Three spots, five teams - the finals race

So it’s christmas weekend and there’s no A-League, but that doesn’t mean no news.

For starters, I think the A-League is missing out on blockbuster opportunities by not having a round over the festive weekend. A Christmas day double-header would be a ratings winner, and to counter the low crowds, just play the matches at smaller venues such as Gosford or Perth. The lack of live sport on the Australian Christmas day and night is painful, there’s a great opportunity waiting for a professional code to take it.

The groups for the Asian Champions League were drawn this week, and while the Asian Cup draw gave the national side the easiest group, Sydney and Adelaide have not been so lucky. The loading of the Asian federation in favour of the middle-east shone through, with both the Butcher boys and the inbreds getting ‘groups of death’. While the Chinese teams may not be the strongest of opposition (Melbourne dismissing a full strength C-League side in a preseason tournament a few months ago) the Koreans Seongnam should tonk Adelaide, while Urawa Reds will surely be too good for the negative Sydney. While some Victory fans want blood, and Sydney and Adelaide humiliated (in order to show their unworthiness in the tournament ahead of Melbourne) the reality is Australian teams have to be competitive in order to show we belong in the Champions League, and not a lesser continental tournament such as the Confederation or President’s Cup. The reality is, if the strongest two Australian teams come the end of this season were in these groups, they’d be hideously unfair compared to the easy ride the middle-east and eurasian teams seem to be getting. Distance travelled for an away trip really wouldn’t be an issue for an Australian club if it meant avoiding a J-League or K-League team.

So, with no A-League game to report on, here are my rather conservative predictions for the remaining for rounds of the season, which will decide who plays finals. Adelaide’s fairly soft run home should see their revival continue, while Sydney’s ability to grind out results will earn the chance to defend their playoff crown. While it would be a far more entertaining finals series if both Newcastle and the Central Coast qualified, the derby between the two in Round 19 will potentially be the decider of who gets fourth spot. If the Mariners want the upper hand in this race, they’ll have to start with a win against Melbourne on New Years’ Eve, so until 2007, enjoy the festive football in other areas around the globe.

And without further ado, here are my predictions for the final four rounds of the A-Leauge season, and final ladder:

winner - loser
draw - draw

Round 18

Perth – Adelaide
New Zealand – Queensland
Central Coast – Melbourne
Newcastle – Sydney

Round 19

Adelaide – Queensland
Newcastle – Central Coast
Sydney – New Zealand
Perth – Melbourne

Round 20

Central Coast – New Zealand
Melbourne – Queensland
Adelaide – Sydney
Perth – Newcastle

Round 21

Newcastle – Melbourne
Queensland – Sydney
New Zealand – Perth
Central Coast - Adelaide

Melbourne 51
Adelaide 36
Sydney 33
Newcastle 31

Central Coast 28
Queensland 24
Perth 20
New Zealand 10