust the cobwebs off this corner of the Interwebs and remind folks that, yes, I am still alive and kicking.  Sorry for the long absence, but let's face it: unless you were an American rooting for Team USA or a South African rooting for the Bafana Bafana, there's been very little to get excited about in the world of football.

All of the recent news regarding Arsenal have been of us extending or signing to new deals our current players.  Kieran Gibbs, Theo Walcott, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey and Robin Van Persie have each signed on the dotted line that will keep them at Ashburton Grove for the foreseeable future.  And while such dealings often will lack the kind of attraction that a new transfer purchase will bring, let's face it: it's a good sign.  By putting pen to paper, the club ensures that their hard work in developing talent doesn't just walk away after preparing and training said talent for the upper levels of club football.  It also provides a level of stability that says to any prospective transfer target that this is a club looking ahead towards titles and glory -- do you want to be a part?  

Of course, the transfer talk has surrounded our failed attempt at landing former Fiorentina midfielder Felipe Melo.  Thanks to a really solid Confederations Cup performance, Melo's name grew and grew.  Arsenal were the first club mentioned as interested, but I was not surprised when others entered into the equation.  The rumored offer from Arsenal was Philippe Senderos, Emmanuel Eboue and 5 million pounds.  Juventus threw Marco Marchionni along with 21 million euros and managed to outbid us. 

Say what you will about a player who last year went for 7 million euros now being valuated at more than three times that price -- and how that's a reflection of today's transfer market.  The fact is that he was a real target that seemed unwilling to leave Serie A for the Premiership and found a way to move up in terms of club and in terms of pay packet without really having to pack his bags.  

Where does that leave Arsenal?  Still looking for that central midfield partner for Cesc Fabregas.  The names bandied about include St. Etienne's Blaise Matuidi, Marseille's Lorik Cana, Atletico Madrid's Ever Vanega, Sporting's Miguel Veloso and, by the time summer is over, I'm sure that ten more names will surface.  Arsene Wenger has made landing that central midfielder a priority and it looks like he's not necessarily going to shop where we all think he is.  

The other piece of news centers around Real Madrid and Barcelona either being interested or not interested in Cesc Fabregas and Andrei Arshavin.  Both players have come out and said they are not interested in moving, but given the crazy cash thrown all over the market, it's no surprise the media is throwing their names about without care for facts or truth.  

The good news is that, with players reporting back to training this week, such rumors will likely pass.  

Maybe.

Isn't it nice when a transfer happens quietly and quickly?

By now you're likely to have seen that Arsenal have completed the transfer for central/left defender Thomas Vermaelen.  The Belgian was the current Ajax defender and comes with a good reputation.  And outside of Vermaelen or his agent mentioning to everyone under the sun that he was moving to Arsenal, no other word was heard about it for weeks.  Definitely not from the club, who didn't even deign to have Arsene Wenger come out and deny it like they usually do.  Maybe they felt that, in a summer where everyone is focusing on the goings on at Madrid and where David Villa, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Sergio Aguero, Samuel Eto'o, David Silva and so many other talented forwards and midfielders could all end up elsewhere, that no one would really be interested in where one defender went.

But as anyone who saw Arsenal last season can attest to, a quality back line is mandatory to mount any sort of assault on the various competitions available.  

The question arises though: who will Vermaelen partner in central defense?  And that's where debate will start.

William Gallas had about as poor a run as you can have in the first half of last season and still find yourself in a team.  It's a testament to how he turned his form around post-December that he was not tossed on his butt when the transfer window started.  Then there's Kolo Toure actually handed a transfer request back in January, as he was fed up with being dropped from the Starting XI in favor of Gallas.  Not to mention that Kolo's feelings for Billy Gallas lie somewhere between"dislike" and "drop him in a volcano."  Oh and Manchester City has been hot on his trail and could offer up a rather impressive transfer fee for his services if they so want him.  And finally we got Mickael Silvestre....Good bye and good luck in France.

Meanwhile, with his loan spell at Milan ended, Phil Senderos is back in town.  And while I think he still has room to grow and become a quality defender -- was it so long ago he was an anchor for both the Arsenal and Swiss National Team defenses?  -- it's unlikely we'll hang onto him with Vermaelen and Djourou capable of filling his role.  

The rumor mill has already begun spinning tales of Senderos (and even Eboue) as part of a a cash + player deal with Fiorentina with Brazilian midfielder Felipe Melo.  Take a look at Melo as he plays with the Brazilian NT during the Confederations Cup and tell me you wouldn't want him.  I'm actually in favor for it for all involved.  Fiorentina needs depth to battle in both Serie A and the Champions League.  Hopefully that deal can be completed by the end of the Confederations Cup and we can unveil Cesc's new midfield partner.

I just hope we don't hear about it until the unveiling.

Rather than starting with the Arsenal part of this story, let's start elsewhere.  Madrid to be exact.

By now, everyone knows of the sums spent and the players purchased by Florentino Perez as he appears deadset on continuing on his trend of bringing the biggest names in football to El Santiago Bernabeu.  

56 million pounds for Kaka' on Monday.  80 million pounds for Cristiano Ronaldo on Thursday.  136 million pounds.   That's a quarter of a billion dollars that was just spent to unite the reigning and former World Players of the Year under the white flag of Madrid.  

And the rumors are that this is just the beginning of a massive spending spree that could see them bring in coveted striker David Villa, the even more coveted winger Franck Ribery, right back Maicon and midfielder Xabi Alonso before the window closes in August.  

Oh and they're also apparently targeting Gael Clichy to take over the LB spot once ruled by Roberto Carlos.  Let me get back to that in just a second.

To no one's surprise, this seems to have kickstarted an arms race across the top clubs in Europe.   Barcelona -- not content to sit on a team that was scoring for fun last season -- are now supposedly after Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Karim Benzema along with Nemanja Vidic while Daniel Alves wants them to bring Robinho over.  Manchester United, flush with the millions from the sale of Ronaldo, are also after Ribery and are eyeing Benzema and are making a move to bring Antonio Valencia over from Wigan.  Chelsea have set their sights on Alexandre Pato and/or Sergio "El Kun" Aguero to partner with Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka and there's rumors of their interest in Andrea Pirlo and Yuri Zhirkov.  Meanwhile AC Milan, having lost Kaka and looking apparently set to lose Pato, Pirlo and even Gattuso, have already made signing Edin Dzeko their top priority and the rumor mill has them after various starlets across Europe.    

And that's just Week 1 of the transfer window.  

Now, let's get to the part where all of this furor applies to Arsenal.

Obviously, we are going to have players with targets on their backs from these big game hunters in designer suits.  As I said above, Gael Clichy is already a rumored target of Perez to help solve some of the left back issues Real has had (namely that Gabriel Heinze is done and Royston Drenthe looks like a lost puppy out there).  Most of me does not want to see that happen.  I like Gael and think he still can improve and become a world-class LB.  That said, if Real offer something in the 25M pound range...could you turn it down?

Meanwhile the annual "Barcelona is Coming for Cesc Fabregas" rumors have already started.  These are a bit more annoying and ridiculous.  One, Cesc shoots them down everytime and says his future is tied to Arsene's continued tenure with the club.  Two, this season will be his first as team captain for the entire year and he's not likely to walk away from that.  Three, he's likely looking to break into the Spanish Starting XI for next year's World Cup and that's not going to happen if he's riding the pine as a supersub for Barca while Xavi and Iniesta continue to rule the midfield there.

Regardless of the realities though, expect to hear many of our players as potential targets for other clubs now even more.  

The other way it applies is in the crazy fee department.  Now traditionally Arsene Wenger has not been one to splash the cash around Europe for his purchases.  I mean, he just broke his own transfer record in January for Andrei Arshavin -- and that was 15M pounds or 1/5 what Real just paid for Ronaldo!  

But as we saw when Chelsea started snapping up players for 25M quid each, there's a knock-on effect throughout the market.  Players who might be worth 5-7M are valuated at 10M.  A rising starlet could cost you between 10-14M quid.  And an actual star...well, you're now talking over 20M easily.   And making things worse is that if Real continue to splash such crazy money around, they're going to be flooding the market with cheap cash for teams to get into bidding wars over players.

I mean, are United and Valencia going to actually pay down their debts?  Why?  When what fans want are those new summer signings!

So does that mean we wont get into the transfer market?  Obviously not.  I just think that if Arsene was secretive before, then I expect him to become The Shadow now to get his deals done.  Don't expect to hear about our signings until they've passed their physicals and are at Emirates with their shirts in their hands.  I also think we should expect him to follow on what his stated plan is -- two or three impact signings.  Don't expect us to overhaul the team.  Not that it was needed, but the idea of buying 4 or 5 players in this market is unlikely.  I mean, there you're talking anywhere between 50 and 70 million pounds easily!

In this brave new world, when even clubs like Barcelona (which pride themselves on bringing up their stars through their ranks) are setting such lofty proclamations aside and getting into the dirty part of business, it's good to see that Arsenal are not one of the clubs desperately racing to hand millions it doesn't have to a player it might not need.  It's easy to fall in love with the new headline of a brand new player joining the club.  Who doesn't love the spotlight?

Just remember that there's always a flip side.   For every mega-signing, there's a player being tossed to the side whose arrival was once heralded as the answer to all the problems (see: Van der Vaart; Sneijder).  And that those players arrived for real money...money that most clubs cannot afford to just dole out like candy.

Real Madrid can miss on a 10M pound signing and not miss a beat.  Most clubs can't afford to be so reckless.   Or to say it simpler, Arsenal cannot afford to be that reckless.

...and less than 48 hours later, I'm apparently proven wrong.

There's now strong links suggesting that Thomas Vermaelen, central defender and captain of Ajax is on the verge of a 10 million pound move to Arsenal.

The source?  Vermaelen himself, quoted from a Dutch newspaper as saying that the "move to Arsenal"
is the right move for his career.

So I guess we're either getting us some Dutch defending OR the man himself (the player and not his agent) is not being honest.

Which one do I believe?

Does that make the rumors of bids for Wolfsburg striker Edin Dzeko or Marseille's central defensive midfielder Lorik Cana any more true?

Or what of the rumored swap between us and Man City with Kolo Toure heading to Eastlands while we get...Micah Richards?

My head's spinning.

Silly season is in full swing and we haven't even had a full week!

Well the season ended and the real news dried up in a hurry.  No surprise on either case.  Of course, it being the silly season, rumors abound of arrivals, departures, hijackings and enough money being thrown around to build your own harem of supermodels. 

But if you've noticed that I've been absent, it's not by choice.  Life gets in the way.  And the rumors that are going around are not necessarily that exciting.  Let's look at them:

1. Arsenal will sell Emmanuel Adebayor to Milan: well, Ade's agent has come out and said no one's called him yet.  To be fair, Milan right now are too busy with the Kaka' deal, which is rumored to bring in anywhere between 50 and 70 million pounds. 

BUT the problem is that having just appointed Leonardo to take over Carlo Ancelotti, it's unlikely that the Milan braintrust has gotten together to determine how they're going to rebuild their side.  On top of that, with clubs like Chelsea after Pato, I think they're more worried about hanging onto their players than buying at the moment.

It could still happen, but not right now.

2. Arsenal will buy Christian Zapata, Thomas Vermaelen and/or Edin Dzeko.

On the outside, they look like the buys we need.  Zapata and Vermaelen are good defenders for Udinese and Ajax respectively.  Meanwhile Dzeko is the big, tough, score-crazy striker that Adebayor was two years ago.  

Except for one simple fact: Arsene Wenger is in China, scouting out there.  That doesn't mean they're not on our radar, but the simple fact is that players like Dzeko and Zapata are on EVERYBODY's radar.

Plus saying we're targeting a central defender "X" or "Y" just takes what everyone knows is our top transfer priority and tossing some young, heralded player's name out there and see what sticks.

So in short, as the silly season goes, remember that the majority of the "breaking news" are unlikely to come to fruition.  

Sooooo....the transfer window has closed and the Andrei Arshavin transfer saga has ended in....

...we don't know.

In fact, trust nothing you hear until there's an official announcement.  

Why?  Because in the last few hours, the deal was off for certain and on for certain.  Arshavin was in London.  No, wait, he's in Paris....or maybe back in St. Petersburg.  The sticking point was the transfer fee -- or the bonus Zenit want back or Arshavin's wage demands.  

In other words, everyone is trying to figure out what's really what and between Arshavin's agent running to everyone with a microphone, Arsenal's traditionally quiet mouth and Zenit trying to avoid the stink of being labelled the next Lyon (i.e. the club that holds transfer deals out for ransom), this is all getting very confusing.

And the snowstorm that blanketed the U.K. isn't making anything easier.

So...as I said: trust nothing.  Wait until an official announcement is made tomorrow morning and then we'll know whether or not Andrei Arshavin is an Arsenal player.

Fingers crossed because as we saw over the weekend, we need an infusion of creativity in a bad way.

So, after 24 hours of hearing that the deal for Arshavin was finally done, guess what?  It's not.

Instead we're being told that the deal is still tangled because Arshavin and Arsenal have yet to agree on personal terms.  I wrote yesterday that it seemed odd that this would be the case since everyone was reporting that Arshavin and the Gunners had already reached a basic deal and all they were waiting on was Zenit's approval.

So what's the hold up?   Uh...I don't know, but here are some of the reported issues:

1. Who pays the fees of Arshavin's agent?  We're talking about a fee along the lines of 2 to 3.5 million pounds.   Zenit want that fee to be paid by Arsenal.  Arsenal have never paid an agent's fees and that's unlikely to change now.  They feel that's something the player should pay.  And Arshavin's agent only cares that he gets his fee paid.

 2. Arshavin is seeking a pay packet over 100,000 pound per week.  The highest paid players at Arsenal right now are Adebayor and Fabregas -- at 80,000 pounds per week.  The idea that any new player (nevermind one that's yet to prove himself in the Premier League) would receive such a pay packet from Arsene Wenger is laughable and brings to question Arshavin's "desire" to leave Zenit.

 3. Zenit are still holding for a fee close to their 20 million pound valuation.  Uh, that's a deal breaker.

At this point (Tuesday night), I think that unless a miracle happens, this deal will not go through.  And part of me is disappointed -- as someone over at the WSD boards mentioned, imagine a midfield of Nasri, Cesc, Rosicky and Arshavin.  Then again, part of me just wants a resolution.

If Arsenal want to kill this deal and go looking elsewhere I understand.  

BTW, tomorrow's game pits us against Everton.  And don't look so surprised but we're only 9 points off the lead and 6 behind Liverpool and Chelsea.  In short, while I think a title challenge is still too far away, the Top 4 finish that we need isn't.  Tomorrow's game is paramount to that end.  And the last few days in the transfer window should bring some help.  

We always leave it late in the transfer window and we've been leaving it late in the league so far this season.  I can see both trends continuing.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/premier_league/arsenal/article5594933.ece

From all indications it appears so.  The long-protracted transfer saga of one Andrei Arshavin appears to have finally come to a conclusion as Arsenal appear to have landed their man.  

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24969029-2883,00.html

This article says the amount is AU$35 million (or approximately17 million pounds)...

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/arsenal-at-last-close-in-on-record-deal-for-arshavin-1516908.html

...which this article seems to confirm.  In short, that'd be Arsenal's transfer record purchase.

Now one small bit of pause: all the articles imply that terms have yet to be reached between Arshavin and the Gunners.  

But weren't they saying that Arshavin had already reached terms and that the hold up was Zenit's constant consideration of the transfer fee?

Fingers crossed this is finally reached its conclusion...and the club can go buy a defensive midfielder.  Hey, Bolton are tabling a 13M quid bid for Miguel Veloso!  Can we go find some loose change to challenge them?

*The quote is from the Matrix movies.  Right after Agent Smith's finally turned Neo into another one of his clones, he asks whether the battle is finished...right before all the Matrix explodes.  Here's hoping the same doesn't happen here.

So while we wait on news from the Arshavin front (latest rumors: he's going on strike at Zenit and won't report for their winter training trip to the United Arab Emirates while at the same time his agent says something could happen by next week),  the big news out there in this quiet transfer window is the massive offer Manchester City have reportedly made to AC Milan.  100 million pounds for one Ricardo Kaka'. 

Read that again.  100 million pounds.  Nearly 150 million dollars.  For one player.

That's more than double what Real Madrid paid for Zidane (the current European transfer record).  That's more than triple what City paid for Robinho (the current English transfer record). 

The first thought that rang in my head is: "Wow, how could Milan turn that down?"  But they went and did anyway.  The second thought was: "How would I use 100 million pounds on Arsenal?"

I think we can start by saying we wouldn't spend 100 million quid in one transfer window; nevermind on one individual player.  Arsene has never been one to go overboard on transfer fees -- instead preferring to pay lower amounts for unknown players that can be molded and added into the Arsenal rosters of the past and present.  When your most expensive purchases are Sylvain Wiltord, Jose Reyes and Theo Walcott, well, you're not exactly splashing the cash around.

But that's part of Arsene's point.  Spending so lavishly on any one player creates an imbalance in the locker room.  Players know that there's a new sheriff in town and that he's almost certainly untouchable.  They know that such a player is coming with an almost guaranteed starting spot penciled into the roster and that they have to acquiesce out on the pitch to whatever this new player demands.

The other problem it creates is an inflation of the prices in the transfer market for other players.  If Player X is worth 10 million quid but is sold for 20 million, then Player Y will think to himself "Oi, I'm better than that bloke!  I'm worth 25 million!"  And his club will think "Clearly Player Y is worth 30 million!"  Just ask Chelsea how it felt to be held hostage by Lyon over the transfers for Essien and Malouda.  But what could they do?  Lyon knew that Chelsea had splashed the crazy cash around and they weren't going to budge from their valuations. 

Or to bring it back to the start, why is Andrei Arshavin worth 20-27 million pounds according to Zenit St Petersburg?  He's 27 years old.  He's never played in any league outside the Russian league.  Before last season's run in the UEFA Cup and the run by the Russian National Team in Euro 2008, Arshavin was in no one's radar.  But a few big games and all of a sudden he's worth as much as the top players in Spain and Italy and Germany and England?

It's because clubs in the last few years have gotten used to big money transfers.  Players who'd be worth 2 million go for 5.  Players who are worth 10 would go for 16.  And a lot of those moves were made by the English clubs -- Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham being the prime suspects.  Guys who'd yet to prove themselves at the top levels going for 16-18 million quid.  Talented stars going for 25-30 million pounds. 

This is what people expect of major English clubs.  Unfortunately for them, Arsenal have never played that game.  And with the way the current global economy is going, the chances that they would start now are slim and none...with none having left already.

So let Zenit think Arsenal are capable of going mad like Manchester City.  We won't.  100 million pounds for one player? 

Do we look that batshite mad?